Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
Just posting a random update, since today might be a really bloody Friday in equities (2.5 hours from closing)
It's been 2 months since I went into what I thought would be a grind-for-income yield farming mode for what I thought would be a 2-5 year higher for longer Fed narrative resulting in shitty bear markets
Bitcoin and cryptos bull markets happened
I have been faced with a conundrum for the past 2 weeks as I sit on m2m profits equivalent to a 4-5 years of yields I had projected 2 months ago
Wondering if I should close all the non-btc positions, book the profits and sit on the sidelines for the rest of the year or until there's an obvious sustainable bull market...
I am bullish until the end of May, the cliche sell in May and go away, but why not?
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/be-present-aff45d6421b4
Barbell approach portfolio - safest and riskiest, no middleground
Bitcoin is the safest position, no plans to sell any btc until it goes over $500k/ea
The riskiest assets - I closed all the yield farms that yielded less than 20% APR (i.e. Venus, Gains) and funneled the value to a yield farm that has 200% APR and holding an early-in-the-cycle project, a 3 crypto asset composition
I cannot close the Cake position as it's locked until Dec, but it's up nicely in value but the APR has gone down from 57% to 44% in the 2 months since I staked
I have a way to synthetically close the position by borrowing Cake from a crypto defi platform at 32% APR, so I may do that sometime after July. It's basically shorting Cake and when the unlock on my stake happens in Dec, can return the borrowed Cake. Delta-neutral $ price on borrowed Cake
So, that's the plan, hold for now, earn the yields, and sell in May, however, watching closely if there's something that changes the plan
Good luck crypto fam
Out of curiosity, why on earth are you bearish at this point? I read the post you linked, and sure, from a fundamental macro perspective, yes, it makes sense. I'm I guess one of those perma bears and have been waiting for Armageddon since 2009, and maybe we are finally here, but just because we couldn't break through 25k on a few tries doesn't mean this rally is dead... does it? Remember the post I made about the Wyckoff scenario from CTO Larson? If poke the 16k low, I think that would be awesome as I'd love to buy more bitcoin for a cheaper price!
But what am I missing about this rather gloomy post?
It kinda does depend on the equity market, which isn't looking good. It broke below a major trendline today (BTC also touched its TL). However, that doesn't mean we'll be falling off the cliff either IMO. Next area of support is 3800. But the overarching question is will BTC crack below 20,000 under pressure, which would probably coincide with 3800? My newbish guess is BTC will likely revisit 21500 level and reverse.
I'm bearish on the US equities, but always a permabull (not necessarily a good thing) on bitcoin and crypto assets
The Dow just became negative YTD and I think SP500 and NDX will follow soon in the next couple of weeks and yet, bitcoin is still up 39% YTD
How is that possible? Bitcoin is a global asset, which is a huge advantage to benefit from liquidity (money printer) outside of the US, i.e. China and Japan (see below)
However, Bitcoin and cryptos are under regulatory attack in the US
and bitcoin is treated as a risk asset even as Bitcoiners we do not agree and see bitcoin as a safe haven, nonetheless in the short term, the market price action gets pushed down by Hedge Funds shorting btc
and the tech/growth investors selling btc investments as a way to derisk their portfolio
As Arthur Hayes has pointed out, even the US may be adding to the liquidity fuel through TGA due to debt ceiling, but once that ends, that takes away one of the positives for bitcoin
I forget which ones, but at least a couple of investment banks have put out reports indicating a hard landing recession in the 2nd half as the lag effect of the Fed actions kick in hard
If I sell in May, it is only being practical and hopefully able to book a nice profit outside of long term bitcoin investment
But as I said, I'll keep monitoring from now until May, if I see Japan is still on a wild QE mode and China is also doing the same as they try to come out of the covid-0 self-inflicted economic woes, then maybe I don't sell anything
Steady lads... If banks start failing and cause contagion, the Fed may pivot hard and QE party will startup again
Also another possibility is that the market participants realize that bitcoin is not a risk asset, but a safe haven. Bitcoin competes with banks on a use-case and no counterparty risk if you self-custody your private keys
Also another possibility is that the market participants realize that bitcoin is not a risk asset, but a safe haven. Bitcoin competes with banks on a use-case and no counterparty risk if you self-custody your private keys
Lyn's got a great feed, very data rich. She also meme's like an og.
Lyn is a great person, so much of her knowledge and work and research she just shares with everyone for free
For some reason I feel at peace with this bitcoin and cryptos price crash
When I try to get a sense of the mood on CT and on discord channels, I get the same vibes from everyone, Dylan LeClair, Greg Foss, Lawrence Lepard, Lyn Alden...
One thing I can attribute it to, is that this crash is hitting TradFi harder than it is hitting cryptos
Normies are panicking, SVB is halted, wtf is that shit about??? Let it go to $0, why halt, reminds me of when GME and other meme stocks were halted and the game was rigged to protect the investors, er, I meant the billionaires
Bitcoin is never halted, nor are other cryptos, they trade 24/7, dump everything to $0, why the f*ck not, we ready for it
No FDIC insurance in cryptos, but I guess we're going to find out how good that FDIC insurance if Credit Suisse fails, and another bank fails and another bank fails, people may learn the concept of bail-in and we're not talking about some small country, it could happen here in the US unless Uncle Jerome git wit the program and starts the money printer on full blast again
Exciting times... I'm drinking my coffee with a smile rn
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I suspect the memestock saga isn't over, it's in it's education phase. #nakedshorts #moass #gme #amc #ape #directregistration
I've haven't been staying current with it but there seems to be some type of showdown in the works.
On another note, the troll for today..