Disillusioned

Success takes time as well as many other factors. Too often people don't give themselves enough time. Trading since 2003 (I believe this was the stated time or there about) is impressive, but not really a long time. Personally it took me about 3 years or so ust to get my total strategy together and then another 2 years to just get REALLY good at trade executions. Granted I wasn't trading full time, but I was always fully invested. Finally I got to the point of doing trading/investing full time and haven't punched the clock in over 2 years (started in the markets in '96, it takes time)

Too many times we put pressure on ourselves and unrealistic expectations. We get overextended in our personal lives which put strain on our trading lives and goals (debt, poisonous relationships, chemical dependence etc...). The markets aren't there to feed you on a daily basis. Feeding yourself on a daily basis from the fruits of your market labors is a byproduct, not an end result.

Lastly, if it's your passion, you will find a way. Market success is a journey, not an end result. Perhaps the most underrated aspect of this game is its psychology. It is mentally tough and often you will find things out about yourself you never knew. Maybe it's not so much your "system" as your attitude or angle of approach/attack. Constant personal growth in knowledge and technique is a must. Change is necessary for markets to be efficient and we also must accept that change.

I belive the death of one's ego in the face of the market is a must. It's much easier to lose your opinion than your capital. You must also be able to take a more wholistic/business approach to your trading and investing. Have you devised a successful money management system? Are you putting the effects of compounding in your favor? It's just not all about winning trades. Lastly, never mistake a bull market for brains. Too often this last mistake is made and results in the demise of many investors/traders. Remember, resources flow to the hands of those that are the smartest and most efficient, it just takes time.

Just some random thoughts and of course JMHO.

Good Luck.
 
Quote from BertH:
...

I admit to being confused as hell right now.

...

I'm just highly frustrated, disappointed, and disillusioned.

...

Not sure what to do right now.
More...

Maybe it's time to take a break? Just to cool down a bit. You sound very involved.
 
As you can see by my name, there actually is a holy grail. :D

I won't post much in this forum as I do not have the time to boast about anything I just did or am going to do. I spend 90% of my time going thru charts. I have had better than 20% returns for five consecutive years. It was exactly 5 years ago when I learned there was a holy grail.

The true HOLY GRAIL in trading is MONEY MANAGEMENT and POSITION SIZING!!!!

You can be right on your stock selection 30% of the time and still make good money in the market as long as you cut your losses short and let your profits run.

If you have a 100,000 dollar portfolio then pick a percentage loss you are willing to accept. Just remember that you can NEVER LOSE MORE THAT 2% OR 2000 in this example. It is far better to lower the risk to 1% when you are first starting out.

If you determine you wish to purchase a stock that has 2.00 risk (downside support) and a 5 dollar gain (upside resistance) then you can only buy a maximum of 500 shares of this particular stock if you wish to risk 1% of your portfolio.

If you wish to increase your succes rate then the only other thing you have to do is ALWAYS trade in the direction of the market. If you are not sure of the direction of the market THEN DO NOT TRADE! I normally only trade from September thru February of every year.

Obviously fundamental and technical analysis will help even further, but I can tell you one thing. You can randomly pick stocks and as long as your initial risk-reward ratio is at least 2:1 and you trade with the trend of the market you cannot help but make money.
 
Quote from BertH:

I PM'd someone I respect on this, but decided to convey it to the board. Why? Not so that I could personally discourage anyone else from trying it--after all, I admit to being confused as hell right now. That's hardly a position to tell others what to do or not to do.

First of all, the title of my PM says it all--I've reached a point of deep disillusionment regarding my trading. While I've not actually lost from what I started in my account (gained small amount), it's been too erratic to have any real confidence in.
When I started this journey a couple of years ago, I could damn sure swear I saw significant patterns--repeated enough in a manner that--with discipline--would render strong profits over time.

Alas, the more and longer I dig in, the worse it gets (through more closely analyzing past data, seeing it more thoroughly, perhaps). I find that "setups" I thought put the odds strongly in my favor were a form of mirage--something that pulled me in, only to let me down in the end. It's not the market's job to make me happy; it's just that all the mega-hours and, especially, hopes I had seem dashed at this juncture. I'm an analytical sort with something of a mathematical mind. I believed I could beat this game, because I have pretty good discipline, and figured the analytical side would create some trading strategies that worked a heckuva lot more than they didn't. Instead, it just seems like a useless pull and tug, going in a circle and ending in the same spot.

I still believe--in the end--there's got to be some kind of system(s) that utilize and take advantage of the predictable patterns of human psychology. I thought I had some that could figure these patterns on the charts, but it's quite possibly all BS.

I'm just highly frustrated, disappointed, and disillusioned. I'm not sure if I'll resume this game at some point or not. Maybe it is largely a "random walk," and even when it's not "random," do we know when that time is coming or happening? Is it a tradable edge, enough to warrant making significant bucks from?

For those of you who have figured it out enough to be consistently profitable, definitely more power to ya. Maybe I'll get there someday, maybe I won't. Not sure what to do right now. I thought I loved this deeply at one point--now, I'm honestly not sure I have the stomach or patience.

Thanks for the ear regarding the ramble.
Bert
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You have no system that you have back tested/forward tested
to give you confidence.

Also you probably dont understand the laws of probability and
how they relate to successfull trading. You probably think you
do, but really you dont. Even a fantastic system can go months
without making money.

