Crude Oil

schizo said:
Crude oil futures is trading at 24.16 as I type, up +1.39%. With all the buzz surrounding OPEC cut, you'd think it would be up 5% by now. What does this mean? There's no hurry is the prevailing thought among traders. Traders will wait and see how this pans out in other markets like S&P, since gasoline demand is down so much due to worldwide quarantine. Currently S&P futures is down -1.45%. Should S&P tumble tomorrow, you can bet crude oil will follow suit and tank as well.
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For the first time since the virus crisis began...

There are less active cases in Spain than there were yesterday. Spain's curve is beginning to decline.

Italy will follow. Then the rest.

We'll be 90% past this in 3 weeks.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
For the first time since the virus crisis began...

There are less active cases in Spain than there were yesterday. Spain's curve is beginning to decline.

Italy will follow. Then the rest.

We'll be 90% past this in 3 weeks.
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You mean 3 months. We have a lot more people than Spain and Italy. We won't be peaking until Autumn.
 
schizo said:
Crude oil futures is trading at 24.16 as I type, up +1.39%. With all the buzz surrounding OPEC cut, you'd think it would be up 5% by now. What does this mean? There's no hurry is the prevailing thought among traders. Traders will wait and see how this pans out in other markets like S&P, since gasoline demand is down so much due to worldwide quarantine. Currently S&P futures is down -1.45%. Should S&P tumble tomorrow, you can bet crude oil will follow suit and tank as well.
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It means two things one is like you said they are waiting but i doubt crude will stay where its at it will either drop lower to the 17s or it means the second thing is its ginna go up but smart money is pushing it down to get you and other to think what they think then shoot higher dont forget the market is designed to fool the max amount of people max amount of time

A drop none the less is not far similar to
Gold during the gulf
War declaration it barely went up dew cents ans
Then was a great short

meanwhile i just bought more crude,, the swings in this thing open up nearby 24.5 down to 22.5 then up to 24.5 again and now again back down to 22.5 these swings are making me take an even smaller position long term and bigger positions medium term simply
Buy n sell the highs n lows of the day plus there is some
clear intraday supports that keep holding up all within the swing trade position personally i woudlnt day trade it as i have very little experience in day trading ie i would trade it intra day still within my swing trade position size and without a stop,, cost is i will
Miss out if it does go to
Higher range and iam out of the bulk of the position but if it keeps zigzagging a reward lies there
 
Always keep in mind that Trump now has a passionate interest in higher oil prices, just like in the past he wanted lower prices. So this is not a "normal" oil trading environment. The jawboning continues:


Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump
· 1h

Having been involved in the negotiations, to put it mildly, the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 Million Barrels a day, not the 10 Million that is generally being reported. If anything near this happens, and the World gets back to business from the Covid 19.....


Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

....disaster, the Energy Industry will be strong again, far faster than currently anticipated. Thank you to all of those who worked with me on getting this very big business back on track, in particular Russia and Saudi Arabia.


35K
7:31 AM - Apr 13, 2020
 
Another point of consideration is from the frequently excellent analysis presented daily by Ashraf Laidi''s group. His book was a foundational part of my education:

"Also worrisome is speculators's tourism in the oil market. Obscure people we follow on twitter for oil news are suddenly celebrities. Technical news are getting hundreds of retweets. People are trying to crunch the supply numbers and are oblivious to the demand side, which is more opaque than any time in history. In normal times you can reasonably peg down the supply/demand balance within 500K bpd. Right now the spread – even among good analysts – is 20-40 mbpd.

Those flows are creating incredible short-term moves that makes any fundamental foray into oil treacherous. Squeezes can be limitless but ultimately, so long as supply exceeds demand, there's no floor in oil."

http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/why-oil-is-different
 
The production cuts may not put a floor in oil prices, but they do provide some psychological support for the commodity. There will be fewer gap moves lower, which will mean lower realized volatility, alleviating a lot of the uncertainty. There's also the notion that OPEC+, US & others will be compelled to cut more if oil prices remain persistently low.

We could still go to $15 in WTI but it will probably be a grinding move lower. If prices become rangebound between $20 and $30 and WTI struggles to go below $20, the gap move risks will switch to the upside and shorts could be caught totally off-guard.
 
SunTrader said:
The obvious is never the obvious.

But it wasn't much of a pop. Then again neither were the cuts.

So it is only a matter of time before another drop comes.
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Exaaaactly on point,, the whole
World and traders were waiting saying if they make a deal and they gonna make a deal and prices gonna go up,, if it was that simple
Everyone would make millions
 
Atikon said:
I'm shorting it untill it hit's 20 (short term) or new news to additional cuts come out. 30million demand implosion met with a 5 mbd cut (adj) is not sustainable.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Storage-To-Hit-Its-Limit-By-Mid-May.html

will load up in 20 region. Sold my prior position at the ralley before opec meeting
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systematictrader said:
The reward is very little
To
Short
Now
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20% in 2 days, I'm fine with that. Waiting for tested bottom to load up again after tomorrows report
 
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