Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
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*** Post is for entertainment purposes only
Today is Sunday and just having some thoughts. I don't have a job so tomorrow is Monday but just another day for me, I do see the stock futures are down big
I'm actually on a holiday with the family, still at a resort, we just wanted to have a getaway
Crypto investments are doing well. Lost $15K on Based Finance, but currently made up the loss with Snowy Owl m2m (no cash out, all rewards are compounded daily or within 2 days)
Got into PulseDao yesterday, position shows m2m profits of $1.7k, also just compounding rewards...
Both money-printers are strong, 7% and 8% interest per day, respectively
Anyway, had a "mini depression" earlier today. I put it in quotes because I may be using the wrong word or description
Here I am in a nice place, not worried about expenses or about costs of stuff. High inflation is not one of my worries. It was of course different 10 years ago, when we were living paycheck to paycheck and any emergency expense meant going deeper into debt
So what gives? I guess worried about the possibility of a nuclear war. Worried for my family. Money or any physical possessions are not that important when thinking of doomsday scenarios
As it relates to Crypto Macro trend subject of the thread, well, I guess Bitcoin and cryptos could shoot up to the moon if we have such a grim event but fuck even a hint of that is not on my wish, probably won't survive anyway, absolutely disgusted with the lives lost on this Russia/Ukraine war, and other wars, who knows if China invades Taiwan, what the fuck is going on with this world?
I'm just venting... I have thought about closing all positions and maybe adding more btc's to the portfolio, but then I'll probably keep on thinking about this shit more, at least right now, watching these degen defi volatility in prices and the need to compound distract me somewhat
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-10-chance-nuclear-apocalypse-112144416.html
Congrats for the incredible turn around. I have a friend who was doing much better than you, but he too got into crypto early and has enough now for multiple lifetimes. Its crazy to think that for the past few years while I have been learning to trade, the biggest opportunity just passed me by.
I honestly think you cannot worry so much about what is going on around you. These are games that Putin is playing with the upper echelon of society. What he is doing is of course horrible, but I've seen enough posts that also point out that the US is no different because it has started wars many times over the past few decades.
In the end, there is practically nothing you can do but lead from example. It is human nature to fight and take advantage of others. What Putin is doing is horrible, but how many people's lives has the FED ruined with their economic policies disguised as helping Americans? Nancy Pelosi is a multimillionaire, and each extra million she makes means someone else suffers. Neither side of the government can actually help in any meaningful way at this stage I don't think. Every policy by a government body will screw somebody else, unless they actually say no more spending, no more borrowing.
I read about so many failed policies out from California where they spend shit loads of money to help the less fortunate and then look at all the looting they have and immense debt that wrecks all the tax payers in the end anyway. Throwing more money at all these problems isn't making anything better.
So there is practically nothing you can do but be smart about how you guide your family through all this. Use your money in a way that you think is beneficial, because voting with your wallet is about the best form of support you can give for the causes that you believe in (ie. spending money on what you love and refusing to spend money on things that you deem bad).
Crypto will hopefully bring some much needed restraints to the system, and by sharing everything you do here, I think you have already done as much as you can.
And honestly, a nuclear war isn't so bad. Eventually the bombs stop, and many cities will be spared. The world population may heavily drop, and areas become inhabitable, but life will go on. The huge hit to the population will actually be a breather for the environment, a bit of a reset you could say.
Like markets, life moves up like a trend with retracements. Each great civilization has failed either through war or famine or changing weather patterns which lead to droughts. Something new and better always comes along in the end. A nuclear war just flushes all this out and life goes on. Look at the two bombs that were dropped on Japan and look at how vibrant Japan is now.
The world will be fine, so just make sure to protect those loved ones around you.
Like markets, life moves up like a trend with retracements. Each great civilization has failed either through war or famine or changing weather patterns which lead to droughts. Something new and better always comes along in the end. A nuclear war just flushes all this out and life goes on. Look at the two bombs that were dropped on Japan and look at how vibrant Japan is now.
The world will be fine, so just make sure to protect those loved ones around you.
