Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

NoahA said:
I couldn't agree more. It's amazing to me how many people are waiting for some magical level before they buy whether it's 12K or 10K or whatever. What will it look like when we reach this level and the buying starts? Will exchanges even have enough coins when people start withdrawing?

Other than @deaddog who is hopelessly lost, most here want to buy some at a certain price. But if that price isn't reached and the chasing begins, it will get very interesting for an asset that cannot be faked.

@deaddog has trouble figuring out the value of Bitcoin and how to price it. I leave it up to governments and central banks to show everyone what the value truly is. The more they manipulate, the more reason they give for owning Bitcoin. And with the recent collapse of DeFi, it provides the self custody lesson quite well.

Just like these platforms couldn't honor withdrawals I wonder what will happen to the exchanges when people try and self-custody their Bitcoin. I imagine it will be the exchanges that will have to chase the price of Bitcoin higher.
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Besides NGU, Bitcoin's value is insurance against the unthinkable

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546518106142453762


I have families in Canada, but it could end up in the list above, it already had warning with that Emergency Act event recently, could happen again

And many of these people in China, Sri Lanka, Turkey and other places could have bought BTC when it was not too late and they would not be in such a dire situation right now

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546312756277743616
 
NoahA said:
Other than @deaddog who is hopelessly lost, most here want to buy some at a certain price. But if that price isn't reached and the chasing begins, it will get very interesting for an asset that cannot be faked.

@deaddog has trouble figuring out the value of Bitcoin and how to price it. I leave it up to governments and central banks to show everyone what the value truly is. The more they manipulate, the more reason they give for owning Bitcoin. And with the recent collapse of DeFi, it provides the self custody lesson quite well.
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Please let's get this straight. Just because I can't figure out how to value bitcoin and the fact I think it's a ponzi of sorts doesn't mean I won't speculate given the opportunity. It's what I do.

I have said all along that I'll buy when the trend changes. I've also said that I'll have a stop in place to protect my capital.

What I won't do is buy and hope, I won't hold bitcoin or any asset that is trending down and won't be affected by FOMO. I'm not buying because it might go to a million. If it's going to a million it will have to start making higher highs and higher lows first.

Now you have to wonder, if you can't trust the exchanges and have to self custody, how will you find a greater fool when you want to sell? And if fiat is on the way out, what will you exchange it for.
 
deaddog said:
Now you have to wonder, if you can't trust the exchanges and have to self custody, how will you find a greater fool when you want to sell? And if fiat is on the way out, what will you exchange it for.
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I'm going to ASSume that you really do not understand the importance of Bitcoin self custody

Let's say you have your $100K at Interactive Broker trading your favorite energy stocks, then 1 day, it was discovered that IBKR had exposure to EUR or Yen implosion and was cooking the books

Your money stuck

With Bitcoin, you only deposit to an exchange when you're selling

If Coinbase, or Kraken, closes down, you go to FTX or Gemini to sell your bitcoins

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Bonus, let's say they found out you contributed to the truckers, your account frozen. With Bitcoin, when you are able to get out of the country and go to Dubai or South Korea and sell there for fiat

Extra Bonus, when Canada follows China policy and shuts down, you'll be able to escape with your Bitcoins any time

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You buy car insurance not to get rich, but so that you can replace your car if you get into an accident

Bitcoin has no counterparty risks when you self-custody but this post is ASSuming that you you were not being disingenuous
 
deaddog said:
Please let's get this straight. Just because I can't figure out how to value bitcoin and the fact I think it's a ponzi of sorts doesn't mean I won't speculate given the opportunity. It's what I do.
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You're clearly not dumb if you trade for a living, so what I don't understand is how you don't think the entire financial system is a scheme of some sorts as well! You knock on bitcoin when it literally fixes all the problems that the FED and governments have caused not just in the last 12 years especially since 2008, but also since the FED was created 100 years ago, and essentially since many other forms of money were already tried.

The only thing the government has going for it is that it just easily papers over any stupid errors they make. Bitcoin clearly can't do this because you can't create it out of thin air.

Each time you say bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, you are essentially backing the monetary policies of every single modern central bank and government that is destroying lives in order to enrich themselves.

Its ok for people to be worried about the success of bitcoin, but to actually say that the way bitcoin works is worse than the way fiat created by central planners works means that you are voting for continued exploitation of citizens. It means you like governments starting wars and killing people, and you welcome the day that the wealth you think you had will be taken away very quickly. History tells us this is exactly what happens to every single world reserve currency and fiat currency. Even if you own land, who is going to enforce your rights to that property if the judicial system, and the police, are in chaos because the government is falling apart?

