Current Delegate Counts

It is true that Romney's delegate count is inflated a bit by Nevada Mormons, something like 4-5 extra delegates, but the rest was simply getting his name out. Nobody else except Ron Paul was campaigning in Nevada and up until 1 week ago the polls had Giuliani leading there because of electibality issues.

Even if we bring his Mormon support down to lower levels he still has a dramatic lead in the delegate count. Remember, he only got 18 delegates from Nevada. Without Mormon support he still would've gotten about 12-16 of those. Look at the evangelical vote in Nevada. 40% of them still went with Romney.

In fact, Iowa and SC are the only two states where Huckabee has beaten Romney among Evangelicals. OTOH, Only in SC has Huckabee beaten Romney amoung non-evangelicals.

It doesn't matter how I look at things, Romney is the strongest single candidate right now. Sure, McCain and huckabee would be a strong ticket, but neither one of them measures up alone. I don't see a Mac/Huck ticket at this point. Mac/Thompson is much more likely.

Anyway, I think a much stronger ticket would be Mitt/Rudy. Rudy delivers Florida, Cali, NY, and New Jersey. Mitt delivers the religious right, as well as the economy focussed voters. The 08' election would be a landslide GOP win in that case.
 
Today is huge for Mac and Mitt and Rudy. Huck is pretty much out of Florida and I think ultimately out of the race after Feb. 5.

This is Rudy's last chance to save himself from his free-fall.

This is where Mac will have to show that he can actually debate when he being attacked.

Mitt will come out shining if Rudy goes after Mac and he doesn't have to. Guaranteed that Mitt will be talking economy in every response and this last global scare was perfect for the strategy he has chosen.

IMO, this one is Romney's to lose. He'd better be on his game tonight because Mac is coming after him on the Mass. economy during his term as governor.

If I were strategy adviser to each of them I would recommend the following.

Mac should attack Mitt, focus on jobs not created during his term as gov of Mass.

Huck should attack Mitt. Focus on Mitt's inability to relate to real people during times of economic distress.

Rudy should attack Mac. Point out that everything Mac can do, he can do better, but that he is also more conservative than "liberal flip-flopping" Mac.

Mitt shouldn't need to attack anyone. Have responses ready with an optimistic tone on how he will turn Washington around the same way he's turned numerous other entities around. Emphasize that America is great and that Washington is causing the problems. If he has to go on offense it should be directed toward Mac, on the grounds of his complete inability to manage the economy and his liberal tax and immigration policies.
 
Quote from Cache Landing:


If I were strategy adviser to each of them I would recommend the following.

Mac should attack Mitt, focus on jobs not created during his term as gov of Mass.

Huck should attack Mitt. Focus on Mitt's inability to relate to real people during times of economic distress.

Rudy should attack Mac. Point out that everything Mac can do, he can do better, but that he is also more conservative than "liberal flip-flopping" Mac.

Mitt shouldn't need to attack anyone. Have responses ready with an optimistic tone on how he will turn Washington around the same way he's turned numerous other entities around. Emphasize that America is great and that Washington is causing the problems. If he has to go on offense it should be directed toward Mac, on the grounds of his complete inability to manage the economy and his liberal tax and immigration policies.
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Well, only one of the candidates took my advice last night. :D

The debate was incredibly civil, which was the best thing Mitt could hope for.

Rudy needed to go after Mac; he didn't.
Mac needed to go after Mitt; he didn't.
Huck needed to go after Mitt; he didn't.
Mitt just needed to talk about the economy; HE DID!!!!

And the moderators gave him ample time in the spotlight which he completely took advantage of. In short, Mitt dominated that somewhat lackluster debate, and he even managed to start campaigning for the general election. Florida is his as long as he manages not to self-destruct this weekend as the others desperately try to slow him down.
 
It was amazing to see the contrast between last night's GOP debate and the DEM debate a couple days ago.

While watching the DEM debate I was hoping for some legitimate debate and was very surprised by the playground banter. One single sentence sums up that debate.

"I know you are, but what am I?"

I expected it from Hillary as she desperately wants this to be a racial election. She can't simply try to get the woman vote to ensure victory. She needs for people to think that black voters are supporting Obama on the grounds of race only. Then she might be able to get whites to vote for her on racial terms.

Something everyone should get past here. A huge number of voters support the candidate they can best relate to.

Women are understandably better able to relate to Hillary.

Blacks better relate to Obama.

Mormons relate best to Romney.

But Hillary needs to get real here. She has a legitimate shot and is able to run against Obama on her own merits. bringing race into things makes her look like a clown.

Odds are about 3:1 right now that the winner next November is a victim if significant prejudice. Many men won't vote for Hillary. Many whites won't vote for Obama. Many evangelicals won't vote for Mitt.

The most interesting thing would come in a Mitt/Obama race. Obama obviously loses most racial white votes in the south, which Mitt would obviously gain. Mitt also loses most evangelical votes in the south, which Obama would gain. Hard to say where more bigotry resides.
 
We can get too much of a good thing. Debates are good for getting to know the candidates, but come on, like a dozen debates in a row? And some people actually watching them??
 
