CV not even remotely close to being priced in

[trading_jean]

Turveyd,

You have been downplaying this virus from the beginning. First it was just a flu, now you keep saying only 85+ and ill people die. That is not true. Of course they are much more likely to die, but it can hit young and middle-aged people as well.

One important issue you seem to keep forgetting though I already mentioned it to you a couple of times is the fact that the health system cannot cope with even only 0,1% of the population needing medical aid at the same time. And without measures many more will need exactly that.

If the hospitals are full it has 2 consequences:
1) Death rates will go up, many covid patients that survive today will not make it.
2) If you happen to be in a car crash as a perfectly healthy 18 yo you will die as well.

Whether we should care enough about the 80 year-olds to hurt the economy is one ethical discussion. Whether a country wants to accept not having a functional health system for a couple of months is another.

 

[Turveyd]

Turveyd,

You have been downplaying this virus from the beginning. First it was just a flu, now you keep saying only 85+ and ill people die. That is not true. Of course they are much more likely to die, but it can hit young and middle-aged people as well.

One important issue you seem to keep forgetting though I already mentioned it to you a couple of times is the fact that the health system cannot cope with even only 0,1% of the population needing medical aid at the same time. And without measures many more will need exactly that.

If the hospitals are full it has 2 consequences:
1) Death rates will go up, many covid patients that survive today will not make it.
2) If you happen to be in a car crash as a perfectly healthy 18 yo you will die as well.

Whether we should care enough about the 80 year-olds to hurt the economy is one ethical discussion. Whether a country wants to accept not having a functional health system for a couple of months is another.

Trading_Jean,

And you've been over reacting for ages.

Very few of infected need hospital care @2%, UK hospitals hit 25% and where already dropping before the Lockdowns would of kicked in, none of the 16,000 ICU beds used, Sweden also hasn't suffered, made an army hospital doesn't seem to of used it.

So that's not as big an issue unless your in some 3rd world country as you might think.

When you start damaging children for life to maybe save a few old people that have lived and won't live much longer then I say it's not worth it, Kids over Oldies every time.

That and all lockdowns are doing are delaying it, bought the people that will be killed in Florida about 3months, that's a lot of destruction for 3month of extra onto your life, and the last 3months generally not that fun.

Old people can Shield until it's over, the faster those at risk get it and get it over with the better chance they've got of not catching it and therefore the young <60 putting themselves at very slight risk will actually save old peoples lives.

 

[trading_jean]

Not sure where you got those numbers, but the actual numbers with regards to needing medical care are:

25% of reported cases need hospitalisation.
2,5% of reported cases need intensive care.

I don't know what the exact situation is for the UK, but in many EU countries they only JUST managed to scale up hospital beds/IC units. Without the lockdowns there is no doubt they would have run out of beds. In New York hospitals had to put beds in the hallways as well.

Let's say we stop 'delaying' the virus and allow everyone to attract it.
Let's also assume only 100 million of the US population will get it (<30%)

That means 25 million people will need hospitalisation and 2,5 million will need intensive care.
There are less than 100k IC beds in the US. How am I over-reacting for thinking this might be a problem? Even if you half the numbers to account for the fact that probably there are more cases without symptoms that don't get reported it doesn't change much, does it?

 

[d08]

Not sure where you got those numbers, but the actual numbers with regards to needing medical care are:

25% of reported cases need hospitalisation.
2,5% of reported cases need intensive care.

Don't bother with @Turveyd, he makes numbers up on the spot.

It was mayhem in many hospitals from what I hear. Many nurses quit because the situation was so dire, dead bodies being shipped out in bulk.

According to him, it's not so bad. That's why NYC was burying the dead on an island because they ran out of space in cemeteries.

Denial is powerful.

 

[Turveyd]

Not sure where you got those numbers, but the actual numbers with regards to needing medical care are:

25% of reported cases need hospitalisation.
2,5% of reported cases need intensive care.

I don't know what the exact situation is for the UK, but in many EU countries they only JUST managed to scale up hospital beds/IC units. Without the lockdowns there is no doubt they would have run out of beds. In New York hospitals had to put beds in the hallways as well.

Let's say we stop 'delaying' the virus and allow everyone to attract it.
Let's also assume only 100 million of the US population will get it (<30%)

That means 25 million people will need hospitalisation and 2,5 million will need intensive care.
There are less than 100k IC beds in the US. How am I over-reacting for thinking this might be a problem? Even if you half the numbers to account for the fact that probably there are more cases without symptoms that don't get reported it doesn't change much, does it?

