CV not even remotely close to being priced in

All just media fear, it's really not that bad, no 2nd waves just a 0.1% death rate give or take to get to, and the market knows this and the market knows it'll reverse strong which is why there in long already for that ride.

When people realise they've been played and the media is lying to them or over reacting, happening more and more all the time then the Media will reverse there fear and jump on the we are all going to be fine band wagon and ride that train.


Correct. Wuhan Virus is not even close to the black plague. But the economic damage has already been done. It will all come to light over time measured in quarters, not months. A vaccine with a very high prevention rate will not come fast enough, if at all. This is called creative destruction. And lives move forward and adapt. Unfortunately, coincidentally or not, politics is heavily involved... One party will exacerbate the damage.
 
Correct. Wuhan Virus is not even close to the black plague. But the economic damage has already been done. It will all come to light over time measured in quarters, not months. A vaccine with a very high prevention rate will not come fast enough, if at all. This is called creative destruction. And lives move forward and adapt. Unfortunately, coincidentally or not, politics is heavily involved... One party will exacerbate the damage.

Never worried about the Virus, but the damage done hell yes, got that right :(

People are wising up, but not all and not quick enough, when Florida is over and no big deal without lockdowns hopefully about 6weeks out then, then hopefully the FEAR will be erased.
 
Add this to your scenarios: everybody is damn well sick and tired of lockdowns, masks, etc. (I'm convinced that part of the reason for the rioting is the built-up frustration. Doesn't excuse anything, but it's one of the main drivers behind it.) And politicians are very, very aware of the futility of ordering things that will not be obeyed - because every time they do, they lose authority. If there are any further lockdown orders issued, I don't believe that they'll be obeyed by any significant percentage of the population.

At this point - regardless of what makes sense medically, epidemiologically, etc. - pretty much all of us are going to be exposed to COVID. A large number of us are going to die, and - like the flu, malaria, and lots of other killers that are still on the loose - the public is just going to ignore it and go on with their daily routine. When grandma dies because she couldn't stand not to see her grandkids... well, she was old anyway, right?

Yes, there will be changes. But given my perspective over a rather colorful and relatively long life span, my projection is that they will be much smaller than you expect... except in places where you don't expect them. In other words, life and business (mostly) as usual.

We have a 10pm -6 am curfew and no way to enforce it. People are business as usual.
 
Correct!!!

Big Number of dead 300K+ US, but still small percentage, need to move away from the 300K as it's not got context and seems huge, where as 0.1% is small and more honest.

Notice Media never use the 0.1%, maybe the 4% deaths per test, but never the 0.04% as US currently is per population.

I can't imagine how 0.1% is "more honest" (or even more bewilderingly, "small") when it reflects the same number. Are you looking for something that feels smaller to you personally?

Hundreds of thousands of dead people is still the same horrifying number in a personal sense that it always was. Whatever games you want to play with it, that number of deaths does not change. And you're doing exactly the same thing that you accuse the media of doing - which is emotionally-manipulative games around numbers. What makes your game better than theirs?

What we need are decisions that are as realistic and distortion-free as possible in the face of catastrophe. And catastrophe is the correct classification for anything that kills hundreds of thousands of human beings in a few months.

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We have a 10pm -6 am curfew and no way to enforce it. People are business as usual.

That's what I'm seeing. And given that a number of my acquaintances are in the medical field - nurses, doctors, researchers - and they, from what I see during personal contact, are unable to follow safety protocols during their off time (touching their faces, not wearing masks at all times during contact with the public, not sanitizing their hands as often as they really should)... what chance does the average Joe have?

Human nature makes it impossible. Which devolves to my earlier point... we're just going to take the deaths that result and go back to business as usual, simply because there's nothing else we can do.
 
Only if the people are SCARED shitless by a relentless media, blowing everything and every death into a OMG this could be you, without explaining it's very unlikely to be you unless your 85+ and seriously ill at the same time.

Add the FEAR and they've bent over and taken it well, screaming please save me, without all back to normal :)

The FEAR is slowly going, UK's went from ( my estimate 90% too scared to leave there houses to 40% still worried, kinda realising don't know anyone who's died as the deaths are actually very low 1 in 1000, or 1 in 20,000 if you don't know many 75+ year olds )
My chess teacher once taught me that sometimes the fear of making a move is more powerful than making the move itself. It's the unknown that scares people... that moves people:

- You MIGHT be a carrier
- Corona COULD stay active and alive for over a month
- Could the virus be transmitted by looking at someone?
 
My chess teacher once taught me that sometimes the fear of making a move is more powerful than making the move itself. It's the unknown that scares people... that moves people:

- You MIGHT be a carrier
- Corona COULD stay active and alive for over a month
- Could the virus be transmitted by looking at someone?

Mine taught me you'll never lose a game if your prepared to sit and wait for your opponent to quit or die.

Looking at lol
 
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