Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

I think the Fed continues the shitshow raising interest rates and when they stop, they will keep it there, "higher for longer", as they've been saying...

How long? maybe 2-5 years starting in 2023 (not counting 2022)

As a result, I think stock market continues its slow grind down, a nice orderly crash

What about Bitcoin and cryptos? I think Bitcoin price is at the bottom or near the lowest levels for this crypto winter

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And with that belief:

  • I'm utilizing a defi platform heavily to deposit btc as collateral and borrow stablecoin against it. This is a form of leverage, but nothing crazy, 80% LTV is the defi platform limit, but I stay below 65%
  • I'm using the stablecoins to yield farm, mixture of old established beaten down (in price) crypto projects as well as newer, more promising but higher risk crypto projects
  • I'm swing trading crypto perpetual futures, mainly btc, which has been on a very tight trading range, quite predictable the past couple of weeks, hope it continues

What a difference a few weeks can make...

When I wrote the post, my personal view was that we'll be in the doldrums of crypto winter for a while, not moving up a lot, but not moving down a lot, either

I put defensive positions like going into a bunker awaiting an onslaught attack to bring down btc to $10k give or take

Bitcoin has nicely gone up. My crypto portfolio has gone up about 50%, yield farms have gone up significantly in value, thus producing a higher yield in fiat terms

The value of collateral went up, so borrowed a little more and expanded the farms a little

From defensive to offensive, but comes with higher risks

If this turns out to be a bear market rally and bitcoin price goes down, below $20k, I'll cut down the farms to payoff the defi debt in proportion

Hope everyone invested in crypto assets are doing well. Stay safe and good luck
 
Long 10 btc perp futures @ $22,755

day-trading for now, bitcoin trades wildly on low volume for this weekend

Gambling on the down and up movement

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Long 10 btc perp futures @ $22,755

day-trading for now, bitcoin trades wildly on low volume for this weekend

Gambling on the down and up movement

Closed the long 10 btc perp futures position @ $22,650 (5 btc perps), $22,800 (2.6 btc perps) and $22,735 (2.4 btc perps) = loss of about 350 USDT

I think tomorrow will be a very good day for bitcoin price to go up

Weekend consolidation and chopping around above $22k means Bitcoin can support this massive run up to this level

I'll put a 5 btc perp futures position tonight before going to sleep
 
Bitcoin price has gone up quite a bit for the past 2 weeks and the other crypto assets are performing quite nicely

My other crypto assets, Fantom (FTM), SpookySwap (boo) and Equal have outperformed Bitcoin and the other ones have kept in line

I believe this is true for many other altcoins like Solana, and Ethereum

What does it mean?

The value is not going out of the cryptos ecosystem. This is creating a circular economy growth and I would not want to jinx it but this is a behavior of a bull market in cryptos

Are we in a bull market now?

Nope. Not yet. In my view, bitcoin needs to go above $50k before I can say it's a bull market

The signs are good, though
 
Long additional 5 btc perp futures @ $22,888

Some news of possible DCG fraud. Ark sells some GBTC. Not positive news

Closed whole position long 10 btc perp futures total + ~800 USDT (different price points)

Going to read up more on news and stuff

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Genesis bankruptcy announcement last night was the biggest crypto firm to file for bankruptcy

This is also the best news we can have during the crypto winter

This is now a confirmation that Genesis will not be able to dump any bitcoin or crypto assets on the market

DCG and Genesis and Gemini entanglement re: GBTC

It seems TradFi is not done f*cking the Bitcoin and crypto assets markets, yet...

 
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