Crude Oil

[bone]

If you look closely, a lot times crude follow the energy index nicely.

You are making a very specific statement that Crude Oil follows a benchmark energy index - perhaps the ETF XLE is the most popular. Other way around. I am interpreting your statement in the most literal sense. If you have an IB account - look at the crude oil futures order book and the XLE equity ETF order book. The futures always leads the ETF. Or any index that correlates closely with crude oil for that matter.

 

[RedSun]

You are making a very specific statement that Crude Oil follows a benchmark energy index - perhaps the ETF XLE is the most popular. Other way around. I am interpreting your statement in the most literal sense. If you have an IB account - look at the crude oil futures order book and the XLE equity ETF order book. The futures always leads the ETF. Or any index that correlates closely with crude oil for that matter.

I think you confused yourself and the others. You are talking about two different things, one is the energy (commodity) index and the other is energy (stock price) index. They are totally different.

Can you explain why you stated:
Crude firmer as a consequence of Saudi/UAE commercial vessel sabotage attacks - and in the face of another massive equities sell-off. Impressive. And bullish.

 

[bone]

I think you confused yourself and the others. You are talking about two different things, one is the energy (commodity) index and the other is energy (stock price) index. They are totally different.

Can you explain why you stated:
Crude firmer as a consequence of Saudi/UAE commercial vessel sabotage attacks - and in the face of another massive equities sell-off. Impressive. And bullish.

You are completely bassackwards here. I have been referencing the broad equity market index (the S&P 500) throughout this thread and in the specific comment you referenced above.

I was referring to your specific post: "If you look closely, a lot times crude follow the energy index nicely" as being backwards. Again, in your specific post you are referring to "the energy index" [your words] which in fact generally speaking lags the Crude Oil futures.

 

[RedSun]

You are completely bassackwards here. I have been referencing the broad equity market index (the S&P 500) throughout this thread and in the specific comment you referenced above.

I was referring to your specific post: "If you look closely, a lot times crude follow the energy index nicely" as being backwards. Again, in your specific post you are referring to "the energy index" [your words] which in fact generally speaking lags the Crude Oil futures.

Interesting. Your original statement is completely wrong. Crude bullish with "massive" equity sell-off.

I do not recommend anyone listening to you with their own $$....

 

[VolSkewTrader]

Crude typically accounts for the biggest % of any energy or commodity index.

 

[VolSkewTrader]

The Fed's not lowering rates this year like the markets (equity and bonds) are foolishly pricing in. Oil prices will crash with equities and bonds if the Fed disappoints.

 

[bone]

Interesting. Your original statement is completely wrong. Crude bullish with "massive" equity sell-off.

I do not recommend anyone listening to you with their own $$....

LOL.

May 13, 2019:

Crude firmer as a consequence of Saudi/UAE commercial vessel sabotage attacks - and in the face of another massive equities sell-off. Impressive. And bullish.

 

[bone]

Crude typically accounts for the biggest % of any energy or commodity index.

Yes, and throughout this entire thread I have clearly been referring to the broad market equity index in my own posts. It was RedSun who made the inane observation that an energy index will lead the Crude Oil future.

If you look closely, a lot times crude follow the energy index nicely.

ANYBODY who trades knows that the Crude Oil future will lead an energy index (like XLE for example). But it is indeed a true statement that nearly all energy commodity indices and the crude oil future are quite highly correlated (>90%). So yes, in that sense of the term a hydrocarbon energy index will follow crude but not lead crude. I am used to working with clients on correlations, inter market spreads and lead-lag strategies so the specifics on what leads and what follows in a market micro structure context are rather important to me.

 

[RedSun]

Yes, and throughout this entire thread I have clearly been referring to the broad market equity index in my own posts. It was RedSun who made the inane observation that an energy index will lead the Crude Oil future.

ANYBODY who trades knows that the Crude Oil future will lead an energy index (like XLE for example). But it is indeed a true statement that nearly all energy commodity indices and the crude oil future are quite highly correlated (>90%). So yes, in that sense of the term a hydrocarbon energy index will follow crude but not lead crude. I am used to working with clients on correlations, inter market spreads and lead-lag strategies so the specifics on what leads and what follows in a market micro structure are rather important to me.

More arguments won't make it look any better.

As VolSkewTrader said, crude makes a big part of the energy commodity index. The correlation is extremely high.

Nowadays, with higher energy commodity prices and booming of US energy production, energy companies make a big portion of US stock index. Energy company stock prices are highly correlated to energy commodity prices.

Also energy demand and the energy commodity prices depend on the US economy. Stronger US economy, robust equity markets will drive energy consumption and energy commodity prices.

 

[bone]

More arguments won't make it look any better.

As VolSkewTrader said, crude makes a big part of the energy commodity index. The correlation is extremely high.

Nowadays, with higher energy commodity prices and booming of US energy production, energy companies make a big portion of US stock index. Energy company stock prices are highly correlated to energy commodity prices.

Also energy demand and the energy commodity prices depend on the US economy. Stronger US economy, robust equity markets will drive energy consumption and energy commodity prices.

That chart I posted above makes my post look great. Truly, you don't know what I am talking about when it comes to inter market lead-lag correlation relationships. I wish you the very best.