So I've been on an upward equity curve for the past 2 months or so, over about 200 trades.
My general ratio is this. About 22% 2.7R winners, 20%partial winners(.5R), and 58% 1R losers. R=$460.
This should leave me with about 6k profit per month on a 29k account. I achieved this on my smaller account of 5k before.
And I have now just lost 14 trades in a row over the past 3 days. Right after scraping together 29k for an Interactive Brokers account. Just fell below PDT cutoff.
I did not do anything differently. Nothing worked out. I've had one winner in the last 15 trades.
This feels horrible, and I can't imagine winning a trade again.But something tells me that a 14 trade losing streak, while very unlucky, is completely possible using my winrate percentages. Am I just experiencing a drawdown that I have to get past?
Ps: (Only genuine advice please, I don't need cynicism or mean spirited comments right now.)
Ps 2: (If your system take profit at 2R, don't compare our win rates)
You've left out so much critical information.
For example, is your trade method backtested and was it simulated traded ?
If so, you'll already know then if losing 14 consecutive trades is the worst case scenario via your backtest results and simulated trading results prior to such occuring in your real money trading.
Another example, you state you made 6k of a 5k account in the past. Oddly, you don't mention when such was achieved in in what type of market conditions. My point, most likely you're not using an automated trading system and you didn't maintain statistics beyond the general info you posted.
Another example, did you maintain similar like position size when you realize you hit a losing streak and at what number of losses did you consider it a "losing streak". For example, pretend you realize its a losing streak at losing trade #5 and your stats show the worst case scenario of losing 8 consecutive trades...
You should have reduce your position size dramatically no later than the 8th consecutive losing trade and as early as the 5th consecutive losing trade until the losing streak is broken. Then when the losing streak is broken...you "gradually" begin increasing your position size until you return back to normal trading.
Reality, whatever you're trading...you're definitely trading within
different market conditions than when you made that 6k on a 5k account and you're trading/applying your trade method
differently but just have not come to grips on how you're trading differently especially if you're not automated.
wrbtrader