I'm very happy to hear of your friend's success!! I don't have enough for this lifetime unless I am able to grow the value of our crypto portfolio
Also have to plan for our kids, want to help them out so they have a good chance at being successful
Yea, cryptos are a crazy opportunity for anyone in the world to have life-changing wealth. Who knows how many kids (college-age) in a 3rd world country that was gaming at a paid internet cafe that happened to stumble on bitcoin in 2009-2011 and mined bitcoins using one of those rented PC's and stored the private key on a USB or in an email
Here on ET there were many old posts from posters who are still around but somehow did not get a few hundred or even a few thousand bitcoins when the price was less than $100/btc
Thank you for the kind words of encouragement
I read somewhere that the nuclear bombs we have now are thousands of times more powerful than the atom bombs dropped in Japan and this is what worries me
Historical context of current events (pairs well with his how the economic machine works);
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One of the dynamics of newly introduced tomb forks is that the initially high APR has much to do with low TVL, premium priced share and multiples above peg, pegtoken. What I've been observing is that folks focus on pegtoken/FTM multiple and not referencing the FTM/stable pair's buying power. As TVL expands from slow money chasing high APR, they play for a little while as slow money keep autocompounding but then claim rewards into stables until they decide to pull LP, breaking it at the highs and causing a TVL migration cascade; then on to the next tomb fork.
The smart ones are the ones pumping out these forks continuously. I've been running into the same names on the various discords.
I'm still in pulseDAO but in a much reduced position and in an AC, same with Based. Code7 is looking interesting since the coupling to RE. Sidetracked into B00b but that was too degen and too much nsfw for me. I'm now looking for bottoms in these forks (2|3omb, Based); any that are actively innovating, building and whichever project that figures out how to incentivize long term holding of bonds are gonna rise from the ashes.
Congrats on enjoying your life, family and keeping your priorities grounded !
I was on Snowy Owl discord when a bunch of 2omb/3omb admins were in there, someone posted a screenshot of their admin roles on Snowy Owl
It's all good, we're just trying to make an honest living
I absolutely love Tomb fork protocol projects because of the game theories and incentives systems at play!!
Looking at your explanation above, there's so much to unpack. Having participated briefly in farming 3omb in the initial stage, absolutely saw the high APR (I was getting 20% daily that night, but was too chicken I only put $10K worth coz I couldn't believe how much I was getting for the LP rewards and that there was low risk), and the premium price of the 3share with very low circulating supply
I have a blindspot with AC's as I don't use them, but they play a role with locked tokens and generating yields through token rewards
I think it is important to acknowledge that Tomb protocol seiniorage projects are modeled after fiat ponzi. I like how initially the Tomb project if it established an algorithmic stable coin pegged to FTM could have acted as proxy FTM tokens in defi ecosystems, but I personally don't know if can ever be trusted given how easy the peg can be broken even on daddy Tomb itself
If we start with the premise it's a ponzi, we can plan accordingly. I'm a high APR chaser because of the downside protection it offers plus profit potential tailwind, it's like throwing a dart at 6-foot wide target from 10 feet away and any point on the target represent profits provided you get out before they clear the board
There's a lifespan
The 2omb/3omb model is the new standard now because it has expanded the lifecycle. Snowy Owl made a lifesaving move 2 days ago before sno death-spiraled when they released Sno single staking early on schedule. Team learned from 2omb/3omb mistakes of being complacent with peg. It's much harder to bring peg back above with bonds and other stuff because the trust on the ponzi may collapse
Snowy Owl released the SSS ahead of schedule because they want to make sure Snowy Owl is ready for the next phase, L2 implementation onchain in a few weeks. The equiavalent of 3omb to 2omb but not a separate project
PulseDao with the most experience on ponzi with hex is going multi chain expansion of the ecosystem, planning a launch on Avax soon, plus pulsechain in the future, everyone is incentivized to buy and hold tokens with airdrops and genesis pools carrot on a stick messaging. This is again just expanding the lifecycle and may fail once a certain TVL or circulating supply or whale profit taking takes place that causes a cascade of selling
How do we profit from all of these ponzi/tomb fork projects? What I learned from the 2omb/3omb is don't drink all the koolaid, just maybe a quarter. What I mean by that is that it is still important to believe in the team, the community, but plan for the exit as soon as you enter
Personally, I'm only entering the LP now, not going into the boardroom anymore. This has no timelock for easy exit at anytime. I want to start taking profits when the position is worth 300% of initial risk capital and also become very aggressive with profit taking especially on good pump days
And keeping an eye if the project is becoming weak and may fall apart. I almost sold out of Snowy Owl which would have been a huge mistake, lucky for me they saved the peg
Below the peg, there is no money printing and with no money printing, the project's purpose of printing money (crypto assets) is not present and no point to stay, imho
Thank you very much, Sprout!!
Crypto Macro trend for 2022:
WEF types are trying to either destroy big crypto or co-opt it. Obviously they will spring their own version of "digital cash" when they sense the time is right, but not before castrating Bitcoin (either by hacking/gaming it or outright demolition).
IMVHO.
WEF types are trying to either destroy big crypto or co-opt it. Obviously they will spring their own version of "digital cash" when they sense the time is right, but not before castrating Bitcoin (either by hacking/gaming it or outright demolition).
IMVHO.
Bitcoin will do well