Did Media Blow Greek Smoke Up Your Rectum? Is It Time To Short Yet?

[tradingjournals]

Quote from iceman1:

I have a market call...

I think the markets are going to go up and down this week, and next.

Anyone agree? !

LOL! You rephrased (well) the classical always correct prediction: the markets will fluctuate!

The modern tradeable version would be: would the amplitude of the fluctuations be higher or lower? So Iceman: will VXX rise or fall?

Good to hear from you Iceman!

 

[shortie]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Your recollection is terrible. What I said was IF I WAS SHORT I WOULD TAKE PROFITS PRIOR TO EARNINGS. Go ahead, quote any post I've made, but DO NOT ATTRIBUTE IDEAS I HAVE NOT POSTED TO ME.

And for the last time, I am no "perma bull". I've posted several excellent short ideas in the last year. But excuse me for a second here, I was extremely bullish about markets from late August 2010 to December 2010. You know why ? Because of fundamentals followed by a technical signal to buy. Oh, by the way, the markets went up 30%. So what are you hoping for, that I post bearish ideas in that market like the rest of you ?

Now, show me my "overly bullish" posts I've posted on here since April 1st. Even just a few.

"overly bullish" is vague. please quote your SINGLE SPECIFIC before the fact call (it has to include, entry, stop, exit before the fact or soon after they take place)

i am gonna venture a guess that i will be waiting for a very long time while you search for such a call....

 

[kashirin]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

P/E levels do not support your opinion. US markets are extremely cheap on a historical basis based on current earnings. If they rise 16% then equities are ridiculously cheap and have to rally or the m&a activity will heat up again. Please try to be rational, if earnings really do go up 16% then what's to stop the markets themselves from rising 16% ??? Its definately not priced in, markets have gone nowhere all year.

Valuation is one of the most misunderstood factors on this site.
Sure, you can claim US debt levels or economic collapses in some countries can tank markets. But on a valuation basis, forget it.
Do the research.

man, you have no idea what you're talking about

markets up 6.5% this year. add dividend and it's 7.5% return in 6 months
in the last year markets up 30%

major IPOs coming that take capital like LNKD with P/E about 100
market has enough internal bubbles

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

"overly bullish" is vague. please quote your SINGLE SPECIFIC before the fact call (it has to include, entry, stop, exit before the fact or soon after they take place)

i am gonna venture a guess that i will be waiting for a very long time while you search for such a call....

just to illustrate what i mean: here is an example of my recent SPY:GLD call that happen to work out really nice (even if i may have taken the profits too early)

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3222897#post3222897

 

[S2007S]

Markets rising again, nothing but a steady climb, looked as though there would be somewhat of a buying opportunity this morning, but that quickly went away as the markets pushed higher, now that they are higher all they have to do is keep them up until the close which should be no problem. A good jobs number on Friday and the DOW could easily break 13,000!

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

just to illustrate what i mean: here is an example of my recent SPY:GLD call that happen to work out really nice (even if i may have taken the profits too early)

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3222897#post3222897

Posted by myself in Neke's journal on February 13th, 2011 :

Quote from Nine_Ender:

POT calls have a huge premium so I'd say its dangerous to chase the trend so close to expiry. A play I like much better are Canadian banks which were flat in 2010 but are beginning what looks like a breakout into earnings ( early March ) now.

TD, BNS, CM all setting new 52 week highs last week. RY is a laggard play still $7 off its 52 week high but starting to slowly perk up. Call options remain fairly cheap because these stocks were range bound for 14 months.

March calls look wonderful but a correctly timed entry is almost can't miss. Any option week related dip is a huge buying opportunity. Not sure if we'll get the dip anymore, but the manipulations in expiry week are sometimes pretty transparent ( except to some of the permabears on here who think they are triggering a correction ).

I think I have an edge on this play and this sector looks like its going up another 10-20% very soon. I have one position now that I plan on selling on the first good day next week. I'll then redeploy my capital on March calls on any intraday dips in price.

Fundamentally, I predict TD Bank raises their dividend on March 3rd setting off a week long buying spree from "buy and hold" types in Canada and yield lovers in the US.

I bought a lot of March call options on this play and made a huge profit on earnings week. TD Bank did in fact raise their dividend, the first time in years. I made most of my money on the predicted RY move, with the payoff being in the 1000% to 3000% range,
depending on chosen entry and exit points.

Even bad entries and exits would have been highly profitable on my call. So there was no need to post exact entry and exit points, just follow my advice and cash in the big money.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

P/E levels do not support your opinion. US markets are extremely cheap on a historical basis based on current earnings. If they rise 16% then equities are ridiculously cheap and have to rally or the m&a activity will heat up again. Please try to be rational, if earnings really do go up 16% then what's to stop the markets themselves from rising 16% ??? Its definately not priced in, markets have gone nowhere all year.

Valuation is one of the most misunderstood factors on this site.
Sure, you can claim US debt levels or economic collapses in some countries can tank markets. But on a valuation basis, forget it.
Do the research.

They're only cheap if you had some kind of guarantee that earnings will come out as expected. I don't think I agree entirely that the markets are "cheap" right now. At best they are reasonably priced.

The reason I am still somewhat bullish is because of all the bear tears this rally is causing and the general disbelief that seems quite pervasive regarding to this rally. There's all sorts of reasons why it needs to reverse which is why I think I might go short a bit later than right now.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from Locutus:

They're only cheap if you had some kind of guarantee that earnings will come out as expected. I don't think I agree entirely that the markets are "cheap" right now. At best they are reasonably priced.

I'm talking on a valuation basis in the US. This is one of the most forgotten concepts on this site, almost no one looks at earnings and valuations. Its almost always an obsession with economics.

I think if you research it is clear that current US markets are cheap, but that they might be "reasonably priced" if you state that there is a deep discount due to economic uncertainty and expectations of falling earnings ( due to QE or any other factor ).

In comparism, Canadian markets are far more expensive then US markets on a valuation basis.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

I'm talking on a valuation basis in the US. This is one of the most forgotten concepts on this site, almost no one looks at earnings and valuations. Its almost always an obsession with economics.

I think if you research it is clear that current US markets are cheap, but that they might be "reasonably priced" if you state that there is a deep discount due to economic uncertainty and expectations of falling earnings ( due to QE or any other factor ).

In comparisn, Canadian markets are far more expensive then US markets on a valuation basis.

Define your valuation metric then. Shiller P/E, Forward P/E? What? P/B?

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from Locutus:

Define your valuation metric then. Shiller P/E, Forward P/E? What? P/B?

Exact metric is not important, late in earnings season there are many analysts that state the current earnings of the S&P 500 on a P/E basis. Ballpark is all you need. People would be surprised how badly the US markets have been lagging earnings growth.

Shiller I have no faith in there is some bias in his research and he was predicting market corrections August 2010 based on his numbers. I prefer the KISS approach. Current cash earnings.