Thank you so much for your reply. I'm curious, how do you reduce number of false breakouts. In this case is it because of the big moves in currency ytd for JPY?
Isn't it dangerous to trade reversals on big trend days. Is it because equities tend to mean revert more? What are good signals for reversals / mean reversion?
how to reduce false breakouts? I look at how messy / jerky its movement is. if movement is very messy / jerky, I will avoid trading that instrument. eg today Asian index futures movement was very jerky / messy. Judging its movement is an art, not science.
but then at times, I might miss the signal and that futures might move substantially.
reversal. big trend days, price might reverse. small trend days price might also reverse.
There are reversal signal everywhere from index futures to commodity futures, bond futures , currency futures....
when there is reversal signal, there is absolutely no way to predict who far the price will go.
good example is russell 2000, yesterday 932pm GMT+8 where price moved alot.
also no way to predict whether reversal signal is going to be good or bad.
my frame of mind is : whenever there is continuation or reversal signal, take it first without hestitation, without 2nd thoughts, and take it blindly.
exception : when movement is very messy / jerky. as mentioned, this is an art, not science. sometimes I got it right and avoided losses, sometimes wrong and missed a very good signal.
bottom line - no perfect answer.