But how many cases don't get reported, I know 30+ who've had it, not 1 got reported, I'd bet 90% ( 98% but 90 easier number ) ( including the 50% that have no sympoms don't get reported )

So divide your numbers by 10, 2.5% need hospital and 0.25% need ICU and approx 0.1%-0.2% die. US overall on 0.04%, NYC on 0.15%, UK on 0.07%.

UK for the first time doesn't have beds in Corridors with Corridor Nurses ( on there badges SAD ), hit 25% and started dropping, hospitals where like Ghost towns for 6weeks no 1 else wanting to go near there, nurses I know, sat around in near empty wards bored, Zero of the 16K ICU beds used.

NYC is pretty much over, no sign of 2nd wave, it's on 0.165% area.

Not saying can't do mild social distancing to slow spread, not saying old and unwell they don't work anyway can't lockdown themselves till it's over.

 

[Overnight]

Don't bother with @Turveyd, he makes numbers up on the spot.

It was mayhem in many hospitals from what I hear. Many nurses quit because the situation was so dire, dead bodies being shipped out in bulk.

According to him, it's not so bad. That's why NYC was burying the dead on an island because they ran out of space in cemeteries.

Denial is powerful.

You mean Hart Island?

 

[Turveyd]

Don't bother with @Turveyd, he makes numbers up on the spot.

It was mayhem in many hospitals from what I hear. Many nurses quit because the situation was so dire, dead bodies being shipped out in bulk.

According to him, it's not so bad. That's why NYC was burying the dead on an island because they ran out of space in cemeteries.

Denial is powerful.

Don't bother with D08, he loses the arguement, makes up personal attacks, ignores all evidence that he's wrong, provides zero evidence or even logic of his side other than quoting the lying media.

NYC got hit hard, for about 2 weeks around the peak, despite being in a lockdown and yesterday 24deaths, the worst is over quick, Florida and other states have the worst to come.

Lockdown merely a delay!!

Not my fault you have 1 of the worst hospital systems in the entire world which is why your NYC deaths per mil are Twice Italys or Spains or the UK's.

 

[Turveyd]

Don't bother with @Turveyd, he makes numbers up on the spot.

It was mayhem in many hospitals from what I hear. Many nurses quit because the situation was so dire, dead bodies being shipped out in bulk.

According to him, it's not so bad. That's why NYC was burying the dead on an island because they ran out of space in cemeteries.

Denial is powerful.

Evidence to support any of this LOL

 

[Turveyd]

Don't bother with @Turveyd, he makes numbers up on the spot.

It was mayhem in many hospitals from what I hear. Many nurses quit because the situation was so dire, dead bodies being shipped out in bulk.

According to him, it's not so bad. That's why NYC was burying the dead on an island because they ran out of space in cemeteries.

Denial is powerful.

Maybe if you'd of paid 2% more on your taxes and signed up for Obama Care, Didn't care about old people dying when you where all making fun of that did you

Wonder how many died treatment refused, no insurance, Cash or Available Credit.

Not that the UK is much better refusing to treat anyone living off the state pretty much Care Homes and worse still Handicapped people are expensive to keep alive i guess.

 

[trading_jean]

But how many cases don't get reported, I know 30+ who've had it, not 1 got reported, I'd bet 90% ( 98% but 90 easier number ) ( including the 50% that have no sympoms don't get reported )

So divide your numbers by 10, 2.5% need hospital and 0.25% need ICU and approx 0.1%-0.2% die. US overall on 0.04%, NYC on 0.15%, UK on 0.07%.

You might be right about dividing the numbers by 2 is not enough; different studies on the subject show very different results. Some studies suggest there are not that many unreported cases in western countries, others argue that only 1 out of 5 cases get reported (1 out of 3 for US in that study). So dividing by 3 or 4 might be as likely, but dividing by 10 is not supported by what we know so far.

A question: how do those 30+ you know that had it know they had it if they didn't get tested?

Not saying all countries should remain in lockdown for the next three years. But local lockdowns, or temporary lockdowns might be necessary again. Mass events probably are not a good idea for a while. And many smaller measures will be necessary for a while as well (masks, social distancing, screens, ...).

Basically what most countries are doing: monitoring on a daily basis and relieving measures when possible/re-introducing measures when necessary.