Trading can be as hard or as easy as you make it.

There are long tails in price movements, everything else is
random, however most times you cant predict these long tails
but you can devise systems to catch them, most times these
signals will be counterintuitive and are unlikely to be found by
looking at charts.

Any edge that exploits these long tails is likey to be very small,
so you need to learn how to trade large size, and manage your
money to ensure that a long losing period doesnt confuse or
frustrate or bankrupt you.
 
Quote from BertH:


I still believe--in the end--there's got to be some kind of system(s) that utilize and take advantage of the predictable patterns of human psychology. I thought I had some that could figure these patterns on the charts, but it's quite possibly all BS.
More...

You are disillusioned because there is NO such thing as a SYSTEM to make you money..Not in trading, not in horse racing, not in lotto, etc....

To think you can develop something that will BEAT the market is being foolish....

You can make money on a stock but you can't beat the market...same as you can make money on A horse race but you can't beat the ponies!!

My advice to you is to give it up and never look back...do it for fun and if you make money, fine..otherwise you will just ruin your health.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

As you can see by my name, there actually is a holy grail. :D

I won't post much in this forum as I do not have the time to boast about anything I just did or am going to do. I spend 90% of my time going thru charts. I have had better than 20% returns for five consecutive years. It was exactly 5 years ago when I learned there was a holy grail.

The true HOLY GRAIL in trading is MONEY MANAGEMENT and POSITION SIZING!!!!

You can be right on your stock selection 30% of the time and still make good money in the market as long as you cut your losses short and let your profits run.

If you have a 100,000 dollar portfolio then pick a percentage loss you are willing to accept. Just remember that you can NEVER LOSE MORE THAT 2% OR 2000 in this example. It is far better to lower the risk to 1% when you are first starting out.

If you determine you wish to purchase a stock that has 2.00 risk (downside support) and a 5 dollar gain (upside resistance) then you can only buy a maximum of 500 shares of this particular stock if you wish to risk 1% of your portfolio.

If you wish to increase your succes rate then the only other thing you have to do is ALWAYS trade in the direction of the market. If you are not sure of the direction of the market THEN DO NOT TRADE! I normally only trade from September thru February of every year.

Obviously fundamental and technical analysis will help even further, but I can tell you one thing. You can randomly pick stocks and as long as your initial risk-reward ratio is at least 2:1 and you trade with the trend of the market you cannot help but make money.
More...

sorry to say but that ain't a holy grail for me, that is just some marginal survival.

Jesse Livermore aptly said: "Once when you know how to trade properly the millions come easier than the hundreds did when you were still in the dark" (And he averaged 150% on account per week)

Sherlock
 
Great thread and magnificent posts ! A true pleasure to read well thought out and constructive ideas. I specially appreciated oldtrader's post.

From my experience I can tell you that no system, money management, book, idea, best advice, time frame, instrument or length of time in front of the screen will make you profitable in this business UNTIL you change your own self concept.

The trick is making your conscious and subconscious mind work in harmony to take on the task of believing in yourself 100 percent of the time without fear or hesitation in an environment that is always uncertain and out of your control.

At the end it's all about psychology.

Good luck to you !
 
Quote from Beach Man:

You are disillusioned because there is NO such thing as a SYSTEM to make you money..Not in trading, not in horse racing, not in lotto, etc....

To think you can develop something that will BEAT the market is being foolish....

You can make money on a stock but you can't beat the market...same as you can make money on A horse race but you can't beat the ponies!!

My advice to you is to give it up and never look back...do it for fun and if you make money, fine..otherwise you will just ruin your health.
More...

Most STRONGLY disagree, there are systems that consistently make money. For one person that is using charts, for another person that is 100% mechanical and for another person again it is looking at the tape.

But it will take time (lots of it), dedication (lots of it) and hard work (lots of it). (and unfortunately, if you do not watch out, your health will suffer)

(Sitting on the beach does not help you getting there, it ain't that easy. lol)

Sherlock


As Sherlock Holmes said to Dr Watson: "Doctor, how often have you been to my house?"
Watson: "Hundreds of times"
Sherlock: "And you have noticed the steps to my study?"
Watson: "Yes"
Sherlock: "How many steps are there?"
Watson: "Err... Don't know, never counted them"
Sherlock: "There are 13 steps. You see, but you do not observe"
 
Quote from Lamont_C:

Depends on what you mean by "success" and the time period during which you're trading. If you started in early '03, you would have thought that this was about as easy a way to make money as one could wish for.

But we've gone more or less sideways for more than two years in both the Naz and the Dow. This has required a certain amount of adaptation. Those who have adapted to the contractions in daily ranges and the "creep" in trends have done fine. Those who have not have been whipped around until they don't know which way is up.

Therefore, if you're going to be successful over the long term, you're going to have to develop strategies which can be employed in a variety of market conditions. Otherwise, you will at best break even. The quicker you do this, the quicker you learn. The longer you put it off, the longer it will take.

So, five years? six months? Depends on what it is you're trying to do and how much effort you're willing to expend to do it.
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This thread is going along well, and I just want to warn those that might take it astray, not to. Keep up the quality posting.
I would like to invite more of our veteran members to come out of the shadows, and participate more freely in the monitored dialogues of this area.
 
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