Fseitun,
First, thx for the kind words. I truly dont have a problem people judging me when they dont know me- the beneift of the doubt, like you are showing would be nice if someone is at least trying to seem sincere, and then I actually respect everyone doing their own due dligence beyond that.
But to the more important point.. You have it exactly right!!!!
Let me explain... Your scenarios at a market high are right on, and variety of thngs can be happening, so the key isnt to at that moment have a grasp on what is happening...It is what follows after that sets up the high probabaility situation!!
!. So lets say the market moves to new highs in situation 1, anxious buyers acting frantic, patient sell orders way above (because we just established highs werent made with patient sellers) Therefore on the next pullback, if the buyers cant regain patience they will in high probabaility remain anxious as price heads up again to where the pateint sellers are winning the tug of war and waiting.....Great high probabaility buy in this situation
2. Most of volume at a high is made of patient sellers....therefore the buyers have decided to remain more pateint possibly, we dont know yet.....so on the next pullback, we see if the pateint buyers take control or not..If they do, then we know your scenario was correct, the top was mostly pateint sellers and the market is now in balance for the time being
3. Patient sellers selling to anxious buyers.... Well this becomes an extension of scenario number one, where price makes a swing to new highs, where the buyers still remain anxious, but now are meeting up with the pateint sellers.
First with my trading, you will aleady be long from way below and looking to take profits here, but from what will happen next, a new scenario unfolds,,,,,,,,,
If the buyers remain anxious, price will continue to test ths new high area.......But when we see volume dry up the next time, we have a good idea that the pateint sellers in the area are now drying up, and as you say are located way above this area now............
So, this becomes key to anticipating what could happen next,.,,,You will either have to have a very big move up or down. because the patient sellers are way above, and the pateint buyers are way below....and again, it is always who wins this tug or war is where price goes...If price drops from here on heavy volume, it is likley that the patient sellers way above, now turn anxious, and the patient buyers with big volume below gain control and remain patient, and the cycle starts all over again the new direction.
So I hope you can see it is not knowing exactly what is going on at each extreme, because as you say there are a variety of scenarios, but it is the developments that follow that set up the high probabaility scenarios to jump upon.