Day trading difficulties

[PABuster]

Quote from NoDoji:



When the distribution of buyers and sellers is random in your chosen time frame, the price footprint is random (back to back dojis and up/down price bars in a range around a flat 20-period moving average).

On a smaller time frame, these random price bars form small tradable micro-trends. You can trade them or wait for non-random action, designated by buyers overwhelming willing sellers or sellers overwhelming willing buyers. This is known as a trend. When this appears, the trend exists.

Although I generally trade trends that actually exist, I'm quite happy to trade the appearance of trends even if none exist.

"If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family anatidae on our hands." - Douglas Adams

Such is the trend. Some days are clear to read and other days its not in the intraday chart. 20 EMA is quite useful on trendy days. By the time one figures out Intraday trend has changed or it starts to chop, you already have taken a stop or two

 

[oilfxpro]

Quote from PABuster:

Such is the trend. Some days are clear to read and other days its not in the intraday chart. 20 EMA is quite useful on trendy days. By the time one figures out Intraday trend has changed or it starts to chop, you already have taken a stop or two

Using trend lines on 15 min and longer time frames will reduce the number of random trades,Looking at other pairs will also help, if buying euro/yen , odds are better if usd yen is rising and eurousd is also rising.Trading in the direction of longer time frame trend lines can improve the trading.

Using some calculated averaging down , with a stop loss helps.

Knowing the fundamentals driving the prices also eliminates random trends.Knowledge of the actions of other participants also helps , e.g absence of sellers ahead of interest rate announcements. or other important news.

Above all keep your risk low with stops and rewards high with large targets.Trade only the high probability trades in tune with the market.

Trading several methods and several currency pairs and instruments , gives greater options and a choice of high probability set ups.Looking at inter markets also helps, when trading oil keep on eye on commodities and euro/usd or dollar index.

 

[oilfxpro]

Anybody want to experiment the following?

Trade 100 trades a day in the direction of the price.

target 12 pips , stop 8 pips.

 

[nakachalet]

Quote from oilfxpro:

Anybody want to experiment the following?

Trade 100 trades a day in the direction of the price.

target 12 pips , stop 8 pips.

And friend....

what is the basis or rationale or irrationality of your assumption on the aforementioned pls?

try to be specific in your delineation which might benefit several others who might be interested in doing randomization stuff.

out of the 100 random trials going with the trend between...... and ......;
the postulated outcomes should be..... wins and ..... losses, by my hypothesis.

or if you prefer, you could use the null hypothesis too, alright?

can hardly wait.... lol

 

[oilfxpro]

Quote from nakachalet:

And friend....

what is the basis or rationale or irrationality of your assumption on the aforementioned pls?

try to be specific in your delineation which might benefit several others who might be interested in doing randomization stuff.

out of the 100 random trials going with the trend between...... and ......;
the postulated outcomes should be..... wins and ..... losses, by my hypothesis.

or if you prefer, you could use the null hypothesis too, alright?

can hardly wait.... lol

According to my assumptions , if entry is timed correctly, trending only when there is confirmed s/r and confirmed trends (two confirmations there is a trend) , a manual trader using powerful mind and imagination should get about 60 % win rate , using 8/12 stop target.On a daily basis he should hit 60*12 profits =720 less 40*8 losses =320 , net result should be 400 pips daily.If he uses 12 pip stop and achieves a 60 % hit rate and target of 12, it will leave him with 240 pips daily.Try it on demo/sim.

No automated back tests would be as good as manual forward tests.Minimum one week's result required.

 

[nakachalet]

Quote from oilfxpro:

According to my assumptions , if entry is timed correctly, trending only when there is confirmed s/r and confirmed trends (two confirmations there is a trend) , a manual trader using powerful mind and imagination should get about 60 % win rate , using 8/12 stop target.On a daily basis he should hit 60*12 profits =720 less 40*8 losses =320 , net result should be 400 pips daily.If he uses 12 pip stop and achieves a 60 % hit rate and target of 12, it will leave him with 240 pips daily.Try it on demo/sim.

No automated back tests would be as good as manual forward tests.Minimum one week's result required.

interesting indeed.

ok, now would you plse show us your one week data on this trial?

and if it is interesting enogh and profitable enough, i won't mind assign someone in the office to duplicate your trade on this, alright?

thx for explaining your postulation.

However, one week is neither a successful trader makes though. on my own, i would not dare to surmize any study less than 6 mos. but that is me.... lol

 

[oilfxpro]

Quote from nakachalet:

interesting indeed.

ok, now would you plse show us your one week data on this trial?

and if it is interesting enogh and profitable enough, i won't mind assign someone in the office to duplicate your trade on this, alright?

thx for explaining your postulation.

I have done and mixed it with a load of other trades.Just dig them out from the multi system trades on attached.I can repeat this every day.I have no problem making $10 k in a week on a $50k account , only the discipline lets me down.

I need a few rabbi to oversee my discipline .I tend to get carried out with my betting.

 

[oilfxpro]

Quote from oilfxpro:

Anybody want to experiment the following?

Trade 100 trades a day in the direction of the price.

target 12 pips , stop 8 pips.

I believe this type of system trading with tight stops and fixed lot sizes may drastically reduce the psychological and other issues like over trading,greed , fear , discipline etc.Trader will always be on the lookout for the next trade , and there will be enough trades during the day , if a trade or set of trades are not going well.The mindset of this type of trader will be pre set without all the other problems.

If the trend is random or it fails or ends , it does not matter , just move on to the next trade.There are plenty more trades.

If the day is narrow and ranging , there should be enough profits with a contrarian/ support and resistance method.

What other issues can it eliminate?

 

[bstay]

One option might be to use Heikin Ashi bars to read trends instead of regular candlestick bars. There are many sites and forums discussing such techniques.

Not just colour change when trend change, that's the simplistic view of Heikin Ashi usage. Each bar is also calculated and reconstructed differently so that as long as e.g. an uptrend trend is prevailing, there are no bottoming wicks only smooth green long bars (see bottom set of 9 charts),

Regular candlesticks chart,

Heikin Ashi chart,

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from oilfxpro:

Anybody want to experiment the following?

Trade 100 trades a day in the direction of the price.

target 12 pips , stop 8 pips.

If this is for fx, could you translate into 6E (EUR) terms please?

In your example you said 60*12 profits (720) and 40*8 losses (240) . On Friday which was a clear trend day after the 2 complete loop/reversals off NFP, I fail to see 60 * 12-pip with-trend trades and nowhere near your minimum 240 pip daily target. More like 170 max, and that's if you held for all the green bars low to high, which would be nearly impossible.

I'm not questioning the validity of your method, just trying to see where you get that many trades in one day and how you'd translate your numbers to futures.