Daytrading- Big Picture and Volume Analysis

Quote from doli:

Maybe the high volume in the market's decline indicates that the market is in for some more trouble, right?
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Doli,

Every significant rally or decline will have high volume relative to the timeframe in question.

I can further state that the most significant price moves that develop up or down, have one participant (buyer/seller) very patient, while the other paticiapnt is very anxious at the same time.

That said, you can never predict when these condtions will develop, nor how far price will move (well I know I can't)

It is easy, however, to watch how this activity develops, and make high probability assumptions about what is taking place in the present tense, without having to predict the outcome.

I have no idea if price will crash through the lows of today, or will rally 100 points higher tommorrow, however I can see exactly what is going on in the present tense and at times make high probabaility assumptions about what will happen next as long as the conditions in place dont change.
 
07-16-2008- Pre-Open comments- 7:45 am- Price =1213.00

Well we have the CPI out of the way (Biggest rise since 1982), so now the market can continue on its logical path. Our early trend is still down in line with the sell off at the end of the day yesterday.

It is also nice that my big picture resistance, lines up perfect with both the pullback to swing area, and over night session highs near 1220.

Also, keep in mind, that what’s really going on now is we are right in the middle of a 1230-1200 bracket that has formed, and nothing truly significant will happen until we move out this area.

In short time, many clues will emerge as to where price is likely to go in the big picture

Options at the open:

1. If price stays here at the open, I will look to sell based on more patient sell setups. If price moves lower I will be more aggressive looking to sell to start
2. Price will have to move and hold above 1220 area before any early buys can develop.
 

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11:30 CST

Price at the highs of the day, are "not generating sales." In a dual auction market, this means those wanting to sell are now way above this area.

Therefore, if they remain patient, price goes much higher.. If they cant get their price, they will grow anxious, and price goes much lower.

As we watch what evolves either up or down, we will see what high probability trades develop.

For instance if price moves down and this brings in more volume, this is like the Handbag example, where $5000.97 was too high, and price will have to move lower as the bags need to go on sale.
 

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12:00 CST

But heres what happens..Price moves down and does not bring in more volume. This tells us there is high probability that price is not going on sale just yet, and sets up a good short term buy...
 

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Well on my very first post here I described how an ongoing tug of war is going on between patient buyers and patient sellers at all times in the market, and how reading volume properly can set up high probability zones to trade in over and over again.

I discussed how price will seek out the patient buyers and patient sellers in the market according to the level of anxiety for each participant.

I immediately got a response "Well I guess this solves everything. All you have to do is place a big order somewhere and price will go there, and everything else is just a complete waste of time"

Others attacked for using Volume in any form whatsover to help screen for high probability setups.

All I can say is I do this over and over again, and the reason it "works" as a high probability indicator (no its not perfect) is because it is the basis behind what causes price movement in a market- the ever evolving tug of war between patient buyer and patient seller, and the ever evolving anxiety each side feels when they cant get their orders filled.

Therefore my one and only claim is that this can all be put together to identify high probabaility times to act in the market according to (1) Where big orders are or are not located in the first place (2) The level of pateince and anxiety that is being displayed in the market at any given moment in time.

And I happen to use volume to determine these relationship at all times.

The charts I posted earlier during the day are a pefect example of what happens over and over again in the market.

We saw patient sellers dry up in an area (Volume is a way to tell you this). As I have stated often, when this happens, the pateint sellers are now way above, (which should make sense because they have fully acted at a given price level).

Finally price will go to seek these patient sellers as long as they remain patient (my very first post that was wasn't received too well)

In this case, we had a high probability clue that price would move up seek the "new" patient sellers...and this resulted in a 10-point move higher before the patient sellers finally emerged (again determned by volume) as noted in the attached chart.

Again, I have simply tried to present my interpretation of how to trade in a market according to what I feel is the logical way price moves up and down, over and over again.
 

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Wow..it has gotten awfully quiet around here..I think that once people realized that you are a vendor then the train of thought goes as follows:

If your system is as good as you say it is, you wouldn't be selling it for $495..in fact, you wouldn't be selling it all. You would keep your "edge" to yourself, and setup a Hedgefund and trade other people's money to riches.

One last question: Are you able to re-produce the performance results that you tout on your website with your real cash account, and would you be willing to provide statements or a statement from your accountant verifying your results.....like Chick Goslin of intelligentfuturestrading.com does?

....or even post daily statement in the Trader P/L thread.


P.S.
I think I already know what your response will be but I will keep an open mind.
 
07-17-2008- Pre-Open comments- 8:15 am- Price =1252.00

We need to look at today’s likely gap up in the context of the bigger picture. We have been in a macro down trend for almost a month and a half now. The two ways this macro down trend can even begin to change are if (1) new swing highs develop (2) Breakout above consolidations form.

We’ve seen two breakouts from consolidations (early June and July) that took price right to the macro trend line that eventually broke down and failed.

Now we have a new swing high back to the trend line area.
Trend line often align with key pivot or bracket points, and in this case it s easy to see where these points are in the market.

We closed yesterday near the top of a bracket (see chart) The gap up today is the true bracket high in line with the big Picture down trend line. The lower bracket will have to hold if this is truly the start of a new macro up trend.

So we start out today at a key inflection point in the much bigger picture, and we will monitor all developments very closely.


Options at the open:

1.Trading trend starts up and the much bigger picture will likely have a strong influence on how price movement develops today
 

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Quote from EMC2Trader:

07-17-2008- Pre-Open comments- 8:15 am- Price =1252.00
1.Trading trend starts up and the much bigger picture will likely have a strong influence on how price movement develops today
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But is'nt the much bigger picture derived from price movement.