Quote from Pekelo:

We can get too much of a good thing. Debates are good for getting to know the candidates, but come on, like a dozen debates in a row? And some people actually watching them??
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I know many people still watching them. The debate haven't been horrible, but the endless analysis between debates is getting tiresome. Especially since the "analysts" are so far off all the time.
 
Quote from Cache Landing:



Romney -- 63
Huckabee -- 60
Giuliani -- 46
McCAin -- 29
Thompson -- 14
Paul -- 4
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Well, Florida is upon us now. The results don't really matter on the DEM side so there isn't really much to predict. Candidates were encouraged not to campaign there.

The above numbers were my predictions a few weeks ago regarding the delegate count going into Super Tuesday for the GOP race. Looks like I was way off.

Huckabee fell off completely and Thompson withdrew, throwing a ton of support toward Romney.

I was really close on Paul even though he did manage to get a few more votes in Nevada than I'd expected.

The biggest loser turned out to be Giuliani and I agree with one analyst who said it best. "If he were in the Olympics I would give him a perfect 10 for that dive."

The race is obviously very close in Florida, but I've come up with what I think is an objective opinion along with supporting analysis.

Mac and Rudy are fighting for votes as I said before. I believe this will cause problems for Mac and in the end it will likely cost him the nomination. Even though Mac will still have a pretty strong showing on Super Tuesday, Rudy is gonna stay in it and probably drop out shortly after that. There are a couple residuals from this that Mac gets killed by.

First off, Rudy campaigned hard for early voters in Florida. These voters probably wouldn't have voted for Mitt anyway, but were instead much more likely to go with Mac. Many of these voters wouldn't have seen the Rudy free-fall coming. Many of those already cast their votes for Rudy preventing them from switching to Mac when the lead shifted.

Rudy is most likely to make a last minute surge which will draw support away from Mac but leave Mitt relatively unscathed. Huck is not likely at all to make a surge and there is no evidence yet that Fred's voters are going with him instead of Mitt. Especially after the Thompson advisor endorsed Mitt as the "only candidate with a comprehensive plan".

Rudy staying in through Feb 5 is a killer for Mac also because otherwise Mac would win NY, NJ, and CA. NY & NJ will almost positively still go with Rudy costing Mac about 100 delegates. Mac will still probably win in CA, but it is a really hard race for him now. CA GOP made it closed to registered GOP voters only. Then consider that any close finish by Romney, who's jumping in the polls, will take a good chunk of the delegates there. CA is not a winner-take-all state.

In the end tomorrow I think the numbers will come in as follows.

Mitt --- 29%
Mac --- 25
Rudy --- 22%
Huck --- 15%
Paul --- 9%

Huck will be out of it completely as his campaign is completely out of money. but will not drop out because they have become masters of running a campaign with nothing. His followers are much more likely to volunteer than other candidates. They're out after Feb. 5.

Paul will of course keep chugging along, but I'd love to see him fall in line with Mitt and try to get appointed Secretary of Treasury. :) He's in it to the end, and possibly saving money for an indie run. The better question is what will he do with all that money if he doesn't run indie?

Rudy will continue to fall nationally and he has no money left after blowing it all in Florida. He'll stay in just long enough to really do some damage to Mac.

Mac is in it to the end now. He just raised $7MM, and has the ability to raise more for additional campaigning. This is his last shot as another Presidential bid is out of the question after this. A loss in Florida will cripple him though.

It'll be interesting if Mitt wins Florida as that would mean that a GOP front-runner has been established and he would become the probable nominee, while a DEM race is still completely up in the air.
 
unless they are lying about rudy's polling numbers.. he is done. stick a fork in his panty hose. florida is nasty anyways though.... this leaves seamus romney and mccain to see which CFR puppet moves fwd. is anyone else tired of all the filth?
 
Quote from ratboy88:

unless they are lying about rudy's polling numbers.. he is done. stick a fork in his panty hose. florida is nasty anyways though.... this leaves seamus romney and mccain to see which CFR puppet moves fwd. is anyone else tired of all the filth?
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I understand your sentiment, but this thread is for objective analysis of the election process. Conspiracy theories and all other political nonsense doesn't really have a place here.

Obviously, as I've stated before, I think Mitt is the single best candidate in the field. There are other possible combinations that are better than him, but my conclusions are based on the merits of each single individual.

I like Paul's message but I wish it was someone like Mitt declaring it. Paul will get nowhere with it. He hasn't gotten anywhere with it so far and he won't get anywhere with it during this election. He should ask Mitt to appoint him Secretary of the Treasury.

I would say to appoint him Fed Chairman, but I think that would probably disrupt the space-time-continuum or something. There's gotta be something wrong with appointing Paul chairman of an organization he diametrically opposes. :D
 
Well, this is old news now, but I thought I should post the delegate counts till now.

Mac = 97
Mitt = 74
Huck = 29
Paul = 6

Mac pulled off the win in Florida by again getting the independent vote. Mitt again beat him amongst conservative republicans who made up 70% of voters.

Strangely enough it seems that Huck is going to be the deciding factor in this race. He keeps stealing just enough conservatives away from Mitt to allow Mac the win. The same will happen on Feb 5. There are about 6 states that Mitt would likely win if Huck dropped out. But as he stays in, Mac wins by default when he gets all the moderate votes.
 
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