Crypto Troubles

Statistical Trader said:
I don't think you mean the uncertainty of the ownership of BTC being registered virtually, unless you put physical stock certificates in a vault
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1500889566483709952


Statistical Trader said:
I have zero interest in "selling the dream," although that may just be me. I avoid talking about BTC with people in my regular life
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Like every Bitcoin evangelist, there was a time in 2013-2016 that I would bring up Bitcoin at every family gathering, get-together with old friends and reunions with college buddies. My friends at work absolutely made fun of me!! No one was interested

The nicer reactions are the empty looks, like talking with someone but nothing clicks and no real questions. Polite listeners, but not interested

I did that because it clicked on me, the value of Bitcoin as a superior investment asset, a bearer asset, a global asset, a store of value and I wanted my family, my friends, even my acquaintances to benefit from my knowledge

And even now, Bitcoin and cryptos evangelists are ridiculed here on ET. As if we're fucking snake oil salesmen trying to peddle something of no value. I many times wonder if it's worth posting here on ET for all the shits that we get...

And then I reflect. I've been fortunate. My family has benefited greatly from this greatest wealth creation in the history of the world that is Bitcoin and crypto assets. So, let's just enjoy it and keep posting, what the hell, the world's about to end anyway, just have fun with every moment we have :D




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https://twitter.com/x/status/1495739150246555652
 
Statistical Trader said:
Here's my view on GFT in general terms: When you have an irrational bubble brewing, it is usually an excellent trend following opportunity. ..................

I'm not saying that BTC is GFT, but even if it is, I don't care. I'll still make profits and keep most of them even when the music stops. If it isn't, then so much the better.
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I agree it's something you can trade.
That's how I became aquainted with Johnarb, we had a discussion on whether you would make more trading than buy and hold.


(Incidentally, I believe you live not to far from me in this rainy province...)
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Look for me in the middle of the province.
IF one day it becomes commonplace to pay for goods and services with BTC, direct from purchaser to seller, then this would be an overwhelmingly better solution for such people. It will exacerbate problems for their home currency (which is why foreign accounts are illegal in these countries) but that's a separate problem.
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I'm all for a decentralized medium fo exchange. I just don't think it should be a get rich quick scheme.


I don't think you mean the uncertainty of the ownership of BTC being registered virtually, unless you put physical stock certificates in a vault; I think you mean that BTC is neither a productive asset (eg: company producing something tangible) nor a physical commodity with intrinsic utility?
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Actually I'm an old fart and naevely believe in the financial institutions I deal with. I trust my bank and broker. I feel like I might have some recourse if someone steals my credit card. Errors made by brokerage employees have been corrected. I'm not sure that happens with bitcoin.

And I agree that BTC is neither a productive asset or a physical commodity.

I value BTC the same way I value sugar #11 - supply and demand. There are other methods to value BTC, too, that are more crypto-centric.

Now, you may not AGREE with some of the valuation methods out there, and that would be fair, but there are lots of ways to try to calculate its value. I think what you mean is there is no way to value it like we might value a company (price-to-book, price-to-earnings, debt-to-equity, etc) and you are worried it doesn't have intrinsic value, like lumber or orange juice?

We value commodities in similar ways to how many value BTC, it's just that forecasts for demand are constructed very differently for other commodities compared to BTC. Well, so also are forecasts for supply very different between the two... but for BTC the supply forecast is easy, so we're just left with demand, which is very different and perhaps trickier. Perhaps.
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I should have said that I don't have a method of valuing bitcoin that I'm comfortable with.

I'm not going to invest any money in any asset just because I see an ad that says I'm missing the opportunity of a lifetime. If I want to do that I can play penny stocks.

The supply demand right now seem to be weighted towards the supply side even though there is a limited supply. Price is the measure and price keeps making lower highs in the short term. I agree it is also making higher lows so something should give shortly but I'll wait and see.
If BTC provides something of value then its price is going to be driven mostly by non-western participants first, partly because it is so volatile (although my analysis suggests this is decreasing). Only when volatility dies down substantially, will it become more popular in the west for actual transactions. I'm honestly not sure if that will happen in my lifetime and I truly think that either way, it will be here longer than me.

However, as I explained at the outset, even if I'm wrong, I've already won. I love trading bubbles, too.
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At the present moment I don't hold any bitcoin or any other crypto assets in my portfolio. Heavy to cash as the stock market has been selling off.
 
Once I bought a lottery ticket and won 6 digits with it.* Since then at every family gatherings I wouldn't stop talking about playing the lottery. At first I only got blank stares then my uncle won 10K. Since then every week everyone in the family spends 4-500 bucks on lottery tickets. We can feel the millions pouring in. If not this week, the next months...

*Not a true story, just making an analogy
 
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