DeSantis for the win

gwb-trading said:
At this point I actually expect DeSantis to win the Florida's gubernatorial election in 2022. However it is still early and things can change. However the fact that some polls are showing DeSantis not in the lead at this point is not a good sign for his prospects -- I would normally expect a governor who is definitively going to win an election to have a 10 point lead against any possible opponent one year out from the election.
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Ok, so he wins. We agree. So the polling is a bunch of bunk (as polling tends to be).
 
Tsing Tao said:
Ok, so he wins. We agree. So the polling is a bunch of bunk (as polling tends to be).
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I tend to agree that from a "getting elected" perspective -- polling is only meaningful much closer to the election.

Popularity polls for politicians will regularly swing up & down by 10 points or more as they encounter (and either handle or mishandle) crises throughout their terms in office -- does not matter if it is DeSantis or Biden (who is hitting lows due to Afganistan) or anyone else in higher state-wide or national positions.
 
Ricter said:
Nothing wrong with 800 per se, the statistical significance was given.
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800 in the group meant to infer the patterns of millions of voters. The statistical significance is impossible to determine with accuracy on an opinion poll.

Imagine using 800 days of data to create a trading model with a high R-square or statistical significance. That is based on factual past data and creating a model to fit the data.

asking 800 people what their OPINION is on a candidate is by definition a sample size of the larger population with the INFERENCE that 800 people can speak for a few million. That is quite a statistical leap that hold little credibility to be honest. Simply saying a 3.5% margin of error is a false variance implied into the data, not one that is supported by proof that these 800 truly represent the larger population.
 
DeSantis lost again...

what lawyers are advising him....Rudy?

DeSantis rule banning some local mask mandates overturned by Florida court

Judge says the ban violates parent's bill of rights
 
El OchoCinco said:
800 in the group meant to infer the patterns of millions of voters. The statistical significance is impossible to determine with accuracy on an opinion poll.

Imagine using 800 days of data to create a trading model with a high R-square or statistical significance. That is based on factual past data and creating a model to fit the data.

asking 800 people what their OPINION is on a candidate is by definition a sample size of the larger population with the INFERENCE that 800 people can speak for a few million. That is quite a statistical leap that hold little credibility to be honest. Simply saying a 3.5% margin of error is a false variance implied into the data, not one that is supported by proof that these 800 truly represent the larger population.
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Assuming the 800 were chosen randomly from the whole, they do represent the whole, for the same questions, to the degree of confidence indicated. For 150 million voters, a sample size of 2400 or more would be ideal, yes.
 
After the previous Florida Surgeon General left his position due to Gov. DeSantis excluding him from events and decisions --- simply due to Scott Rivkees providing proper pandemic guidance early in 2020 on social distancing and proper public health practices -- it will be hard to find a proper medical professional to step up and fill the position. DeSantis will probably just fill the role with some obscene quack like a "doctor" from the "America's Frontline Doctors" crowd.

Finding a new Florida surgeon general amid the pandemic could be difficult
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article253801758.html
 
Ricter said:
Assuming the 800 were chosen randomly from the whole, they do represent the whole, for the same questions, to the degree of confidence indicated. For 150 million voters, a sample size of 2400 or more would be ideal, yes.
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There is no accurate way to account for statistical significance with a small sample size to infer a large population when the sample size is determined by opinion and self classification.

R squared and Z scores are meaningless based on opinion data versus hard data.
 
Let's see what a local health official has to say in Florida. No sign of a peak yet in Florida; they need the vaccination level to go up. DeSantis should be strongly focusing on vaccinations.

Interesting to note in the article that the percentage of Floridians wearing maks has risen to 42% as of August 17th. So at least responsible people are attempting to take actions to protect the health of society in Florida.

Health official alarmed at COVID vaccination levels, sees no end in sight
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story...cination-levels-sees-no-end-sight/5619857001/
 
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