Did Media Blow Greek Smoke Up Your Rectum? Is It Time To Short Yet?

[Lojanica]

Quote from Lojanica:

My predictions are just potential events. Trade price action not predictions. So far the market behaved as expected after a strong bullish move with little selling. It will take some time for the move to be digested and early shorts could be roadkill on the highway. FWIW it is safer to let the frontline get skewered and then take a retest of a trendline break rather than brave the arrows of institutional bulls waiting to feed on misguided small shorts.....

Inside day f/b outside day and not abear in sight, so far. A measured move would take us up over 1400 in the spoos but that would be? Crazy? I stand-by my 1360 call then a trading range into the end of August from 1300 to 1360

 

[shortie]

i do miss those larger dumps and the fear we had just two weeks ago.

this market is hopeless... there is a good chance VIX will drop to 10 this summer. i should consider quitting this profession...

 

[Locutus]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Exact metric is not important, late in earnings season there are many analysts that state the current earnings of the S&P 500 on a P/E basis. Ballpark is all you need. People would be surprised how badly the US markets have been lagging earnings growth.

Shiller I have no faith in there is some bias in his research and he was predicting market corrections August 2010 based on his numbers. I prefer the KISS approach. Current cash earnings.

The neat thing about Shiller P/E is that you don't have to predict earnings to have a clue about value. I don't think the S&P500 is lagging earnings significantly. By the way, how does Europe look according to your way of looking at it?

My point still remains (and which metric is important) that this method can only determine whether the market is cheap or expensive in hindsight because afaik nobody has been able to really predict earnings within a very narrow margin.

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

i do miss those larger dumps and the fear we had just two weeks ago.

this market is hopeless... there is a good chance VIX will drop to 10 this summer. i should consider quitting this profession...

I thought you are long?

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from noddyboy:

I thought you are long?

You did not notice him at the cashier? Apparently he was early, but I bet there were earlier people than him who visited the happy place.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from shortie:

i do miss those larger dumps and the fear we had just two weeks ago.

this market is hopeless... there is a good chance VIX will drop to 10 this summer. i should consider quitting this profession...

I am curious about what others think about what VXX would do? Divergence between some ETFs and VXX?

 

[Locutus]

Is it bullish when there is a sell imbalance and ES closes higher and rallies after the close a bit?

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from tradingjournals:

You did not notice him at the cashier? Apparently he was early, but I bet there were earlier people than him who visited the happy place.

I guess I don't keep track -- there are so many bears in bull clothing and bull in bear clothing. It is not really hard to buy some gold and more stocks without the constant second guessing.

CMG up >1%
LULU up > 2%

who cares about SPX or what level it was or will be at? If you have to worry, at least worry about what it IS at, which is higher on a presidential year.

 

[shortie]

Quote from noddyboy:

I thought you are long?

until last Thursday i was.

generally i like high VIX which tend to happen when the market drops. probably won't happen for a few months.

 

[shortie]

Quote from tradingjournals:

I am curious about what others think about what VXX would do? Divergence between some ETFs and VXX?

VXX will go down most likely because of Future roll costs. It is very hard for this beast to go higher. It really takes a big bad piece of news.