Daytrading. The illusion of a TREND

This is a sample of yesterday trading the ES:


short at the opening because the intraday trendsystem defined the trend clearly as short.

the short trend became confused and was not confirmed, so i had to reverse to long as the move was not confirmed as noise.

short again because the short trend was very clear again.

the rectangular was confirmed as noise because the trendsystem got confirmation of the trend as short before we entered the rectangular. stay short.

out 1 hour before the close. intermediate bottom and almost end of the day, so take profit.

the profit was about 75% of the daily range. if you take in account the slippage of the different trades the profit was even higher (about 80%).

I live in a different timezone (+ 7 hours), so the timestamps are not correct for the US.

in hindsight there was clearly a down trend, and the right direction was taken.
 

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guys, I appreciate the posts.

But listen, let's not turn this into a personal battle.

Let's accept that we all have different approaches to trading.

Let's break it down into PROs and CONs.

Why not everyone who is a trend trader state the PROs and CONs of following a trend

and also

Each one who trades regardless of trend (by looking at S/R) state the method in particular (it doesn't have to go into too much detail) and state it's PROs and CONs.

I think that by doing this we will be able to make this a fairly insightful thread.

Since you already took the time to post on it.... why not make it eloquent.
 
Every trade is trendfollowing, but most people don't realize they are trading in the direction of the trend.

Show me any trade and i prove to you that the trade is trendfollowing. Making money is inherent to trendfollowing.

Trends go far beyond what i posted in my charts.
 
Quote from alex.samant:

Each one who trades regardless of trend (by looking at S/R) state the method in particular (it doesn't have to go into too much detail) and state it's PROs and CONs.
More...

Support and resistance work better if you trade them with the trend.
 
ok, then let me make my statement/request clearer.

When I talk about trading with the trend i am referring to:

a) spotting an already existing trend
b) spotting where is support in an uptrend and where is resistance in a downtrend
c) execution when price reveals support / resistance holds so there will probably be another move (leg) with the underlying trend


when i am referring to trading regardless of trend i am talking about (and this is just an example)

a) spotting a confluence of zones that all mean support or resistance (monthly highs coupled with pivot resistance coupled with a higher timeframe fib level, coupled with let's say yesterday's high for example)
b) spotting increased order flow that would confirm the expected move north/south as a result of that support/resistance zone

i think it's pretty clear what i mean and we can easily rule out abstract posts....
 
Simple.

Learn to trade both. What's wrong with that?

Why conclude that trend is "this" or "that"?

These kind of "definition" leads to losing perspective of finding and trading an edge.

"Some" posters in here need to wake up.
 
Quote from MarkBrown:

but here is my point - if anyone will take the free their mind and accept that the human eye only focuses on the moves which apparently make money - the so called trend.

you will see that there is far more data that chops than trends - this is what my eyes see. so why bother with a rear so called trend when their is so much chop.

you have to get used to making lots of small winning trades and loosing big being in the wrong direction of a so called trend. i sincerely hope someone can see my point, i think its valuable.

mb
More...

http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/~mattd/Cmabrigde/

Flaws of human pattern recognition. Works in the same way as charts.
 
Quote from TSGannGalt:

http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/~mattd/Cmabrigde/

Flaws of human pattern recognition. Works in the same way as charts.
More...

The human brain is not fitted for trading. The first thing you have to do is train and reeducate your brain to make it efficient in trading. This can take years because you have to reprogram all built-in automatism. Most people don't even realize that their brain works against them instead of for them.


http://www.thetradingdoctor.com/pdf/ThisIsYourBrainOnTrading.pdf
 
Quote from spike500:

The human brain is not fitted for trading. The first thing you have to do is train and reeducate your brain to make it efficient in trading. This can take years because you have to reprogram all built-in automatism. Most people don't even realize that their brain works against them instead of for them.


http://www.thetradingdoctor.com/pdf/ThisIsYourBrainOnTrading.pdf
More...

The word "ALL" is incorrect.

A brain only functions the way it's made. A better way to say this is some of the conscious function of the brain is useful in trading, the rest isn't. For a Regular Joe, like you and me (excluding autistic traders like Rearden Metal in ET... "fact"), you have to create a switch where you utilize the useful functions of the brain. In a sense, it's synonymous to "zoning" in.

A good analogy that system traders talk about is about the difference between computers and brains. It's built differently for different objective reasons, there's no point of trying to make one act like the other.

Also... We (Science) only understands 10% (some say 30%) of the capacity of a brain. As a matter of fact, if we understood 1/2 of the brain's function, we would see robots running around ruling over the world.

Artificial intelligence (computationally and theoretically) has not even reached the level of a monkey, which said to be around IQ 5... Here's a list of IQ levels:

Below 30
Illiterate Unemployable. Institutionalized.

30 to 50
1st-Grade to 3rd-Grade Simple, non-critical household chores.

50 to 60
3rd-Grade to 6th-grade Very simple tasks, close supervision.

60 to 74
6th-Grade to 8th-Grade "Slow, simple, supervised."

74 to 89
8th-Grade to 12th-Grade Assembler, food service, nurse's aide

89 to 100
8th-Grade to 1-2 years of College. Clerk, teller, Walmart

100 to 111
12th-Grade to College Degree Police officer, machinist, sales

111 to 120
College to Master's Level Manager, teacher, accountant

120 to 125
College to Non-Technical Ph. D.'s. Manager, professor, accountant

125 to 132
Any Ph. D. at 3rd-Tier Schools Attorney, editor, executive.

132 to 137
No limitations. Eminent professor, editor

137 to 150
No limitations. Leading math, physics professor

150 to 160
No limitations Lincoln, Copernicus, Jefferson

160 to 174
No limitations Descartes, Einstein, Spinoza

174 to 200
No limitations Shakespeare, Goethe, Newton
 
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