Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

johnarb said:
The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable :D

That would be wild, lol, putting it on here coz no one would believe it if it happens when bitcoin goes to $100k within 6 months and the second order effect on the MSTR share price
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Update on the MSTR call options position. NFA

Bitcoin is $57k, MSTR is almost $900... things are going well, only 700% to go, not 15,000%

But to go up 700% from $6.5k is less than $40k, to go up 700% from here is slightly more, about $880k

Doable. Price of MSTR would have to be around $2k/share...

I think MSTR will go to $10k+ by eoy 2025, but my call options position will expire in 5 months so I do not have that much time


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johnarb said:
MSTR is a leverage play on bitcoin

it utilizes the company's operating profits/FCF, ability to issue debt-convertibles and ability to issue more shares to acquire more bitcoins

MSTR is a mature company, something to ponder, they were making $50M/yr in profits before Bitcoin, now, they have $4B of unrealized profits on their bitcoin holdings. This would have taken them ~80 years of operations (no growth, remember mature)

Every time bitcoin goes up by $26xx, MSTR earns $1B in unrealized profits or 10 years of their old business operating income

My numbers could be off, just going by memory on what I read here and there

MSTR announced it is now a Bitcoin Development company similar to Petroleum development company, or something like that
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Saylor’s a visionary but what of an unforeseen personal event? Is the MSTR culture strong enough to continue?
 
Sprout said:
Saylor’s a visionary but what of an unforeseen personal event? Is the MSTR culture strong enough to continue?
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I saw a video where Saylor has addressed this, even after he retires, everything has been put in place. Most corporations have business continuity stuff as part of disaster recovery planning

MSTR is a Bitcoin development company now, practically the simplest model there is, purchase bitcoin with operating profits, issue debt to buy bitcoins, sell shares to buy bitcoins, rinse repeat, profit
 
johnarb said:
The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable :D

That would be wild, lol, putting it on here coz no one would believe it if it happens when bitcoin goes to $100k within 6 months and the second order effect on the MSTR share price
More...

Minor update on the MSTR call options position. Moved up the 2nd level of 6-figure value. Onwards...


upload_2024-3-1_15-13-21.png
 
johnarb said:
The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable :D
More...

Just a minor update, mstr call options position skipped some 6-figure levels and went straight to 5th level of 6-figure value (a little lower at the moment)


upload_2024-3-5_9-40-10.png
 
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