David Tice predicts S&P down 40% in 12 months

[a529612]

Is it 40% or 50% decline in S&P?


David Tice, who runs the $789 million Prudent Bear Fund in Dallas, is more pessimistic. He owns S&P 500 put options because stocks could ``easily'' decline by more than 50 percent in the next 12 months to 24 months.

Tice says the latest rebound only delays an inevitable crash, comparing it to when ``somebody falls out of a 95-story building.''

``They haven't hit the ground yet,'' he said, ``But they're getting closer and closer.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aouTzYS5mCCY&refer=home

 

[dtan1e]

Quote from a529612:

somebody falls out of a 95-story building.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aouTzYS5mCCY&refer=home [/B]

very imaginative, obvious u can't expect somebody that runs a bear fund to predict a rise

 

[a529612]

Is that "somebody" going to be himself?

 

[man]

1. the fund sucks.
2. banks have not been that nervous about their
balance sheets since august '98.
3. their combined losses account for probably around
15-20bn, which ...
4. ... will ripple through their credit books and hurt
smaller companies.
5. yet stocks are near alltime highs while ...
6. ... nonFinancial newspapers write about the credit
crisis every day.

this is a weird situation.

 

[stock_trad3r]

The dow won't fall 4% for a long time..40% is an impossibility unless there is a nuclear war, impending meterorite impact, gamma ray burst, pandemic, or some other catastrophe.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from man:

1. the fund sucks.
2. banks have not been that nervous about their
balance sheets since august '98.
3. their combined losses account for probably around
15-20bn, which ...
4. ... will ripple through their credit books and hurt
smaller companies.
5. yet stocks are near alltime highs while ...
6. ... nonFinancial newspapers write about the credit
crisis every day.
this is a weird situation.

You forgot to add:
7. the US and the major economic powers are floating in a sea of cash right now.

Follow the money. That's what the equity markets do...
Now if Big Ben takes away the punch bowl, that should end this party.

 

[Biog]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

The dow won't fall 4% for a long time..40% is an impossibility unless there is a nuclear war, impending meterorite impact, gamma ray burst, pandemic, or some other catastrophe.

Spot on jerkoff!

 

[Biog]

Quote from atticus:

40%, he's out of his mind. Not unless we see mushroom clouds on American soil. 930 SPX?

Where did the mushroom cloud hit?

 

[Cariocas]

20%-30% markdown is considered a correction..multiply 2x in the case of a crisis. Expect no less than 60% discount from all-time highs.

 

[gnome]

Quote from Cariocas:

20%-30% markdown is considered a correction..multiply 2x in the case of a crisis. Expect no less than 60% discount from all-time highs.

The Tech Wreck was down 78% from the highs... the Depression was down 90%.... Emerging markets routinely give up 90% under conditions like this...