Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[johnarb]

Closing the long 5 btc perp futures position and re-opening long 5 btc perp futures position

This will allow me to unlock the funds and withdraw, only leaving a little over 20k usdt as collateral, liquidation will be updated on a follow up post

Closed and re-opened the position. Withdrew excess Usdt from the perp futures platform dex

**** Long 5 btc perpetual futures, liquidation if btc goes below $40.5k ****​

I might add more collateral if needed, current collateral is 20.5k Usdt

There's no capital at risk. Already got the initial collateral from 2 months ago in the starting trade position plus all other collateral Usdt added, plus profits

I believe btc will go above $50k before end of Bullcember

nfa

 

[johnarb]

NFA

$Rune is down about 15%, a good signal to lower the cost-basis (lower the capital at risk on the trade)

Cut the position by 3600 $Rune coins

$23k risk capital investment when I posted $Rune a month and half ago is now worth over $71k m2m
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/thorchain

Just an update on the Thorchain $Rune position

This is a no-leverage spot alt-coin investment, in-wallet, self-custodial crypto asset

Sold the 3600 $Rune for $5.25, now trading much higher, but there is no sellers remorse, it was a money-management risk management move

**** The total capital at risk currently is less than 4k Usdt ****​

There will be plenty of profits to make during the crypto bull market

I think $Rune can hit $100 during this bull market, will I feel bad for lost $350k profits? No, because with a very low capital at risk, there is not much emotional worries to the trade and can hold

This is the same trading/investment methodology I employ even in TradFi. Defined risk + fuck it strategy, hold for big profits or lose the risk capital

In the Mstr options position initiated over 1.5 years ago, the defined risk capital was $27k, it went as high in value to $52k+ m2m last year and 2 months ago, it went as low as $2.3k m2m, from 100% profit to 90% loss

But currently, the Mstr options position is well in profits again, with 1 month and 13 days to expiration, update will posted after Friday close

 

[NoahA]

So let me ask you John. I saw a post from Arthur Hayes that he is hoping SOL pumps to $100. This got me thinking after what you said about him, do you think he is literally just looking for exit liquidity on his position? He maybe just wants it to break above the high at $68 now, and wants to sell into the 70's and 80's. Someone commented about him being in the SOL family, and he said he doesn't give a fuck what it does, only that if it moves, he trades it.

I don't have enough familiarity with Arthur, so I'm not sure how he operates, but after you gave me the heads up, I can see how he could easily be working his own position with his tweets. I was worried when FTX was unloading so much SOL these past couple of months, but price kept rising, so that was interesting, but I was just curious on your take.

 

[johnarb]

So let me ask you John. I saw a post from Arthur Hayes that he is hoping SOL pumps to $100. This got me thinking after what you said about him, do you think he is literally just looking for exit liquidity on his position? He maybe just wants it to break above the high at $68 now, and wants to sell into the 70's and 80's. Someone commented about him being in the SOL family, and he said he doesn't give a fuck what it does, only that if it moves, he trades it.

I don't have enough familiarity with Arthur

The coin that I think Arthur needs exit liquidity is on Filecoin $Fil

Arthur literally invented perpetual futures and was co-founder of Bitmex, so when he says he doesn't give a fuck what $Sol does, up or down, as long as it moves, he's literally talking about trading it with perpetual futures

I mentioned on another post that George CryptosRus got into perpetual futures trading and he made I believe 700% ROI within a few days on $Sol using perpetual futures

Leverage is great on a volatile crypto asset like $Sol that has very good liquidity, can get in and out or flip long/short because the spread is tight

I don't own any $Sol, the only altcoins I have in my portfolio are $Rune and $Cake (which will be unlocked in a couple of weeks, so possibly I might close the $Cake investment),

The thing with $Sol is it's a VC coin, FTX/Alameda and a bunch of VC's and a bunch of insiders and they got literally massive amount of coins for a discount. I don't know if Arthur is one of those insiders...

