delayed opening

I trade plenty of grains without paying any attention to USDA or any other fundamentals. It can be done.

That said I can't figure out why I keep wiping out my trading account.....:D :D :D
 
Quote from jeb9999:

You people have to be joking.

How can you trade the grains without knowing when the USDA reports come out? :confused:
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So, I just asked this question in the other thread. Any suggestions on *which* reports are significant? USDA issues reports of some type every other day.
 
Quote from Shagi:

Heech its the monthly reports and you don't need notice. Diary! where is it?

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm#monthly
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Shagi,

Hmm, I don't know if its that simple? I noticed yesterday (after the fact) that IV in the bean options was substantially up, about 2-3% from day before.

Looking through my historical IV chart versus when these monthly reports are issued... I'm not sure I see a real correlation. It really seems like there was something special about *this* report.

Is it primarily the harvest + planting months that we need to be especially careful?
 
To answer my own question... wow, it's so obvious now in hindsight that we saw almost exactly the same thing last year.

IV popped by 4% on 10/8, the day before the report was published. Prices soared 3% the following day (and 3% more the following Monday).

I'll ignore 2008, because the crisis obviously throws that out of proportion. But in 2007, we saw similar pattern... IV popped by a good 2%+ on 10/11/07, the day before. It really looks like putting on some long option hedges are a popular strategy, and something I'll have to remember in the future.

The end of quarter reports are also significant, yes? I see similar pops in IV right before 3/30, 6/30, and 9/30.
 
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