Did DB and the Price Action Scribblers Throw in the Towel?

[stillgrinding]

Ok. Ill be direct. There's no edge to the method. The method is fatally flawed on numerous levels. But heck, astrologer arch crawford has the top performing timing newsletter of all time. Isnt astro fatally flawed?

As far as "real" edges go, I only know of three. 2 of them were used by a good friend of mine while he traded for a firm. 1 of them only worked on very illiquid closed end funds so he could not add very much size when his edge appeared. The other worked like a charm until FINRA called him in for an investigation and his boss no longer allowed it. (still could be done though), and the last edge is/was the true market makers edge. He used to tell me that my method had no edge, but I'm still trading and he has moved on.
While I agree that "real" edges are few and far between ,there is a "statistical" edge to trading price action. I took 3 trades this morning in NQ. 2 were losers. 1 made more than enough to cover a weeks worth of living. I also took 4 trades in CL. 1 was a scratch, 2 losers, and 1 paid me big time. I was finished before the market open. Does this happen every day? Of course not. But I have a hard copy printed of every trading day for the last year. (only for CL). My biggest losing day was -55 ticks. My biggest winning day was + 212 ticks. I don't have very many losing weeks.
It's not for everyone I guess, but whatever. I'll see you next week. Have a good weekend.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Sure, there may be a few savants who via intuitive gifts and strong money management skills who can do it.

My contention is thst the way the scribblers stright liners breathlessly and verbosely preach and teach in these forums is fatally flawed Not to mention, even fewer savants want to teach and are often loner genius types. Outliers in other words which makes the success of the tribe here even more unlikely.

Having known many succesful traders, these folks simply dont fit the profile and in fact, seem to be the type most attracted to the market who are the ones most likely to lose.

Just my observations, surf

CORRECT. --and I do want to thank you for the money management bump. That's really the only true edge in trading anyway.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

While I agree that "real" edges are few and far between ,there is a "statistical" edge to trading price action. I took 3 trades this morning in NQ. 2 were losers. 1 made more than enough to cover a weeks worth of living. I also took 4 trades in CL. 1 was a scratch, 2 losers, and 1 paid me big time.

This is tantamount to an agreement that money management is the only true edge in trading. Thanks for the posting.

 

[jsp326]

While I agree that "real" edges are few and far between ,there is a "statistical" edge to trading price action. I took 3 trades this morning in NQ. 2 were losers. 1 made more than enough to cover a weeks worth of living. I also took 4 trades in CL. 1 was a scratch, 2 losers, and 1 paid me big time. I was finished before the market open. Does this happen every day? Of course not. But I have a hard copy printed of every trading day for the last year. (only for CL). My biggest losing day was -55 ticks. My biggest winning day was + 212 ticks. I don't have very many losing weeks.

None of that proves a statistical edge.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

None of that proves a statistical edge.

But he does describe money management (cutting losses short and letting winners run) as being why he did well. You are correct--he does not show a statistical edge to price action trading. He does though show a glimpse of statistical edge to money management trading.

 

[kut2k2]

But he does describe money management (cutting losses short and letting winners run)

That's not money management.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

It most certainly is.

 

[Tavurth]

How were you measuring the quality of users? I don't see too many people posting up broker statements.lol

I was referring to the quality of posting, use of aggression, and insecurity.
After seeing many posts from a user, I find it fairly easy to draw some conclusions about their trading profitability.

What might be more interesting: Are the poor quality posters useful for the site?

 

[kut2k2]

It most certainly is.

No.

Cut losses short = exit strategy.

Let winners run = exit strategy.

Money management = position sizing ("how much money do I place on my next trade?")

It's not rocket science. Seriously, it's not.

 

[londonkid]

I was referring to the quality of posting, use of aggression, and insecurity.
After seeing many posts from a user, I find it fairly easy to draw some conclusions about their trading profitability.

Yes I concur. Being able to manage the emotional part of the brain and the rational part of the brain are vital to being a successful trader. Someone who is wildly emotional with all or nothing thinking is going to find it very hard to succeed in this business, there may be exceptions but I haven't met any yet.