Did Media Blow Greek Smoke Up Your Rectum? Is It Time To Short Yet?

[tradingjournals]

Quote from Locutus:

Maybe I'm seeing things, but I find it funny how news that people can create at an arbitrary time often comes out exactly as a breakout is about to occur.

For example today with the downgrade, it was exactly at the previous intraday high from last friday.

Also when in Europe it was about to break down into another leg lower the 17th everyone started suddenly to make comments on how everything was gonna be great. I really like the timing of these people, they coincide with technical support and resistance often for some reason.

Your story keeps changing. Below is your post of yesterday.

Yesterday, the institution guys were coming (and only vacation was holding them), and today the down grades. Is it not ing?

I want to see it above 137. It is only 2% away. Not far, so it should be easy, especially given the fact that it moved the same in one day only and not too long ago.

Quote from Locutus:

Oh no, the bull is much stronger now. Funny how today in Europe there was no volume and a lot of things immediately drifted downward. Very slowly of course, and support was found late in the day.

Not much institutional aggressiveness today, I suspect. Small fries wanna go down, we'll see if big volume tomorrow wants to make a new high or not. [/QUOTE

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from iceman1:

what I meant is:

the risk/reward of a 'reversal' or pullback increases........


what I was taught at CME was to look for a topping pattern such as a key reversal. Now, maybe that's old school and maybe things have changed in the markets. Has human nature changed in past 2 decades???

llol

It took the market about 25 minutes to deliver to your post a little reminder... It a few minutes, it cleared the work of the bulls of the whole day. Luckily for the bulls, the previous day low is a bit deeper. Tomorrow's previous day low would not be as deep as in today.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from tradingjournals:

It took the market about 25 minutes to deliver to your post a little reminder... It a few minutes, it cleared the work of the bulls of the whole day. Luckily for the bulls, the previous day low is a bit deeper. Tomorrow's previous day low would not be as deep as in today.

can you translate that into English.

TY

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from Lojanica:

We rallied rather than breaking down. It was a strong decisive move off of a solid trading range. Top of the range 1360. I doubt we runaway to 1400..

Too early to "safely" short especially with such bullish strength. Wait for 1360 and expect a retest of 1300. Spike and channel.

Squeaky tight day. No real downside as expected. My prediction still holds for now...

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from iceman1:

can you translate that into English.

TY

I need a translator myself, so I cannot translate, but the post was trying to refer to the little fast price decline of 2PM, and to the previous'day low, both can be checked on charts, with the former on today's chart, and the latter on today's chart and possibly on tomorrow's chart. If your request of translation is a different request, then disregard this answer.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from Lojanica:

Squeaky tight day. No real downside as expected. My prediction still holds for now...

What to do if 1360 is not visited in this leg?

 

[Lojanica]

My predictions are just potential events. Trade price action not predictions. So far the market behaved as expected after a strong bullish move with little selling. It will take some time for the move to be digested and early shorts could be roadkill on the highway. FWIW it is safer to let the frontline get skewered and then take a retest of a trendline break rather than brave the arrows of institutional bulls waiting to feed on misguided small shorts.....

 

[Locutus]

Quote from tradingjournals:

Your story keeps changing. Below is your post of yesterday.

Yesterday, the institution guys were coming (and only vacation was holding them), and today the down grades. Is it not ing?

I want to see it above 137. It is only 2% away. Not far, so it should be easy, especially given the fact that it moved the same in one day only and not too long ago.

Quote from Locutus:

Oh no, the bull is much stronger now. Funny how today in Europe there was no volume and a lot of things immediately drifted downward. Very slowly of course, and support was found late in the day.

Not much institutional aggressiveness today, I suspect. Small fries wanna go down, we'll see if big volume tomorrow wants to make a new high or not. [/QUOTE

Nobody cares where you want to see it go and it's obvious the market will come off a little bit initially on news such as a downgrade. I can't predict what the big traders are going to do, however usually they keep doing the same thing for a while and indeed monday none of them were active (except maybe selling French financials, there was some stuff going on there) given the volumes on the ES and the European markets. Today there wasn't much pressure in any direction either, but it was obvious there was support in the market and opportunistic shorts got their asses handed to them.

It tanked a bit more than I'd thought when the news first came out and then went back to make a new day high anyway. To me a sign that the market is far from overbought.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from shortie:

This is certainly a great market for those who can catch these monster turns.
Just a few days ago it was "the end of civilization" due to the Greek crisis. By now we have put up 5 monster Up days.
So what is exactly that we are witnessing here:
a relief rally?
Short covering?
end of quarter rally, first of the month rally?
is Greek news only now fully baked in?
is the market expecting even more good news soon?

could the market re-test the lows again or was it just a bad dream for Longs?
Is it safe to Short now? Oscillators show overbought (e.g. SPY RSI(5)=84).
VIX has totally collapsed and touched 15, the level we saw during Feb Top, but still not as low as Apr Top.

If you find yourself arguing with the market, one thing to try is shortening your timeframe, if you feel the need to trade counter-trend. The last thing you want to do is have a trade moving against you long enough that you start to stew over it. It just ends up making for revenge trading. You want to know if you are right or wrong in relatively short order, relative to your typical trading timeframe.

 

[shortie]

Quote from logic_man:

If you find yourself arguing with the market, one thing to try is shortening your timeframe, if you feel the need to trade counter-trend. The last thing you want to do is have a trade moving against you long enough that you start to stew over it. It just ends up making for revenge trading. You want to know if you are right or wrong in relatively short order, relative to your typical trading timeframe.

excellent advise!