Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
Cryptos is a new financial system that is being created and evolving as we live and breathe today
I wish I can everyone on ET that there's enormous opportunities due to the inefficiencies that exist in traditional finance and are being eliminated in decentralized finance through the use of blockchain and smartcontract technologies that never existed 4 or 5 years ago
"But... That continues to be my wish."
I need to examine some of these stables play given they are lower risk of IL as long as you trust the other side of the LP (i.e. bullish on FTM)
I like MIM as a stablecoin, saw on Solidex they are offering USDC-MIM 21% APR, which I have plenty of both but I'm just not focused or inclined to study and take a chance on Solidex platform if their smartcontract is audited and safe
Congrats on the eth 10x!!
My mfers shot up to 6.x Eth now down to 3.x Eth price floor. I got some Bears Deluxe NFT's that are collecting HoneyD tokens everyday. I got one onchainmonkey
On NFT's I sometimes wonder if I should just close them out and move the value to stablecoins since I don't follow them at all, but then, I pause and think to myself, shit, I won't have any NFT's and that's what everyone in the mainstream news are talking about!! haha
So I just hodl my NFT's...
I'm accumulating veNFT's in SOLID - getting non-dilutive position on SOLID emissions and they are tradable on paintswap.
Think NFT's with a revenue stream, a legit stream based on trading fees.
I read somewhere that NFT's providing utility tokens (i.e. NFT worlds, Bears Deluxe, Sup ducks, CyberKongz, etc) may be considered as security and subject to SEC regulations
NFT's that have no utility other than being creative art pieces might be safe from SEC
SEC is the best protection for non-accredited US investors from high yields as well as the opportunities for incredible returns available in the nascent cryptos financial system
Thank you SEC!!
BlockFi is no longer able to offer high yields (9% APY) to US residents but still available to non-US
Celsius Network, Voyager, Nexo are all under investigations for offering their high yields on crypto assets
Defi platforms deposits/lending are unaffected for now
The Cefi companies for borrowing/lending provide liquidity in the global crypto trading markets and now that they are being restricted, maybe this is a good thing for bitcoin and cryptos to start going up?
These companies are doing securities lending of cryptos assets that are mainly used to short Bitcoin and cryptos
I say good riddance to them and that's good for cryptos hodlers!!
Celsius Network, Voyager, Nexo are all under investigations for offering their high yields on crypto assets
Defi platforms deposits/lending are unaffected for now
The Cefi companies for borrowing/lending provide liquidity in the global crypto trading markets and now that they are being restricted, maybe this is a good thing for bitcoin and cryptos to start going up?
These companies are doing securities lending of cryptos assets that are mainly used to short Bitcoin and cryptos
I say good riddance to them and that's good for cryptos hodlers!!
that’s why they never equate to usd; ie 1 banana = 1 banana
On the last email update from Willy Woo (Bitcoin on-chain analyst), he gave us the bad news that he will be stopping the service
The reasons are included and while I do appreciate his integrity for not continuing the service that pays him millions of $ a year, I would still have preferred to continue paying for the email subscription as his commentaries were well worth the cost
----------------------------------------------------------------------
IMPORTANT: The Bitcoin Forecast will be coming to an end
This letter, number #50, marks 1 year and 4 months of The Bitcoin Forecast. In this time it has grown into the most popular paid market intelligence newsletter for Bitcoin.
I initially launched it as a one year experiment, with the idea to help retail investors navigate the 2021 bull market. This was something many of my followers had asked for. This letter, and my work in the industry, has always been for retail investors. Bitcoin’s core value is decentralisation and this letter was here to close the gap of information asymmetry between institutions and everyday people.
The reception was beyond my expectation with revenue growing into multi-millions. We nearly topped 10,000 paid subscribers, enough that Substack added BTC payments to its platform which I am very grateful for.
A law of life is that everything changes, and I believe now is the time to begin sunsetting this letter, my reasons are below:
As for the road ahead, comments are open. Many have suggested other ways to continue the community. Regardless, thank you for being part of this journey.
The reasons are included and while I do appreciate his integrity for not continuing the service that pays him millions of $ a year, I would still have preferred to continue paying for the email subscription as his commentaries were well worth the cost
----------------------------------------------------------------------
IMPORTANT: The Bitcoin Forecast will be coming to an end
This letter, number #50, marks 1 year and 4 months of The Bitcoin Forecast. In this time it has grown into the most popular paid market intelligence newsletter for Bitcoin.
I initially launched it as a one year experiment, with the idea to help retail investors navigate the 2021 bull market. This was something many of my followers had asked for. This letter, and my work in the industry, has always been for retail investors. Bitcoin’s core value is decentralisation and this letter was here to close the gap of information asymmetry between institutions and everyday people.
The reception was beyond my expectation with revenue growing into multi-millions. We nearly topped 10,000 paid subscribers, enough that Substack added BTC payments to its platform which I am very grateful for.
A law of life is that everything changes, and I believe now is the time to begin sunsetting this letter, my reasons are below:
- The maturing of the Bitcoin market means it's increasingly difficult to reliably forecast future price action, this was always going to happen, and I think it's at a point where the value proposition of this letter is now much less than when it started. I will always value the integrity of my work over revenue.
- Bandwidth: I will be launching new projects this year, and I would prefer to do a few things well rather than to dilute my efforts doing too many things badly. Much of what I’m working on will serve retail investors in a broader way than this newsletter can achieve.
As for the road ahead, comments are open. Many have suggested other ways to continue the community. Regardless, thank you for being part of this journey.
Large selloffs in FTM and SOLID last night due to this tweet;
I got liquidated on my 2.56x FTM-SOLID-lp on Tarot, apparently TWAP didn't offer as much a buffer as I had anticipated.
Upon further research, the tweet was poorly worded in that the UI's are being handed off. Contracts are renounced and immutable and continue to work as designed. If I had more dry powder I would be loading up but with the macro environment being what it is, more difficult to rationalize risk-on positions. Now just using AC's with positions already taken.
I got liquidated on my 2.56x FTM-SOLID-lp on Tarot, apparently TWAP didn't offer as much a buffer as I had anticipated.
Upon further research, the tweet was poorly worded in that the UI's are being handed off. Contracts are renounced and immutable and continue to work as designed. If I had more dry powder I would be loading up but with the macro environment being what it is, more difficult to rationalize risk-on positions. Now just using AC's with positions already taken.
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I'm sorry to hear you got liquidated. I was wondering what happened because I put a position on PulseDao (FTM-peg tomb fork) and seemed the price in FTM was holding up but the $ value went down
Snowy Owl (Joe-peg tomb fork on Avalanche) went up, so that's when I knew FTM price went down and I looked it up and it was $1.40'sh
Speaking of Snowy Owl, the peg got awfully closed to going below peg and I had ptsd from 2omb, lol, but luckily, the dev team released the SNO single staking and everything good again. I've been compounding the rewards on Snowy Owl so the position is in nice profit at this time
Re: macro trend, I'm just chilling, in stables plus biggest position is btc, so I feel like I'm on vacation with a few sneaky jabs at degen plays like Snowy Owl and PulseDao, but small positions not to be painful if lost, but a nice payback if it hits 5x to 10x
I got somewhat of a wake up call with the Ethereum/Infuria fiasco and glad it's limited to Ethereum (I think) at this time but... It makes me wonder if I should trade much of value from Metamask-based crypto assets to good ole' Bitcoin
I may add another btc to the portfolio
Good luck and stay safe!!