Crude Oil

Do you know why 95% of the traders fail? There could be a myriad of reasons, but my own opinion is that they don't "specialize" until they become really good at it. This is especially true when it comes to futures. I encourage you to stick to 1 instrument until you can read its price behavior like the back of your hand. This can take years. But it will be well worth it in the end.

But don't many instruments move in tandem with the larger economy?

You're never gonna see the Dow drop 10% and the Nasdaq do nothing.
 
But don't many instruments move in tandem with the larger economy?

You're never gonna see the Dow drop 10% and the Nasdaq do nothing.
Don't trade Crude while trading S&P. Don't trade S&P while trading Gold. Don't trade Gold while trading the Treasury. You get my point? Stick to one thing. Otherwise, you'll just become a master of none.

BTW if 2 or more instruments "moves in tandem" as you imply, why not stick to just one? There's no point of switching back and forth.
 
Don't trade Crude while trading S&P. Don't trade S&P while trading Gold. Don't trade Gold while trading the Treasury. You get my point? Stick to one thing. Otherwise, you'll just become a master of none.

Yea I get it. Especially when many of them are either redundant or opposites.
 
Hi,

I believe that Crude Oil needs to go back to 40USD, sooner or later. The problem is that it can take 6 or more months. I also believe it cannot fall bellow 10USD. I am trying to figure out how I can best put this theory into practice...

I have been playing with WisdomTree WTI Crude Oil 2x Daily Leveraged (Loi.L). I bought at 3,15; 3,60 and 4,20 - averaging at 3,90. If the meeting goes well I can see my return earlier than I thought, but if it goes wrong I believe CL will return to 20USD or less and I will need to wait a few months. My concern is that this being a 2X leveraged ETF, even if I am right and at the end of the year Oil is at 40USD I might not see any profit due to the nature of the ETF and the effects of volatility. Is my concern about this ETF justified?

I have at the moment around 10k in Loi.L. How would you play this? Any alternative way to invest in Oil? I don’t like Oil companies because they decline as much as oil when it comes down and do not follow when oil goes up.

Thanks,
Joaquim


XOM just below the money puts at 2-3 months out. If you get assigned, the div will be >10%, so you can hold.
Can oil really down any more?
Also - I've been pairs trading USO short against USOI (covered calls on USO) long. Been a good trade so far.
 
Although Natural Gas is often called "The Widow Maker," at times CL can be even more so, due to the extreme reaction to headlines and rumors. Especially now with the virus exacerbating risk asset swings in general.

The level of uncertainty in this oil market right now is amazing; thus the rewards could be astronomical, but if you are on the wrong side ... Ughh! At the moment I will only consider brief day trades.

If the recent "agreement" falls apart completely, the key price levels below 20 on WTI are the 2001 low of $17.15 a barrel and if it really crashes, the 1998 low of $10.35.
 
Do you know why 95% of the traders fail? There could be a myriad of reasons, but my own opinion is that they don't "specialize" until they become really good at it. This is especially true when it comes to futures. I encourage you to stick to 1 instrument until you can read its price behavior like the back of your hand. This can take years. But it will be well worth it in the end.

Your point regarding succeeding in specializing before you diversify has merit. Having been in futures for 11 years now, my observations are that you also need to find contracts that mesh well with your personality and energy level, including risk and volatility tolerance.

Not everybody can become a great oil trader, there are times the price action/volatility is exceedingly challenging, and usually quite different than say trading the Loonie. Gold is a whole other world, with its own quirks and manipulations.

Think about ancient hunters and how they had to know their prey and techniques very well. Their lives depended on it. Are you hunting rabbits with a stick, or mammoths with a Clovis-tipped projectile?
 
We're going down to 17-ish. Until then, they're gonna shake you down every step of the way. Up-down-up-down-up-down...


Shaking is good, lots of money be made, even if bullish, on the way down to 17 with shaking, i can agree that we are going down since we dropped after the meeting which was expected since the whole world was expecting a deal and it going up, obviously it cant be that easily, i liquidated in the morning and got back in end of the day
 
Don't trade Crude while trading S&P. Don't trade S&P while trading Gold. Don't trade Gold while trading the Treasury. You get my point? Stick to one thing. Otherwise, you'll just become a master of none.

BTW if 2 or more instruments "moves in tandem" as you imply, why not stick to just one? There's no point of switching back and forth.


One thing or one style??
 
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