Kass has a dislocated shoulder from patting himself on the back for the entire late summer dip. I thought he had good reasoning, but every piece he wrote became so self-congratulatory and preening that I wrote him off as a "bizzaro-Cramer." And I wonder how Kass did after all that, now that the major indices are back to the "it never even happened" mode? I hope that he remembered to cover his shorts :eek:
David Tice predicts S&P down 40% in 12 months
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Kass has a dislocated shoulder from patting himself on the back for the entire late summer dip. I thought he had good reasoning, but every piece he wrote became so self-congratulatory and preening that I wrote him off as a "bizzaro-Cramer." And I wonder how Kass did after all that, now that the major indices are back to the "it never even happened" mode? I hope that he remembered to cover his shorts :eek:
Quote from dhpar:
he is idiot. his prudent bear fund is short all the time and sometimes in names which are simply suicidal. he calls for big sell off for years now - just increasing the percentage plunge as the time goes on (probably to bring him breakeven; lol).
it was interesting to see his face today after such a long time - he looked pretty bad
Agreed, he is extreme in his views. Could it happen sure. Schiff on CNBC says the same stuff and he calls are about as accurate as anyone else's some good some bad. I have a buddy who is a Perma Bear and missed an opportunity to buy a house lease back in So Cal on a 3% discount. He wishes he would have done it . It was 24 months before the market started to deflate. Could have made big money.
Myself I have a little more hope for the USD. Articles I read on bloomberg say there is a chance by year end the ECB and Canadian central bank may have to lower in response to lost business from the US.
On a side note, does anyone recall which central bank started slashing rates first? I want to say us, the US?
I admire those willing to go against the grain, and who do their own thinking; but Kass's analyses are rather underwhelming.
Tice has been known to do good work. I would guess that his Prudent Bear fund would be a good hedge against a strongly bullish portfolio, as the fund loses less than one would expect in a bull market.
That said, I admire neither permabulls nor permabears, as I cannot stand ideological rigidity. Give me a pragmatic, go with the flow trader anyday.
Tice's site is good. I enjoy reading it. He should stick to that....and his Dollar Doom thesis ....but he should lay off the stock market forecasts. He's not very good at it.
I say Dow back to 12,900 to 13,300 by year end plus or minus a month... but definitely not down anywhere near 40% by Q3 2008. That would be one and a half times the size of the 2000 bubble burst... Although I would love to see that short market and get that kind of value on the long side after we hit the bottom. I say bring it on, but nothing even close to that will happen... He's just an idiot.
It's really silly to use just a nominal for any future prediction...one needs to based it on fundamental's ratios. It's also silly time burst of bubble .But let's see :
Historical Div Yield 5 , now 2 --> DOW fair value at 6k
Price to Book 1.6 , now 3 --> DOW fair value at 6k
Price to Sales 0.6 , now 1.60 -->DOW fair value at 6k
but wait...this time it's different , lol
Historical Div Yield 5 , now 2 --> DOW fair value at 6k
Price to Book 1.6 , now 3 --> DOW fair value at 6k
Price to Sales 0.6 , now 1.60 -->DOW fair value at 6k
but wait...this time it's different , lol
Another flooz
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