Did Media Blow Greek Smoke Up Your Rectum? Is It Time To Short Yet?

What's Your Short-term View?

  • Very Bullish

    Votes: 10 14.3%

  • Bullish

    Votes: 21 30.0%

  • Flat

    Votes: 15 21.4%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 15 21.4%

  • Very Bearish

    Votes: 9 12.9%
  • Total voters
    70
Quote from Locutus:

I wasn't bearish, depending on how you defined it. I was a bit worried about the lack of upside potential. Right now we're seeing some pretty phenomenal down pressure on the markets given the situation we're in, in Europe. Banks are getting hit very hard across the board.
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Look at the bigger picture for US markets. Its a summer market with volatility in both directions and no real commitment to break the trading range that its been in all year, despite huge news ( good or bad ) at various points. Not a great trading environment, in my opinion. Best to study your favorite equities and consider long positions if they oversell.

I suspect the next round of earnings reports will surprise to the upside because expectations are being downgraded all summer.
The end of QE2 has been priced into US equities for some time now, preventing this trading range from breaking out. If earnings do NOT drop as expected, the markets will rally. There is an underlying theory amongst many traders that QE is driving the huge earnings, and actual results will confirm this one way or another in the next two quarters.
 
Quote from Locutus:

I wasn't bearish, depending on how you defined it. I was a bit worried about the lack of upside potential. Right now we're seeing some pretty phenomenal down pressure on the markets given the situation we're in, in Europe. Banks are getting hit very hard across the board. I basically wanted to see some support level hold in an institutional buying kind of fashion and that happened at which point I returned from being bullish but worried (I guess you could call it neutral-ish) to just bullish.

I was also going to write a whole rant on how the US rating agencies are irrational and carry a pretty strong "We from the US recommend the US" bias. I think the timing of this downgrade is really shitty (luckily the debt market pretty much ignored it), that it's very unnecessary and that nobody really should care because rating agencies are really rarely right about anything.

But it's turned out today I don't have to, because a lot of EU officials have been saying the same thing (that this downgrade is going too far) and now the crown jewel: "EU's Barnier says EU could look into possibility of suspending ratings on EU countries receiving bailouts". IN YO FACE!
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The main driver for markets was QE2. The main headwind oil prices
Those upgrades/downgrades earnings just a noise
So QE2 is over, oil started to rise again
Now another headwind as bond prices must be capped especially after debt ceiling will be increased

So you have 3 major items which play against stocks. I strongly believe this is a bull trap. Although some near term event may hold market for some time but In September we will see a major break down in stock prices (S&P below 1200)
 
to put it mildly, i am not the best market timer out there. still, i called the last bottom quite well.

Nine_Ender, as I recall, at that time was saying what a great company RIMM was (got crashed on that call). Then he went into fetal position and disappeared from ET so typical of a perma-bull to be frozen in the headlights of Greek crisis.
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:



If earnings do NOT drop as expected, the markets will rally.
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earnings are not expected to drop. earnings are expected to rise 16% and as we know it's already discounted
so if earnings fall like you suggest we will be -30% overnight
 
Quote from shortie:

to put it mildly, i am not the best market timer out there. still, i called the last bottom quite well.

Nine_Ender, as I recall, at that time was saying what a great company RIMM was (got crashed on that call). Then he went into fetal position and disappeared from ET so typical of a perma-bull to be frozen in the headlights of Greek crisis.
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You nailed that bottom shortie! One more, and I think you should be "forced" to start a hedge fund.

I remember the 9guy always bullish even at tops in the famous weekly threads that you used to run sometime ago.

Shortie is one of the very Few, the Brave, ...

Guys: be nice (and thankful) to Shortie!
 
Quote from shortie:

to put it mildly, i am not the best market timer out there. still, i called the last bottom quite well.

Nine_Ender, as I recall, at that time was saying what a great company RIMM was (got crashed on that call). Then he went into fetal position and disappeared from ET so typical of a perma-bull to be frozen in the headlights of Greek crisis.
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Your recollection is terrible. What I said was IF I WAS SHORT I WOULD TAKE PROFITS PRIOR TO EARNINGS. Go ahead, quote any post I've made, but DO NOT ATTRIBUTE IDEAS I HAVE NOT POSTED TO ME.

And for the last time, I am no "perma bull". I've posted several excellent short ideas in the last year. But excuse me for a second here, I was extremely bullish about markets from late August 2010 to December 2010. You know why ? Because of fundamentals followed by a technical signal to buy. Oh, by the way, the markets went up 30%. So what are you hoping for, that I post bearish ideas in that market like the rest of you ?

Now, show me my "overly bullish" posts I've posted on here since April 1st. Even just a few.
 
Quote from kashirin:

earnings are not expected to drop. earnings are expected to rise 16% and as we know it's already discounted
so if earnings fall like you suggest we will be -30% overnight
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P/E levels do not support your opinion. US markets are extremely cheap on a historical basis based on current earnings. If they rise 16% then equities are ridiculously cheap and have to rally or the m&a activity will heat up again. Please try to be rational, if earnings really do go up 16% then what's to stop the markets themselves from rising 16% ??? Its definately not priced in, markets have gone nowhere all year.

Valuation is one of the most misunderstood factors on this site.
Sure, you can claim US debt levels or economic collapses in some countries can tank markets. But on a valuation basis, forget it.
Do the research.
 
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