Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[NoahA]

Personally, I do not believe Elliot was a malicious actor in the crypto space

Sure, I agree with this as well. I don't know enough about him, but I doubt he was an insider specifically shilling certain coins. But he sounds just like a dumb millennial to be honest.

Everything in his video is hindsight bullshit like he should have sold, or gotten into AXS vs. something else.

What he calls passion is grown men making ape noises on discord. Jesus, this is market research? This is what he uses to plan trades?

Also, his video title is total clickbait. He didn't lose $50 million, it was just lost opportunity because he didn't get into things like SHIB which he would have put 10k into that he thinks would have made him millions.

In the end, he talks about staying clear of yield products and all the stuff that has blown up. Well no shit, anyone can make this call now. So as you can see, I'm not impressed by this guy at all.

 

[johnarb]

Sure, I agree with this as well. I don't know enough about him, but I doubt he was an insider specifically shilling certain coins. But he sounds just like a dumb millennial to be honest.

Everything in his video is hindsight bullshit like he should have sold, or gotten into AXS vs. something else.

What he calls passion is grown men making ape noises on discord. Jesus, this is market research? This is what he uses to plan trades?

Also, his video title is total clickbait. He didn't lose $50 million, it was just lost opportunity because he didn't get into things like SHIB which he would have put 10k into that he thinks would have made him millions.

In the end, he talks about staying clear of yield products and all the stuff that has blown up. Well no shit, anyone can make this call now. So as you can see, I'm not impressed by this guy at all.

Other than DOGE and SHIB, he roundtripped millions and tens of millions of $ of profits into much less or none at all

I roundtripped more than $600K of AMPL profits to a couple of hundred K, I roundtripped over $150K of Bears Deluxe profits to a loss, I roundtripped over $50K of Bored Apes profits into a $200K loss (mostly due to ETH price crash), and of course I roundtripped BTC and ETH $ profits by not selling all at the top

That's what the video is about, not cashing enough profits during the bull market

 

[NoahA]

That's what the video is about, not cashing enough profits during the bull market

But its all hindsight bullshit. Like he said earlier about getting a 3-5x was pretty good. Who knew you would get a 20x or 50x or 100x? Now that we have seen some coins do a 100x, do we use this as our new benchmark? If you now only hope for 10x, you're missing the big gains. Going forward, even a 5x might be hard to get. Then out of nowhere will come a 50x that someone missed out on, and then another video will be made about having diamond hands to make the generational wealth. He is big on making huge gains, and now all he is doing is talking about taking profits, simply because he missed out on the profits. If the alts really pump again, will he me taking a 2x or 3x as if he learned from him mistakes? And will he then make a video crying about all the gains that he missed from taking profits too quickly?

My point is you either appreciate the art of NFTs for some stupid reason, or you believe the ethos or the team behind a coin and ride it to the moon, or you turn into a crypto trader, and then there is no point in talking about all this bullshit but just focus on technical analysis and how the price action is unfolding.

What he is trying to do is to pump all the crypto based on fundamentals, and then talk about taking profits as a trader. In the end, I don't think he is good at anything other than being lucky. He says he likes the art of Fidenza... bullshit... he likes that he paid 100eth and hopes to unload for higher.

 

[johnarb]

But its all hindsight bullshit. Like he said earlier about getting a 3-5x was pretty good. Who knew you would get a 20x or 50x or 100x? Now that we have seen some coins do a 100x, do we use this as our new benchmark? If you now only hope for 10x, you're missing the big gains. Going forward, even a 5x might be hard to get. Then out of nowhere will come a 50x that someone missed out on, and then another video will be made about having diamond hands to make the generational wealth. He is big on making huge gains, and now all he is doing is talking about taking profits, simply because he missed out on the profits. If the alts really pump again, will he me taking a 2x or 3x as if he learned from him mistakes? And will he then make a video crying about all the gains that he missed from taking profits too quickly?

My point is you either appreciate the art of NFTs for some stupid reason, or you believe the ethos or the team behind a coin and ride it to the moon, or you turn into a crypto trader, and then there is no point in talking about all this bullshit but just focus on technical analysis and how the price action is unfolding.

What he is trying to do is to pump all the crypto based on fundamentals, and then talk about taking profits as a trader. In the end, I don't think he is good at anything other than being lucky. He says he likes the art of Fidenza... bullshit... he likes that he paid 100eth and hopes to unload for higher.

I completely understand your feelings, NoahA, but let's take the emotions out for second

Looking back or hindsight is the only way we can learn the lessons from this bull market and improve our methodologies for the next crypto bull market

-----------

So, one thing that resonated with me from the video is the concept of multiple sector bull market cycles, what he calls mini cycles

This is not something we experienced in 2013/2014 crypto bull market or 2017 crypto bull market

The lesson?

Understand the cycle (sector) that is in-play (trending). Pick your spot(s), and start taking profits as appropriate

--------

Another thing that resonated from the video is the concept of liquidity flow

Some of the mini cycles $$ came mostly from profits made in previous cycles, but a bunch of retail money came in when Tesla and Elon invested into BTC and mentioned DOGE. As an aside, Coinbase, Robinhood and other exchanges listed DOGE and SHIB to mainstream retail which became exit liquidity

So the ultimate lesson on liquidity was J Powell. I already mentioned on this thread that I wrongly thought BTC and crypto asets were going to be the safe haven as the Fed tightened

We need to be aware of money flows so we can gauge if mini cycles are about to end or the major bull market cycle was going into the bear market

------

I want to do better for the next bull market and the only way to do that is to look back which is thinking in hindsight

Like I should have done this and not that, sure it's painful but it's only BS if we do not learn or improve

Coulda woulda shoulda is painful but if we don't embrace it, then the pain will be repeated again in the future

 

[johnarb]

Sorry I did not tie the 2 lessons above

So, when the DeFi summer cycle had blow off top (towards the end of 2020/early 2021, the liquidity (money flow) was going into smart contract Layer 1's

Understanding money flow (liquidity) was important because if you did not see the new sector was taking the $$ from the one you're invested in, you're fighting a strong headwind

Imagine having a 2000% ROI in DeFi tokens and moving 10 or 20% of that to the SOL, FTM, AVAX in the early 2021??

