Crude Oil 2021-Q4

R

RedSun

Hope some CL traders can participate.

The $2 slide of CL seriously damaged the $85 price case. With the seasonality on the build side, fundamentals do not help a lot. With the tighter WTI/Brent spread, there is no art to ship US oil overseas.

It seems market wants to stay within $80 to $85 for the Q4. It remains to see what happens for the winter. The demand for oil will be still sluggish. The 1 MM bbl fuel switching predicated by Goldman Sachs is totally wrong. There is no such thing of fuel switching from natural gas to oil in US. Do not think we'll reach $100 any time soon....
 
Wonder if Goldman and BofA/Merrill analysts still maintain that CL market is tight and we'll be looking at $90 or $100 CL price soon? I just feel the CL rally was fueled by those monkey bank analysts.

A lot people load up CL contracts as inflation hedge only. But CL is not just a financial contract, but has the energy commodity underlying.

I figure those bank analysts never worked for energy companies.
 
Retail positioning has been getting crowded and could use another scare/flush, institutional still minimal.

The case for a steady grind in higher energy prices is still strong IMO but of course last quarter we overshot.
 
I doubt $80s level is sustainable. US economy is still sluggish. Some say we'll reach pre-pandemic level, that does not seem to hold water. A lot people have left the workforce. And a lot people have changed to work remote. US rig count keeps rising and energy production should stay at least steady.

Also, with Fed tapering and raising interest rate, US dollar will start to rise. That is bad for all global commodities.

This energy crisis is created by the excess money from the Fed. Bank analysts add fuel to the fire. Energy commodities are not store of value or inflation hedge.

Maybe Bitcoin is a better inflation hedge? If anyone believes the coins. :sneaky:
 
This $3.50 CL correction is really damaging to the chart. Long liquidation? No more buying on dips... The question is how long the $80 is going to hold....

More crude inventory builds are coming. Winter months are actually low demand months.
 
Seems like a worrysome short. One piece of bad weather could have this market surging.

There's not a lot of supply elasticity in the short term due to the transportation logjam.
 
Well, a retracement was overdue. I don't know much about oil, but I know a bull market when I see it. That is a bull market.
 
Additionally, stocks seem to be at a seasonal low.

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Weather? What CL has to do with near term weather? We use natural gas to heat homes, not oil, as the Goldman and BA/ML monkies said.

When CL was negative last year, we saw little or no evidence of fuel switching. Now Goldman and BA/ML monkies said we'll have 1 MM BBLs fuel switching from nat gas to oil. That is BS.
 
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