Thank you very much, jbusse!
It's not over until I have closed part of all the position for more than $27k, but I am very confident as long as bitcoin price is good (above $43k)
Some suggest MSTR will underperform bitcoin just after an ETF approval because some who hold MSTR for bitcoin exposure will move $ out of MSTR and into one of the bitcoin ETFs. I understand that some of that would be offset because MSTR is leveraged to bitcoin. Anyway, something to consider.
I have seen this idea discussed on a few youtube videos and even on Twitter (X now) someone has laid out the argument there is no longer a need for all the MSTR-proxy-btc-stock investors
I take a different view, but let me put a disclaimer that I have no formal training (i.e. college courses) in financial stock market. Definitely nfa, lol
My take on MSTR is that its enterprise value is derived mostly from of its btc holdings, with a side-hustle of its mature business intelligence software
The software business allows it to acquire more bitcoins by being able to issue debt convertibles, issue more stock (when MSTR price is high) to acquire more bitcoins, and use the operating profits to acquire more bitcoins
imho, the stock market is mostly a casino, but there are strict rules that ensure market valuations are reflective of EV
For instance, how else is Amazon valued at $1.5 T when it has never given a dividend, the shareholders are just buying it because the business is valuable, but that value is locked
The market (and AMZN shareholders) are smart, they know if the price gets too low, they can just liquidate the business, break it apart and sell parts, like that dude on pretty woman movie
Same thing with MSTR, which has a much simpler EV structure, mostly derived from the btc holdings and the price of bitcoin determines how high the value of its assets and thus MSTR EV
The buyers of MSTR debt understand this. I remember last year they announced a debt offering and it was oversubscribed by over $1B
The buyers of MSTR stock understand this. I remember last year Microstrategy announced they will issue more shares to buy more bitcoins and the share price went up (counter-intuitive on the surface, but the market goes deep analysis)
Efficient market theory
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To get back to the bitcoin spot etf's, why would I see that as a positive?
I'm a sub-100 IQ but I do have a wild imagination at times
What if it's possible for MSTR to partner with one of the ETF issuers like Fidelity and deposit say 10% of its bitcoin holdings to the ETF and get ETF shares in return
And then Mircrostrategy announces this deal and say the ETF shares will be issued as special dividend to the shareholders, currently $48/share (0.0011 btc/share)
And then Microstrategy announces it will issue 10% more shares to buy more bitcoins, if the price of MSTR goes up, MSTR will end up with more btc's
Accretive to the shareholders. tl;dr bitcoin spot etf approval pushes btc price higher, MSTR share price goes higher