(did not mention Luna, but it was $1 at that time and it was a smart contract L1 that was heating up ,ecosystem was exploding with new users and projects)

Then at some point, crypto gaming tokens was the sector sucking liquidity... Meme coins (doge, shib) was somewhere in there but liquidity came from retail non-traditional crypto players

I hope to use this very important lesson for the next bull market. Understand money flow (liquidity)

 

[NoahA]

I completely understand your feelings, NoahA, but let's take the emotions out for second

I completely agree to take all emotions out. But this would mean no "surprised face" thumbnails on videos and no catchy titles like "urgent" either! (but of course, its for us to take the emotion out of it... he needs to pump up his audience to get the views!)

Everything that you say you could almost do with price action to be honest. The incredible thing about crypto is that it can do a 10x in months vs. having to wait years for most stocks. And I agree that watching things like exchanges listing new tokens adds liquidity which is clearly highly bullish.

I just don't think this guy is that smart at all. He is essentially just throwing shit against a wall and seeing what sticks. Everything went up after the covid lows. The only thing he did right was to gamble vs. staying away from the table. When you get a 10x or higher if you're right, and just a -1x when you are wrong (meaning you lose everything), its still super easy to make money and appear smart. The dude wouldn't survive trading traditional financial markets. Now of course more power to him for picking the easier market with the huge upside asymmetry, but I don't see any value in what he is saying.

I honestly think that going forward, the 100x gains are gone. Even if SOL goes down to $20, its not gonna be the 100x that it was from $2 to $200. It will barely be a 10x, and that would require a miracle at this point I think for all the top 10 or 20 coins to reach all times highs. The stupidity of gaming tokens is I think also over. We have all seen this game now, and there isn't going to be another round of just buying up a bunch of random tokens and sitting back and waiting. Furthermore, none are even close to the ultimate lows from which they rose. Even SOL at $40 is a huge risk, so the asymmetry isn't there anymore where you can put $1000 into a bunch of coins as lottery tickets.

So I think most of these guys are gonna be struggling. They only did well in a raging bull market with at least a 10x upside on practically everything. Covid lockdowns forced people to stay home, and stimmy checks provided the gambling dollars. We won't have this same setup again I don' think, and the general public is so much wiser now after this last spectacular rally and bust. Going forward, I think crypto will be more so based on organic growth and concentrated with only the leaders doing well.

 

[Ed48]

Past performance is not a guide to the future. IE. the last bull market may not be a guide to the next one.

My view is, if you want to invest in crypto, stick to BTC (or ETH) and don't be greedy chasing the latest fad.

 

[johnarb]

*** Post is for entertainment purposes only ***

An update but no planned changes on the MSTR LEAPS call options Jan/2024

The position is about break-even m2m
The position was down over 50% a few weeks ago

Initiated the MSTR LEAPS calls position this week, but only half of my original planned risk capital
Looking at MSTR call options as a replacement for BTC options...

 

[Sprout]

I completely agree to take all emotions out. But this would mean no "surprised face" thumbnails on videos and no catchy titles like "urgent" either! (but of course, its for us to take the emotion out of it... he needs to pump up his audience to get the views!)

Everything that you say you could almost do with price action to be honest. The incredible thing about crypto is that it can do a 10x in months vs. having to wait years for most stocks. And I agree that watching things like exchanges listing new tokens adds liquidity which is clearly highly bullish.

I just don't think this guy is that smart at all. He is essentially just throwing shit against a wall and seeing what sticks. Everything went up after the covid lows. The only thing he did right was to gamble vs. staying away from the table. When you get a 10x or higher if you're right, and just a -1x when you are wrong (meaning you lose everything), its still super easy to make money and appear smart. The dude wouldn't survive trading traditional financial markets. Now of course more power to him for picking the easier market with the huge upside asymmetry, but I don't see any value in what he is saying.

I honestly think that going forward, the 100x gains are gone. Even if SOL goes down to $20, its not gonna be the 100x that it was from $2 to $200. It will barely be a 10x, and that would require a miracle at this point I think for all the top 10 or 20 coins to reach all times highs. The stupidity of gaming tokens is I think also over. We have all seen this game now, and there isn't going to be another round of just buying up a bunch of random tokens and sitting back and waiting. Furthermore, none are even close to the ultimate lows from which they rose. Even SOL at $40 is a huge risk, so the asymmetry isn't there anymore where you can put $1000 into a bunch of coins as lottery tickets.

So I think most of these guys are gonna be struggling. They only did well in a raging bull market with at least a 10x upside on practically everything. Covid lockdowns forced people to stay home, and stimmy checks provided the gambling dollars. We won't have this same setup again I don' think, and the general public is so much wiser now after this last spectacular rally and bust. Going forward, I think crypto will be more so based on organic growth and concentrated with only the leaders doing well.

Elliot has addressed this in his content. Without the visual marketing style, his youtube views aren't as good as when he does use those elements.

His channel is good for a particular view of the market, he and Alex Becker have gone all in on the crypto gaming narrative.

Your criticisms have validity.

 

[Sprout]

@johnarb, have you come across this DeFi project implemented via BTC? Interesting application to stack sats.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544405680660037636