Current Forecasts - ET Extremists

[der_kommissar]

You seem mentally unstable and unable to stay on topic.

The topic is your incessant idiocy...Newsflash: data looks the best when equities are topping out...Now go datamine some more bullish data for us, skippy.

 

[der_kommissar]

if i told you back in 2000 that rates would go to 0% and stay there you would say the same thing, but here we are

i'm not saying it will happen, but if china can't restart their economy then you think today's 200k jobs number will matter?

certainly wouldn't be long equities here

His head would have exploded...It would make his list of "extreme forecasts" and he'd probably start another thread in feedback about how unfair life is for him...

 

[Nine_Ender]

if i told you back in 2000 that rates would go to 0% and stay there you would say the same thing, but here we are

i'm not saying it will happen, but if china can't restart their economy then you think today's 200k jobs number will matter?

certainly wouldn't be long equities here

GDP in China is still growing around 7% per year. Not sure what you want to restart, 11% growth isn't sustainable, but that hardly matters unless you are forecasting profound wealth for the world; you are instead forecasting the opposite. If China was in a mild recession, would the US go into a Depression ? No, not even in that scenario. In my opinion, the US economy will succeed or fail regardless of China, but if China grows and US based companies profit from that growth, it's a relevant positive. US economy has done well in the past with almost no business with China.

 

[recession2016]

GDP in China is still growing around 7% per year. Not sure what you want to restart, 11% growth isn't sustainable, but that hardly matters unless you are forecasting profound wealth for the world; you are instead forecasting the opposite. If China was in a mild recession, would the US go into a Depression ? No, not even in that scenario. In my opinion, the US economy will succeed or fail regardless of China, but if China grows and US based companies profit from that growth, it's a relevant positive. US economy has done well in the past with almost no business with China.

it was forecast to grow at 7.5% at the beginning of the year and forecasts were cut throughout the year (average economist has china growing at 6.8% this year), and a few rate cuts won't keep it from slowing - recession for china is around 5% growth

Couple this with a few rate hikes by the FED into a bearish market, drying up liquidity even further, could be catastrophic.

When has the US done well when China was slowing like this? Name just one scenario in the last 20 years.

 

[romik]

Raising interest rates would send stock market into a definitive downtrend as borrowing costs in percentage terms would greatly increase, if you lift say 0.5 to 0.75 it's a 50% increase.

 

[Nine_Ender]

This illustrious poster predicts a global economic recession in as little as 12 months, despite the IMF projecting 3.1% growth in 2015 :

Just as the fed is about to raise rates we keep hearing how there is a global slow down coming and that downside risks appear to be stronger than ever before....I guess thats why most central bankers are cutting rates, to get ready for the global recession thats going to occur in the next 12-18 months!!!


IMF cuts global growth forecasts for 2015 again
Holly Ellyatt | @HollyEllyatt
27 Mins AgoCNBC.com
140
SHARES


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has trimmed its expected global growth forecasts for 2015 again and has warned that downside risks to the global economy appear "more pronounced."

Global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from its July forecast for 3.3 percent growth, according to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. It cited weaker growth prospects for emerging economies, including China, and a decline in commodity prices as a reason for the revision. ...

 

[i960]

I haven't the slightest why you're so incredibly optimistic given the shit-ton of underlying economic issues out there. You do realize grow and recede is also a normal cycle, right?

 

[S2007S]

This illustrious poster predicts a global economic recession in as little as 12 months, despite the IMF projecting 3.1% growth in 2015 :

Yes 12-18 months

Forget about projecting growth...a recession is defined as the fall of gdp for 2 successive quarters ....do you not see every central bank around the world lowering interest rates just to keep their gdp from falling ever so slightly...once the world has cut rates to zero whats next.....everyone is following the US like they think we got out of the crisis with zero problems, little do they know of the significant problems that lie ahead....zero rates...trillions in debt and trillions in stimulus has destroyed what this country used to stand for...how many times are we going raise the debt ceiling and print more money to make wallstreet happy....the game is almost over..

 

[S2007S]

Raising interest rates would send stock market into a definitive downtrend as borrowing costs in percentage terms would greatly increase, if you lift say 0.5 to 0.75 it's a 50% increase.

Exactly, why do you think the fed is putting off month after month ..year after year....they want the most perfect scenario to raise rates...guess what...they are NEVER EVER GOING TO GET THAT PERFECT scenario...

 

[der_kommissar]

a 15 touch on vix by DEC

Nice one...already in that 15 touch in Oct.