How can you even have a picture big or small if you don't have price movement.

Perhaps I am going quietly mad from reading your thread.

regards
f9
 
Quote from Billybob543:

Wow..it has gotten awfully quiet around here..I think that once people realized that you are a vendor then the train of thought goes as follows:

If your system is as good as you say it is, you wouldn't be selling it for $495..in fact, you wouldn't be selling it all. You would keep your "edge" to yourself, and setup a Hedgefund and trade other people's money to riches.

One last question: Are you able to re-produce the performance results that you tout on your website with your real cash account, and would you be willing to provide statements or a statement from your accountant verifying your results.....like Chick Goslin of intelligentfuturestrading.com does?

....or even post daily statement in the Trader P/L thread.


P.S.
I think I already know what your response will be but I will keep an open mind.
More...


Billy,

First, I cant read everyones mind to know what they may or may not be thinking about who I am or what I am. Im sure those are your feelings and you have every right to feel that way without knowing anything me, or discussing anything with me

I have read many of your posts on here, and I can see you do a very good job of highlighting many things out int the trading world that have the potential to be of little value.

For instance, I would agree that if you are going to pay $500 a month for a trading service, there needs to be some sort of verifiable track record of exactly what is going on and how this will likley end up a being a good investment for you.

It sounds like we are both in the same postion that we have in the past bought or tried things that didnt live up to expectations.

Therefore, I am right with you, that many many things out there are in many cases hype than anyhthing else, and at the very least dont offer a clear plan from A-Z even if they provide some good information.

If you have an open mind as you say, then either I am just another one of those providers (you have every right to be skeptical), or just perhaps, maybe, I might be one of the very few legitimate people out there offering something extremely valuable for anyone interested (remember the open mind)

Without knowing me, or my position in life, I will simply say Im not interested in opening up a hedge fund.

Here's what I will say.... I show a track record of every single trade the approach I use makes...Show me anyone else who discloses that in the same manner I do.

Next, Ive discussed a little bit about my overall philosphoy of the markets here, and therefore the basis for the approach. You can decide if it makes any sense or not, or has any value or not

Next, this is a relatively new, and I have only received very postive feedback from those who have started using it, and making it work for them. That tells me something about its value.

Next, I go above and beyond discussing exactly what this approach is and isnt for anyone who contacts me to make sure it fits with their trading style and goals.

And finally, for anyone who just cant make this approach work after a reaosnable effort (paper trade or otherwise) after they receive it, I will will return their money because I dont want anyone to feel like they have wasted their money as I know can be the case with so many things out there.

If you truly have an open mind as you say, then consider just perhaps, that I may be one of the very few honest, legitimate, people out there trying to provide something of value for anyone who is interested.

If you want to rermain skeptical for the reasons you have outlined, that is very much your right as well.
 
Quote from EMC2Trader:

Billy,

First, I cant read everyones mind to know what they may or may not be thinking about who I am or what I am. Im sure those are your feelings and you have every right to feel that way without knowing anything me, or discussing anything with me

I have read many of your posts on here, and I can see you do a very good job of highlighting many things out int the trading world that have the potential to be of little value.

For instance, I would agree that if you are going to pay $500 a month for a trading service, there needs to be some sort of verifiable track record of exactly what is going on and how this will likley end up a being a good investment for you.

It sounds like we are both in the same postion that we have in the past bought or tried things that didnt live up to expectations.

Therefore, I am right with you, that many many things out there are in many cases hype than anyhthing else, and at the very least dont offer a clear plan from A-Z even if they provide some good information.

If you have an open mind as you say, then either I am just another one of those providers (you have every right to be skeptical), or just perhaps, maybe, I might be one of the very few legitimate people out there offering something extremely valuable for anyone interested (remember the open mind)

Without knowing me, or my position in life, I will simply say Im not interested in opening up a hedge fund.

Here's what I will say.... I show a track record of every single trade the approach I use makes...Show me anyone else who discloses that in the same manner I do.

Next, Ive discussed a little bit about my overall philosphoy of the markets here, and therefore the basis for the approach. You can decide if it makes any sense or not, or has any value or not

Next, this is a relatively new, and I have only received very postive feedback from those who have started using it, and making it work for them. That tells me something about its value.

Next, I go above and beyond discussing exactly what this approach is and isnt for anyone who contacts me to make sure it fits with their trading style and goals.

And finally, for anyone who just cant make this approach work after a reaosnable effort (paper trade or otherwise) after they receive it, I will will return their money because I dont want anyone to feel like they have wasted their money as I know can be the case with so many things out there.

If you truly have an open mind as you say, then consider just perhaps, that I may be one of the very few honest, legitimate, people out there trying to provide something of value for anyone who is interested.

If you want to rermain skeptical for the reasons you have outlined, that is very much your right as well.
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Billy,

Sorry, I didnt respond to your point about real trades and account statements, etc. which I suspect, in your case, is the only thing that will convince you that something works, even though there is a flexibily how anyone can trade an approach (ie, all in/all out vs scaling with multiple contracts which I go into great detail describing in the material).

But I do trade this way on my own, and I have posted a statement just as you suggest on the website. so again I dont have any problem with your skepticism at all, because I actually have the same skepticism you do, as hard as that may be for you to believe.

So we actually think the same, and I have tried to go above and beyond in many ways to show what I have just may be different from other things out there.
 
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