CV not even remotely close to being priced in

[KCalhoun]

Excess deaths, are Deaths the Lockdown are causing not the Virus, every death is being tested for Covid, Lockdown has a cost, can't lock 325Mil people in there houses and scare them to death without expecting extra deaths.

Really?! Faulty logic, bro. Read up on excess deaths and causes.... coronavirus causes deaths via comorbidities etc

 

[Turveyd]

The lockdown worked both ways. Traffic fatalities went way down, for example.

Ok, if you ignore the antibody tests and assume that every single NYC resident was infected – which is overoptimistic and unlikely, but I'll play along with you – that gives us a fatality rate of 0.276% (as of today 23,181 deaths in a population of 8,398,748). Not the 0.166% you cited.

Some would of died and testing Covid positive, even though Covid wasn't there actual cause of death maybe no symptoms even, so that also works both ways. Yes Lockdowns aren't all great, the kill people, UK Heart Attack and Stroke sufferers, weren't ringing 999 cause too scared to catch the Covid, that's why the press conferences where, if your ill you need to ring 999 and get treated, that's a stupid level of fear to just stay home and die

No sign of a 2nd Spike yet, I don't expect 1, still creeping up slowly, we'll have to see who's right, but I did state 2months back NYC wouldn't have and Florida and others would, basic logic.

Until somewhere has a 2nd Wave, I'm assume it's pretty much all over UK included and no where near a big a deal as the media is trying to scare you it is

2nd Spikes 6-12months time, possible but lesser and much less deaths if immunity wears off, then it'll be a yearly Flu like event, we'll see if that happens or not in time.

 

[Turveyd]

Really?! Faulty logic, bro. Read up on excess deaths and causes.... coronavirus causes deaths via comorbidities etc

No No No, seen zero evidence of this, Media and lies to hide the lockdown damage.

UK literally, people having Strokes and Heart attacks, not at all Covid related, too scared to ring 999 ( 911 ) and shout help, as they didn't want to go to hospital and risk catching the Covid, seriously, it dropped off after about 4 weeks of Government saying, you must go in and also the Fear level dropping to.

Suicides up, Murdering your wife up, murdering your husband up, murdering your kids up.

Divorce solicitors are going to make a killing


* Dumped my NHS girlie I was seeing, too feckin nuts so no NHS updates

 

[Turveyd]

News earlier front room walking past it said " We think the Lockdowns are causing more damage than the virus " Possibly Brazil as they where mainly on about that, have a search around see if you can find it.

SLEEP! Laters!! Stop being Scared and scaring others, it's not a good way to live!!

 

[trading_jean]

You just want FEAR and seem incapable of Basic logic, D08 couldn't answer a simple logic question and proved his opinion is irrelevant just like yours.

Same Lazy Element 90% agrees with me, but I see your liking his posts LOL don't understand what he's writing do you LOL

Please just accept the fact that I am not smart enough for your logic Turveyd.

You are right and I do have to admit I completely didn't understand Same Lazy Element 90% agrees with you. Even after re-reading his post carefully several times and comparing it to your posts I STILL don't see it.

 

[Turveyd]

Please just accept the fact that I am not smart enough for your logic Turveyd.

You are right and I do have to admit I completely didn't understand Same Lazy Element 90% agrees with you. Even after re-reading his post carefully several times and comparing it to your posts I STILL don't see it.

Check other thread 1 of his posts, he's higher on the numbers as just going off antibody tests.

50? 15 states posted 2 days ago.

 

[Turveyd]

Really?! Faulty logic, bro. Read up on excess deaths and causes.... coronavirus causes deaths via comorbidities etc

Forgot to add if is comorbidities they'd still test positive at the coronas office and already be in the covid deaths.

Proof media over react to scare you.

4 months ago, someone tested positive then negative then positive again, 1 person, just 1 bad test, they ran it for weeks you can keep getting it, since then, zero cases of repeat infection.

If you switch the tv / media off covid will f!y by and most of you, won't even be aware its even happening.

 

[Cuddles]

today:

 

[Turveyd]

today:
View attachment 232688

Zoom into usa the higher the deaths per million the lower the deaths all get to about the same, just sooner without lockdowns.

 

[ballsofgold]

As days turn into weeks... and into months... and soon into years... I believe that the market is not even remotely close to properly pricing in the CV fallout:

1. In the USA, wave I is still going on; wave II will hit in the fall and winter of this year.

II. Swine flu and others are being found. When cold weather hits, we're all going back to lockdown.

III. The trillions pumped into the economy will weaken the dollar, cause inflation, deflation, or stagnation (who knows).

IV. Retail real estate is changing; an exodus from the cities is occurring, and will continue. Who wants to be locked in a small apartment for the winter?

V. Corporate real estate landscape is dramatically changing, as companies save money with wfh policies.

VI. Businesses are closing, as new laws come into effect limiting their businesses.

VII. Education is changing. Many students will never see a classroom again. Universities will see dramatic revenue losses.

a. 1.5T in student loans will not be repaid.

VIII. Municipalities are threatened with bankruptcy, as the revenue losses hit tax revenue

IX. Taxes will rise; someone has to pay for all this.

X. The transportation industry is dramatically affected. Ridership on NJ Transit, Long Island RR, etc. is down 90%. Airlines are essentially grounded.

XI. ...this, in turn, affects oil consumption rates. Fuel industries are affected.

XII. Especially in this litiginous society, everything has to change. OSHA will get involved. What if I go to my office, and catch Corona? Can I sue my employer? What if I catch it riding on American Airlines? Are they liable? The Bus system? Anywhere that people come into contact.

XIII. Politicians and medical advisors will not assume any risk. They will choose the safest route: LOCKDOWN.

XIV. The government really put their heel down on the people here... and there is a fear of it happening again. What's next, iron grates on our front doors? We all have to wear ankle bracelets to monitor our movement?

We will not see a return to the old way of life until may 2030.. if ever... if we make it that far... if if if. We are in for years, perhaps a decade, of societal change. This is just the beginning.

I only hope that this does not lead to military conflict.

really? this was so january

what is the market supposed to price in, fair value investing is dead......

throw all the fundamental value models out the window, that is why lots of investors are in MMs now

the market as a place for true price discovery is dead

why even debate about manipulated markets?