Cycle Theory

Oh my goodness! USDCAD just reached levels only 20 pips away from where I had set my take-profit target. I could have been hundreds of dollars in the black right now. But it doesn't matter as far as I'm concerned. The pair was showing few signs of actually heading south, and in fact, looked like it might ultimately decide to continue heading north, especially with the universal orbit having turned bullish. So from my perspective, I still made the right decision.

EURJPY just reached the top of its cycle. What's more, the universal orbit is now bearish. So if the pair forms a double top in this neighborhood (it was up around 119.994 on Friday) and if the ceiling of the Donchian channel flattens out above price action, it will be a prime candidate for shorting as soon as the prescriptive moving averages give the go ahead (i.e., hook south).

NZDJPY never pulled back for me to enter a long position. At 68.44, it's already reached what would have been my take-profit target!:mad:

Hmmm...its universal orbit is bearish and the rate is presently only 20 pips away from the top of its cycle, so I should probably be thinking about shorting the asset now.
 
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Tuesday / October 15, 2019 / 8:23 a.m. PST

I was going to short GBPUSD but everything is happening so fast it already hit my take profit target while I was trying to get my bearings. I am short UZDUSD from 0.6290 though... I hope it works out.

Theoretically, AUDJPY looks like an almost ideal play. The global orbit is bearish, the pair appears to be bouncing off the top of its cycle, an its prescriptive moving averages are hooking south. I'm therefore short the asset from 73.56.

UPDATE: I cashed out of NZDUSD early to pick up a few quick bucks and be done with it. It turned out to be only $94, so that probably wasn't very smart, but at least it recouped the -$49.89 I lost on USDCAD earlier. I plan to be more patient with my remaining positions however.

On second thought, because the intraday trends have now reversed, even though the universal orbits might encourage me to remain in these positions, I'm going to exit them all early, before they reverse on me if possible, and hopefully end the day's activity with a net $1000 gain and be finished with it.
 
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I'm out of all my positions, but I still need to make another $125 to clear $1000 for the day. USDCAD is now near the floor of its cycle, and as I mentioned earlier, its universal orbit is now bullish, so I'm apt to enter a long position if and when the medium blue and indigo moving averages both turn north, and hope that the pair follows through.
 
Today's Performance Results: Tuesday / October 15, 2019

I won't need to wait or rely on USDCAD in that I already got what I needed from EURJPY...

ScreenHunter_6976 Oct. 15 09.33.jpg
 
expiated said:
On second thought, because the intraday trends have now reversed, even though the universal orbits might encourage me to remain in these positions, I'm going to exit them all early, before they reverse on me if possible, and hopefully end the day's activity with a net $1000 gain and be finished with it.
More...
This turned out to be a wise move. For future reference, do not rely on the universal orbit until and unless it is when the intraday trend is coming BACK into alignment with it!!!
 
NZDJPY was at the top of its cycle about four hours ago at 68.78, which would have been a tremendous time to short the pair. Unfortunately, I was not at my computer at the time. The same was true of NZDUSD at 0.6319.
 
Wednesday / October 16, 2019 / 6:15 a.m. PST

So far I've only made one serious trade this morning (AUDUSD).

ScreenHunter_6980 Oct. 16 06.15.jpg


I don't really like anything I see with the single exception of USDCHF. The pair is at the bottom of its cycle and the universal orbit is bullish, but I won't enter a long position until my trend lines are aligned which does not look likely to happen anytime soon. Moreover, if price suddenly spikes above the moving averages it will throw everything out of wack and I will have to abandon the plan, so for now, it's simply a matter of being patient and waiting to see what happens.

What makes me even more hesitant about making any other trades today, at least with how the markets look at this time, is the fact that the European Summit in Brussels is supposed to be going on all day long, and I guess the BOE's Carney is supposedly taking part in a panel discussion at the IMF right now.
 
Wednesday / October 16, 2019 / 6:45 a.m. PST

I am now long USDCHF from 0.9968 based on three factors:
  1. Though the trend lines are not yet aligned on my 15-minute chart, the moving averages on my one-minute chart are juxtaposed such that they give me permission to enter a long position right now if I wish to act aggressively.
  2. I'm willing to trade aggressively in this case because my stop loss is only 10 pips. If it were 30 pips or 35 pips, I would definitely wait on the 15-minute chart in that making up such a loss would not be as easy as making up a loss of 10 pips, which can often be accomplished relatively quickly.
  3. The structure of this trade is such that, with a 10-pip stop loss, the reward-to-risk ratio will be about 3:1 (though there is a very good chance I will have to wait quite a few hours for my take-profit target to be hit, possibly even more than a day).
 
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