I think the Fed continues the shitshow raising interest rates and when they stop, they will keep it there, "higher for longer", as they've been saying...
How long? maybe 2-5 years starting in 2023 (not counting 2022)
As a result, I think stock market continues its slow grind down, a nice orderly crash
What about Bitcoin and cryptos? I think Bitcoin price is at the bottom or near the lowest levels for this crypto winter
nfa
And with that belief:
- I'm utilizing a defi platform heavily to deposit btc as collateral and borrow stablecoin against it. This is a form of leverage, but nothing crazy, 80% LTV is the defi platform limit, but I stay below 65%
- I'm using the stablecoins to yield farm, mixture of old established beaten down (in price) crypto projects as well as newer, more promising but higher risk crypto projects
- I'm swing trading crypto perpetual futures, mainly btc, which has been on a very tight trading range, quite predictable the past couple of weeks, hope it continues
What a difference a few weeks can make...
When I wrote the post, my personal view was that we'll be in the doldrums of crypto winter for a while, not moving up a lot, but not moving down a lot, either
I put defensive positions like going into a bunker awaiting an onslaught attack to bring down btc to $10k give or take
Bitcoin has nicely gone up. My crypto portfolio has gone up about 50%, yield farms have gone up significantly in value, thus producing a higher yield in fiat terms
The value of collateral went up, so borrowed a little more and expanded the farms a little
From defensive to offensive, but comes with higher risks
If this turns out to be a bear market rally and bitcoin price goes down, below $20k, I'll cut down the farms to payoff the defi debt in proportion
Hope everyone invested in crypto assets are doing well. Stay safe and good luck