Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
I'm not a fan of Blockworks (company behind the conference), many of their partner companies and investors are TradFi wall street fiat boomers
But that has nothing to do with Eric's speech. You should look him up, he's an OG
Eric can easily walk away from crypto, probably a billionaire in fiat value and yet he continues to run into crosshairs of the authorities, i.e. Shapeshift cease and desist, now he's active in multi-blockchain dex (Rune/Thorchain)
He is not doing this to gain more fiat
I misspelled Erik. He's been mentioned on a few Bitcoin books, early Bitcoiner before 2012
An update on the MSTR calls position expiration 1/19/2024
4 months to expiration, position is down. On July 13, 2023, it was profitable m2m $40k
$27k risk capital
What I think will happen in November-December Bitcoin price will be $50-70k and this MSTR calls options position will lbe profitable again
[In order to capture the chart, I did all time period, so the loss is not accurate, added another $8k]
@johnarb I think you may wish to tread carefully with MSTR.
My short PUTs-LEAP on MSTR has been amazing. I believe I was able to harvest almost half the premium within a couple months or less. It seems to make more sense for me to close and take the profit, instead of waiting a couple more years just for them to expire and get the other half of the premium.
However, there is another thing to be aware of here. Even Saylor admits that the stock is being pumped up by people using it as an ETF proxy. And once the US gets flooded with BTC ETFs (like the rest of the modernized world), there will be a big sell-off of MSTR in order to swap to spot BTC in retail accounts.
Ok, so technically one can argue MSTR will still lift due to BTC ETFs rising, but no one really knows for sure what will happen here.
My short PUTs-LEAP on MSTR has been amazing. I believe I was able to harvest almost half the premium within a couple months or less. It seems to make more sense for me to close and take the profit, instead of waiting a couple more years just for them to expire and get the other half of the premium.
However, there is another thing to be aware of here. Even Saylor admits that the stock is being pumped up by people using it as an ETF proxy. And once the US gets flooded with BTC ETFs (like the rest of the modernized world), there will be a big sell-off of MSTR in order to swap to spot BTC in retail accounts.
Ok, so technically one can argue MSTR will still lift due to BTC ETFs rising, but no one really knows for sure what will happen here.
Update on the MSTR calls position expiration 1/19/2024
about 3 months to expiration
The position was worth $3k a couple of weeks ago, but things are better today, position went up over 100% lol, MSTR up 50 points rn, something something bitcoin price going up, prolly nothing...
Another 100% move on the position tomorrow will put me in paper profits, cost-basis for position is $27k
I came very close today to closing a short-PUT on MSTR and taking profits. I am perhaps getting a bit greedy here by trying to bleed out more theta first.
1.5 years since this trade was initiated
Been a wild ride on this long options calls position risk capital of $27k (cost of all the options in the position)
At the highest m2m valuation, the position was worth $52k (may have been higher intraday)
At the lowest m2m valuation a month ago (10/13/2023), the position was worth $2,500
So from the highest 100% profit to the lowest 90% loss, here we are at about break-even
lmao
Expiration is in 2 months
Closing the long 5 btc perp futures position and re-opening long 5 btc perp futures position
This will allow me to unlock the funds and withdraw, only leaving a little over 20k usdt as collateral, liquidation will be updated on a follow up post