So when you keep saying stupid shit like "I don't know how to value bitcoin" over and over again, or that its just a ponzi scheme, it means that you really have no understanding of where dollars come from and what they mean. Dollars aren't magical, and the faith we put into the government is eroding at such a fast pace that I honestly don't see how there isn't going to be a bloody crisis for western nations within the next few years.
 
deaddog said:
Just because I can't figure out how to value bitcoin
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Oh, and one more question. What are company bonds worth if the FED doesn't step in and buy a bunch every month? If the ponzi scheme that is the government actually one day says that they are no longer in the business of using printed dollars to prop up and any markets, what will anything be worth? Who will buy your bonds? They say bonds are a bigger market than even equities. What is their value if you take away the fake FED institution that uses printed dollars in order to create a market and a floor for them?

What are US treasuries worth if the FED wasn't buying those as well? What happens if we can't get other countries to buy those treasuries because America likes to spend way more money than it makes and hence has to get someone else to pay the bills?

I just find it so ironic that you go to great lengths to wonder about the market for bitcoin, and yet you don't question the entire fake markets that governments create. The unwinding that you see in crypto is actually a real market. There is no artificial support. I'm more worried about the fake markets that are depending on every single word that the Powell says than I am about a market where people are spending their hard earned dollars to put a transaction into a ledger that they can later retrieve.
 
NoahA said:
Its ok for people to be worried about the success of bitcoin, but to actually say that the way bitcoin works is worse than the way fiat created by central planners works means that you are voting for continued exploitation of citizens. It means you like governments starting wars and killing people, and you welcome the day that the wealth you think you had will be taken away very quickly. History tells us this is exactly what happens to every single world reserve currency and fiat currency. Even if you own land, who is going to enforce your rights to that property if the judicial system, and the police, are in chaos because the government is falling apart?

So when you keep saying stupid shit like "I don't know how to value bitcoin" over and over again, or that its just a ponzi scheme, it means that you really have no understanding of where dollars come from and what they mean. Dollars aren't magical, and the faith we put into the government is eroding at such a fast pace that I honestly don't see how there isn't going to be a bloody crisis for western nations within the next few years.
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One thing I found about being a successful speculator is that you have to deal with what you have and take advantage of the opportunities presented at the time.
Right now in North America we are dealing in fiat with reasonably stable governments. That's the game I'll play until it changes.
How do I benifit by holding a declining asset?
 
deaddog said:
One thing I found about being a successful speculator is that you have to deal with what you have and take advantage of the opportunities presented at the time.
Right now in North America we are dealing in fiat with reasonably stable governments. That's the game I'll play until it changes.
How do I benifit by holding a declining asset?
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This is at least a much better answer than all your previous ones. I don't expect people to put their life savings into bitcoin, and I clearly also would have sold mine if I knew prices will drop like this so that I could accumulate much more at lower prices. But in North America, we are lucky to have stability right now, and we have to be aware that this can change at any time, and this clearly isn't already the case for many countries.

I had excess cash for a very long time that did absolutely nothing for years, so that was a guaranteed loss, and sitting in fiat is not a good long term strategy. I also bought silver in 2013, and couldn't understand why it wasn't gaining any value.

On a day by day basis, things look like they are ok, but its amazing how quickly things can change and we should be prepared. When people decide they need to do something, its usually too late. When bitcoin starts pumping, if you don't have a hardware wallet yet and know how to use it, and know how to transfer coins from the exchange to the wallet, it might prove to be quite the impediment at a time when its important to act.

Now clearly I'm not saying we need to prepare as if we are getting invaded by the Russians, but my point with the previous message was that when you fully understand what bitcoin and how it works, the only logical conclusion is to see how the central bank system with fiat currency is destined to destroy us all. It doesn't mean bitcoin will survive, but by not supporting bitcion, its a vote for supporting central banks and their continued tyranny over the people. We have no problem outing dictatorship regimes around the world, but central banks are dictators themselves against their own people, all the while disguised as good actors given that they operate in democratic countries. The funny thing is that nothing about the FED and their policies is democratic, since we don't vote for any of it, and nothing about the supreme court is as well, for the same reasons, which is clearly a mess right now also.
 
johnarb said:
*** Post is for entertainment purposes only ***

Bitcoin should be going up in price but the "contagion" with Luna, 3AC, Celsius, Voyager, etc are causing BTC to go down

I think soon, something will happen and BTC will spike up in price like in the good ole' days of Cyprus

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Sri Lanka bankrupt. Shanghai in lockdown again. Chinese bank runs. Argentina? Euro about to get flipped by USD and how about that Yen..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546162077336748034

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545820816692035584

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546168180388806656

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546247568257994753

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546330585664131072

https://twitter.com/hosekiapp/status/1546312756277743616
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sobering developments
 
deaddog said:
One thing I found about being a successful speculator is that you have to deal with what you have and take advantage of the opportunities presented at the time.
Right now in North America we are dealing in fiat with reasonably stable governments. That's the game I'll play until it changes.
How do I benifit by holding a declining asset?
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Really? Did you just ask this on a trading forum after your first statement?
 
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