delayed opening

[local]

Quote from heech:

So, I just asked this question in the other thread. Any suggestions on *which* reports are significant? USDA issues reports of some type every other day.

All usda reports are important and if you want to make a living at trading grains you have to pay attention. As for this past week, the market was anticipating a bullish report for corn throughout the week as evidenced by a very significant tightening of the spreads. The z10/z11 traded from even money to a high of 58 over today. This is telling the market something very important. I had an excellent week trading corn flat price and spreads only because I was paying attention to the spreads. I have a trading floor background as a local and as any local will tell you, knowing what is happening to the spreads will reveal much about the flat price.

Regards, local

 

[mizhael]

Quote from heech:

Shagi,

Hmm, I don't know if its that simple? I noticed yesterday (after the fact) that IV in the bean options was substantially up, about 2-3% from day before.

Looking through my historical IV chart versus when these monthly reports are issued... I'm not sure I see a real correlation. It really seems like there was something special about *this* report.

Is it primarily the harvest + planting months that we need to be especially careful?

IV may not tell you much - IV is a measurement of uncertainty...

when the report is due, of course the uncertainty is high, hence the jump in IV...

but the realized outcome can be random: prices going up or down...