Crypto Troubles

[Ed48]

Imho, bitcoin will go to $500K in 5 years and to $1M in 10 years

NFA, but it's a good risk-reward investment buying bitcoin when its price is down and hold for the length of time mentioned above

Yes but there may be opportunities elsewhere where there's a better chance of getting a 10-bagger in the next few years. If you're interested in making money, why stay 100% in crypto?

I suspect many who are currently speculating on crypto will jump ship in a flash if something else is suddenly perceived as a better bet.

A sensible approach may be to spread your money across a few speculative baskets. It is often said that diversification [across asset classes] is the only free lunch in the markets.

 

[deaddog]

some people never get it.

i have made 18,000 % on my investment < i didn't type that wrong since 2013 with just btc, so how can i lose now?

Realized or unrealized?

Now you can lose if the price drops and continues to drop.

As far as I can see at one time BTC was worth 67K and is now 40ish. Don't you consider that a loss?

 

[Statistical Trader]

Realized or unrealized?

Now you can lose if the price drops and continues to drop.

As far as I can see at one time BTC was worth 67K and is now 40ish. Don't you consider that a loss?

Of course I can't speak for Mark, but there are options markets for BTC. It's pretty easy to hedge while remaining exposed for potential further upside. There is still some counter-party risk, of course, but that's a different conversation.

Your point is well taken that "paper" losses are still losses, however. I've never agreed with the sentiment that "it's 'just' a paper loss..."

For my part, I have a certain percentage of my portfolio in BTC. I'm certainly not betting the farm, but I have no problem putting a certain percentage in.

Right now I'm sitting on long term BTC profits, with protective puts at $20K and $40K, and I also lightened some of my long BTC by selling BTC futures at $70K when BTC was in the mid-$60s and those have yet to expire. The derivatives market in BTC has some very interesting and unusual characteristics that one can take advantage of if careful.

 

[Pekelo]

Realized or unrealized?

Exactly. Anyone who held through the 20K to 3K drop can consider themselves lucky, they just shouldn't call themselves a trader. And yes, I posted and predicted that drop here on ET.

Now if Mark sold out at that run up and brought it back 50-70% lower, than I bow myself to him, but not very likely. He should have a gazillion times 10 return now.

 

[MarkBrown]

What should people "get" now? Does it mean buying btc now at 38k and expecting 18,000% return over the next nine years like you? Would you be ok with 38k being your cost basis in btc?

GIFT > I trade the spread between ETH-BTC here is what I do to buy free BTC.

I wait till BTC is stronger than ETH and then I sell all my BTC and buy ETH then I wait till ETH is stronger than BTC and I sell all my ETH and use the profits to buy even more BTC.

I use percentages to determine when to switch and I use limit orders to trade fee free.

By trading the spread between ETH-BTC you don't really care if either one is up or down all you care about is the micro moves between the two. But my goal is to just keep buying more and more BTC with free money generated from profits.

repeat over and over, running circles around most global investors in the business. i am about to add SOL to the mix and do a triple arbitrage. i will answer any questions anyone cares to ask.


here is what the spread looks like on a chart. this is in coinbase, but i use multicharts for my analysis.

 

[The_Krakenite]

Kraken, Coinbase, etc. Pretty much all the crypto exchange are not going to freeze Russian assets, unless the west did some sort of forced court-order thing. And even if the West manages to pull that off, there is little chance that exchanges like Binance or others in China would agree to it.

What are you going to do, threaten Binance it can't service Americans? That's already been done!

 

[Statistical Trader]

GIFT > I trade the spread between ETH-BTC here is what I do to buy free BTC.

Thanks for sharing, Mark.

I've considered something similar, but was not sure if/why BTC/ETH will continue to maintain their relationship in the future. Do you have reasoning behind this relationship holding over the long term?

Edit: Looking at the chart you posted, it seems you do this intraday?

 

[MarkBrown]

Thanks for sharing, Mark.

I've considered the same thing, but was not sure if/why BTC/ETH will continue to maintain their relationship in the future. Do you have reasoning behind this relationship holding over the long term?

Yes - for now they are the two main crypto's that major investors are interested in. i often look at what i am doing myself and figure other people are doing the same.

i found myself torn between btc and it's lower performance as opposed to eth. then i would notice that btc was outrunning eth on a percentage basis. then it hit me to trade the spread as it is very cyclical and predictable.

i now look for similar products of many coins to spread, if they show cyclical tendencies.

m

 

[BONECRUSHER]

GIFT > I trade the spread between ETH-BTC here is what I do to buy free BTC.

I wait till BTC is stronger than ETH and then I sell all my BTC and buy ETH then I wait till ETH is stronger than BTC and I sell all my ETH and use the profits to buy even more BTC.

I use percentages to determine when to switch and I use limit orders to trade fee free.

By trading the spread between ETH-BTC you don't really care if either one is up or down all you care about is the micro moves between the two. But my goal is to just keep buying more and more BTC with free money generated from profits.

repeat over and over, running circles around most global investors in the business. i am about to add SOL to the mix and do a triple arbitrage. i will answer any questions anyone cares to ask.


here is what the spread looks like on a chart. this is in coinbase, but i use multicharts for my analysis.

Thanks Mark. I've been doing this same method, but with silver and gold miners for many years...never thought about doing it with btc/eth.

 

[MarkBrown]

Thanks Mark. I've been doing this same method, but with silver and gold miners for many years...never thought about doing it with btc/eth.

see you know the spreads between silver and gold because you have watched the correlation long enough to have experience when things are out of whack. everyone who trades could benefit trading spreads between markets that they know well and have practical experience with.

we all just have to study something long enough and it will come. the thing i love about the crypto's is that so many of them are actually spreads so i don't get slippage trying to juggle two different markets with possibly two different exchanges etc.

m