Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
*** Post is for entertainment purposes only ***
An update but no planned changes on the MSTR LEAPS call options Jan/2024
Starting $ value of position $27K
m2m $ value is down big (see picture below)
position value went down to $12K at the low, went up to $52K at the high
---------
Still have plenty of time on the options, but the Fed is determined to go to over 10% on FFR (/s), why not?? Let's fucking go!!
Well that's a given, for any BTC maxi.
But as an exercise, what would make you flip your position. Convert most, if not all, of your BTC in ETH, a move that would have brought you MASSIVE comparable gains if done last bear market.
How bad does the Greyscale discount have to get?
Welcome back!! You were gone for a while, hope you're doing well
I do regret not participating in Ethereum ICO or buying Eth when it was less than $1 or less than $10
- But at this point in time, capital preservation and survival of the crypto winter is the most important for me
I did not think you were an Ethereum maxi? You think you'll get those huge returns on Eth-pos now going forward?
For reference, I went into Ethw and projects ecosystem, been yield farming and investing in projects
Ethw, LFGSwap, and POWSwap
- So far, my ROI is 200%+ (over 2x of invested capital) in less than 1 month time
If I were to do hindsight analysis, I should have gone all-in and converted all my BTC's, but that's not good risk management, so I have no regrets that I did not do it
And in that time, Eth-pos has been going down, ain't it?
[PS: adjusted the returns, lol, not paying attention to Ethw price that much, been busy yield farming, I thought it was still over $9/eth]
Interesting point, because ETH has significantly outperformed BTC during the last 6 months and also does not have the heavy sell pressures that BTC is now stuck with: the MtGox and Bitfinex inventory to be dumped.
An even more fun exercise is to compare both BTC & ETH performance vs alt L1s from Q4 2020 till now. Especially that key point when BTC broke 20k with vengeance.
MATIC/FTM/BNB/SOL are still up 10-30x from that day. BTC is down. Hmmm.
Not an ETH maxi but I consider it the superior asset, and it is the core asset of DeFi, NFT and Blockchain gaming. The market supports that notion, so do the blockchain activity metrics.
Plus, significant capital is still flowing around the ETH whale & dev community, and they are putting it to work, hence opportunities & money to be made.
I havent touched the ETHw forks yet, will see if anything long term serious develops there, because from where I am standing, all I see are games by the miners looking for exit liquidity.
Not interested in investing in Eth-pos, but I wish you well
I feel more comfortable holding Btc and that's in terms of my risk-reward assessment
Sure, Eth-pos may outperform Btc by 2x or 10x in the next year or 2 or even 5 years and 10 years but imho, it comes with higher risks
There's only one Ethw coin and mainnet
Other Ethereum-pow forks like Ethereum fair and Ethereum classic are out there, but have not touched them
Are you anti PoS? Seems like an emotional stance rather than logical one. EVM L1s already proved what really matters in crypto, and it is basically impossible to accomplish with PoW.
You fully acknowledge that you are committed to an asset with subpar returns, in return for supposed lower risk, although 80% dips vs 90% dips difference is irrelevant. Plus, lets see how the cycle lows match up of ETH vs BTC once the bull market resumes.
Some BTC maxis are still convinced everything else is destined to go to zero while BTC shoots up to $1mil and beyond in the next 5 years.
I just find it interesting that the previously preached narratives by not only BTC maxis, but also ETH maxis, have already been proven wrong by the market. Alt L1s should be down to 2020 levels, and yet, they are far from it.
It's not that I'm committed to subpar returns, but I'm committed to surviving the crypto winter without blowing up
examples of blowups: Luna/anchor/ust or deposits all your funds to Celsius and Voyager
I've made a lot of profits on BSC and Fantom, and I was invested in Solana ecosystem (too late, lost money), so I'm not anti-anything
- There is only one rule and that is to survive
Once the bull market is here, there will be many many many opportunities
I am good hodling Btc during the crypto winter, but we shall see what opportunities are available during the bull market and what I can use my Btc stack as risk capital
Incidentally, how have you been doing during this crypto winter?
I'm doing ok, and have mentioned it already so I have no plans to make any drastic changes to my strategy
There are many opportunities now, and quite a few happened this summer. Not in BTC land of course, LOL. Jack shit happens there aside from twitter sperging.
The programmers & devs dictate where the action is and they are not sleeping. This isn't really a crypto winter akin to previous cycle, where it was tumbleweeds on Twitter & Youtube, let alone anything actually happening on chain.
Right now, this is going off and burning much ETH:
https://xen.network/mainnet
I saw Xen on one of my Twitter feeds
So, you say many opportunities now... You have not answered how you're doing during this crypto winter
- Since the Merge, I'm holding good unrealized profits on Ethw and ecosystem
Eth-pos on the other hand went down from close to $1800 a day before the Merge and has crashed to below $1300 currently
I shorted via perp futures Eth on the day of the Merge and profited on the sell the news I predicted. Should have just held that and even added to the position until now, but was too restless
PS: You say you're not an Eth maxi but you keep talking about Eth as if it's a wonderful superior investment asset, but from my point of view it has crashed like a shitcoin after the Merge
And Ethw has performed very well after the Merge dump to $4.x
Last edited: