Daytrading. The illusion of a TREND

i think the higher timeframe bars represent trends better because, besides technicals, fundamentals come into play a lot heavier and human emotions are not as powerful as on the intraday charts. decisions are much more thought out. you can't really talk about order flow on the monthly chart .... at least that's what i'm pondering.

i think that for the sake of the discussion we should stick to the point and to daytrading specifically.

is there a point in trading trends intraday, or is it something else worth the attention?
 
Quote from alex.samant:

moving on...

i want to bring this discussion further.

looking over a year's worth of data (i had to plot the sessions in excel as the fx daily chart is useless) i saw that zone that had large accumulation of stops either from the european or from the asian session had a large chance of getting hit in the next session.

that got me thinking. market makers live on commisions (and not only that). for them orders are very important. so to me it seemed more rational that the market would be heading into the largest stop areas rather than respecting an underlying trend...

at least for while in the session, the rational movement would be that: to generate commisions. after that, what orders come into the market could drive the market in the direction it has been heading. but on the other hand, they may not be sufficient.

so i concluded the only rational and expectable direction in a day would be the shortest (most efficient) way to the nearest and most reasonable in size stop zone. (either buy or sell stops).

opinions?
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Alex,

Most of what you have written so far has been so spot on that I wish you did not post it. :-)

When I started looking seriously at Wyckoff's and Taylor's writings and turned off the MACD, the RSI, and all that other s&$%, that was the moment I became consistently profitable. The key is to try to figure out where traders place their stops, and then take advantage of the false breakouts.

That's all I do in my intraday trading.
 
Quote from alex.samant:

...

i think that for the sake of the discussion we should stick to the point and to daytrading specifically.

is there a point in trading trends intraday, or is it something else worth the attention?
More...

It should be clear that there are no trends in intraday trading. Prices move at random and jump up and down without taking any direction.
All experts agree on that.
To prove they are right i add a chart for the ES for the last week. See for yourself, there are no trends at all that can be found.
Daytrading trends is the biggest illusion that exists.
 

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Quote from spike500:

It should be clear that there are no trends in intraday trading. Prices move at random and jump up and down without taking any direction.
All experts agree on that.
To prove they are right i add a chart for the ES for the last week. See for yourself, there are no trends at all that can be found.
Daytrading trends is the biggest illusion that exists.
More...
LOL, thanks for the laughs spikek500, you're always good for a few chuckles.

I could find a fuck'in trend either to save my life. :mad:

Jimmy Jam

P.S. Elite Trader has become such a wank job.
 

Attachments

Quote from spike500:

It should be clear that there are no trends in intraday trading. Prices move at random and jump up and down without taking any direction.
All experts agree on that.
To prove they are right i add a chart for the ES for the last week. See for yourself, there are no trends at all that can be found.
Daytrading trends is the biggest illusion that exists.
More...

All Experts???:D

I guess I make money following an illusion.
Whatever works.
 
Quote from Boib:

All Experts???:D

I guess I make money following an illusion.
Whatever works.
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LOL, spike500 was being about as facetious as you can get Boib.

JJ
 
Quote from spike500:can you tell me how you call this? See chart attached.
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actually that chart proves my point, unless you really trade monthly and which case your an investor not a trader. if you look at that same length of data on even a daily chart you will see there is far more chop than not.

mb
 
Of course intraday has trends, keyword being trends and not trend, for the most part.

Adjust chart size if the volatility bothers you until you find what's comfortable.

Anek
 
Quote from Anekdoten:

Of course intraday has trends, keyword being trends and not trend, for the most part.

Adjust chart size if the volatility bothers you until you find what's comfortable.

Anek
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but here is my point - if anyone will take the free their mind and accept that the human eye only focuses on the moves which apparently make money - the so called trend.

you will see that there is far more data that chops than trends - this is what my eyes see. so why bother with a rear so called trend when their is so much chop.

you have to get used to making lots of small winning trades and loosing big being in the wrong direction of a so called trend. i sincerely hope someone can see my point, i think its valuable.

mb
 
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