Quote from Cache Landing:
It is true that florida is supposedly a closed primary, but I'm looking at all the exit polls.
17% of all GOP voters called themselves independents. Mac got 44% of them compared to Mitt's 23%.
It was a dead heat at 33% each amongst those calling themselves republicans.
When you then consider whether people call themselves conservative, moderate, or liberal. Mac dominated moderate and liberal with 43% and 49%, compared to Mitt's 21% and 24% respectively.
Among conservatives Mitt dominated with 37%, with Mac second at just 29%.
The assumption that more Huck defectors will go to Mitt comes from the idea that the vast majority of Huck voters call themselves either conservative or very conservative. With very few calling themselves moderate or liberal. This is almost an exact copy of Mitt's support, While the majority of Mac's supporters call themselves moderate or liberal.
My assumption is that conservatives in general are more likely to switch to the other conservative. While religious prejudice probably has something to do with it, Mitt also won among those calling themselves Christians. Mormons made up less than 1% of the vote. Huck obviously had a disproportionately large number of supporters calling themselves Christians. I would then assume that those would more likely choose the other most popular candidate among the Christian set.
Statistical analysis tells the same story, which is probably why most political analysts regardless of affiliation are saying the same thing.