But before you sell all your $Sol, I am not giving financial advise, but Solana ecosystem has been going crazy with so much development and if it can flip or challenge Ethereum as the dominant smart-contract blockchain, then $Sol will go much much higher from here

I'm sure you're familiar with this video

Buy bitcoin only

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456002541808807938

 

[NoahA]

The coin that I think Arthur needs exit liquidity is on Filecoin $Fil

Arthur literally invented perpetual futures and was co-founder of Bitmex, so when he says he doesn't give a fuck what $Sol does, up or down, as long as it moves, he's literally talking about trading it with perpetual futures

I mentioned on another post that George CryptosRus got into perpetual futures trading and he made I believe 700% ROI within a few days on $Sol using perpetual futures

Leverage is great on a volatile crypto asset like $Sol that has very good liquidity, can get in and out or flip long/short because the spread is tight

I don't own any $Sol, the only altcoins I have in my portfolio are $Rune and $Cake (which will be unlocked in a couple of weeks, so possibly I might close the $Cake investment),

The thing with $Sol is it's a VC coin, FTX/Alameda and a bunch of VC's and a bunch of insiders and they got literally massive amount of coins for a discount. I don't know if Arthur is one of those insiders...

But before you sell all your $Sol, I am not giving financial advise, but Solana ecosystem has been going crazy with so much development and if it can flip or challenge Ethereum as the dominant smart-contract blockchain, then $Sol will go much much higher from here

I'm sure you're familiar with this video

Buy bitcoin only

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456002541808807938

Wow... What a video... Makes me sick.

Yes, I knew it was a VC coin, but way after I bought it. It does seem to be pumping, but I'd love to get out, even if for a small loss.

I just found out there is a 2x BTC etf, bitx, so that is perhaps safer. Of course it sucks to be at the mercy of RTH time frame.

 

[johnarb]

1.5 years since this trade was initiated

Been a wild ride on this long options calls position risk capital of $27k (cost of all the options in the position)

At the highest m2m valuation, the position was worth $52k (may have been higher intraday)

At the lowest m2m valuation a month ago (10/13/2023), the position was worth $2,500

So from the highest 100% profit to the lowest 90% loss, here we are at about break-even

Update on the MSTR calls position expiration 1/19/2024

The position is in profits m2m. Will it stay in profits? Yes, I believe it will...

Ideally, if the position is worth over $100k on Dec 28 is to sell part of the position (up to half), pay the taxes for 2023

, and sell the rest in January if the Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved by January 10, 2024 and capture the upside volatility move

That's the plan, but the market has a way to ruin any plans

nfa

 

[The_Krakenite]

Ideally, if the position is worth over $100k on Dec 28 is to sell part of the position (up to half), pay the taxes for 2023

Nope, the tax-man will rape you on fines and interest penalties for that. Dec 28 is a Thursday. But it's the Settlement Date that IRS looks for transactions to be logged. Since it's T+2 (not including weekends, you'd settle on Monday... and that would already be 2024.

In fact, it's worse than that, because Jan 1 is generally a public holiday, which means you wouldn't settle until Tuesday Jan 2nd?

Though, some Bonds and MoneyMarkets can settle anywhere from T+1 to T+3 so check those records good...

 

[johnarb]

Nope, the tax-man will rape you on fines and interest penalties for that. Dec 28 is a Thursday. But it's the Settlement Date that IRS looks for transactions to be logged. Since it's T+2 (not including weekends, you'd settle on Monday... and that would already be 2024.

In fact, it's worse than that, because Jan 1 is generally a public holiday, which means you wouldn't settle until Tuesday Jan 2nd?

Though, some Bonds and MoneyMarkets can settle anywhere from T+1 to T+3 so check those records good...

I think the 1099 goes by transaction date & time, but I should have clarified I would sell on the last trading week

If the current pattern for btc holds, bounce up/down over the weekend and rip higher from Sunday night to Tuesday morning, then languish to Friday, which means I should sell late Monday Dec 26

Anyway, this is only if position is m2m over worth $100k and not planning to close the whole position, it's more to divide the tax obligations for 2023/2024, or so a trader's plan, who knows, maybe in 3 weeks, profits are lost if btc pulls back hard from here...

 

[The_Krakenite]

I did a bit of looking just now. It seems you may be correct, with IRS being quite different from other tax bodies like the CRA.

 

[johnarb]

I did a bit of looking just now. It seems you may be correct, with IRS being quite different from other tax bodies like the CRA.

I could also just close the whole position and buy new Leaps calls in January expiration 1/2025

I think this is long term capital gains since it was opened more than 1.5 years (I'm not a tax expert, tho)