Demoralized. Is 14 losses in a row normal?

bpr said:
short answer yes ...
Here is a table that I have built which calculates probability of n consecutive looser over N trades for given w winning percentage ...
This is based on a formula I found from internet ...so not sure how accurate ...
You can see for 42% win percentage row ...I would say a win is very close

View attachment 199020
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Is this out of 100 trades?
 
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The answer to the OP question is that it depends on market conditions. If your system or method gives those results (42% win rate etc) in certain market conditions but then those conditions change, then you cannot expect the same numbers. Could be worse or better.
 
schweiz said:
Hard, but true. I never trade (intraday) a system that has less then 50% winning trades. As it means that I am more stupid then doing random entries.
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Some trading systems are low probability but high payout. < 50% win but >> 1 Win/loss expectancy could be a good system. Best example is venture investing, with win probability usually < 10%.
 
Risepoint1879 said:
So I've been on an upward equity curve for the past 2 months or so, over about 200 trades.

My general ratio is this. About 22% 2.7R winners, 20%partial winners(.5R), and 58% 1R losers. R=$460.

This should leave me with about 6k profit per month on a 29k account. I achieved this on my smaller account of 5k before.

And I have now just lost 14 trades in a row over the past 3 days. Right after scraping together 29k for an Interactive Brokers account. Just fell below PDT cutoff.

I did not do anything differently. Nothing worked out. I've had one winner in the last 15 trades.

This feels horrible, and I can't imagine winning a trade again.But something tells me that a 14 trade losing streak, while very unlucky, is completely possible using my winrate percentages. Am I just experiencing a drawdown that I have to get past?

Ps: (Only genuine advice please, I don't need cynicism or mean spirited comments right now.)

Ps 2: (If your system take profit at 2R, don't compare our win rates)
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Shouldn't give up or despair if you have faith in your system. After all trading is a game of probability.

Some traders here advocated when they had a losing streak, they reduced their trade size to prevent the unlikely case that could lead to "risk of ruin". And when the win/loss turns positive, they gradually increase bet size back to normal.

Also, pay attention to your Kelly.
 
I've batted 21 profits in a row, then batted a 17 losing streak right after.

Fairly simple, the method suited the market conditions hence profit, then it stopped hence loss, sadly the market changes and then slaps you for being pig headed and not changing with it.

Finding something, to get to the stage of just making money virtually every day has proven to be a tricky 10years :)
 
ironchef said:
Some trading systems are low probability but high payout. < 50% win but >> 1 Win/loss expectancy could be a good system. Best example is venture investing, with win probability usually < 10%.
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I know, theoretically/mathematically even less then 1% winning trades can be profitable.
But the most profitable is to have 100% winning trades with very high payouts. So I try to get as close as possible to that. I tried below 50% winning trades and it did not work for me. I prefer a system that works in all kinds of markets and gives a constant positive cashflow with no drawdowns.
Only problem is to get close enough to that.
 
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