Crude Oil 2021-Q4
- Thread starter RedSun
- Start date
My automation gave sell signal at 85, but been readjusting parameters and didn't take it, but took buy signal/hedged today's close. Need Crude, Gasoline and Heating Oil to go higher to start selling.
Already short Nat Gas
Am extremist in way I trade long term commodities, been this way since 1991. One of only ways that tested out best for me. There are other's so long as I hedge.
Initial position very little of charting is used as I use more of 9 year extremes and relationships, add on positions and hedging open profits is all chart related.
I use monthly, weekly, daily and intray charts for adding on.
Already short Nat Gas
Am extremist in way I trade long term commodities, been this way since 1991. One of only ways that tested out best for me. There are other's so long as I hedge.
Initial position very little of charting is used as I use more of 9 year extremes and relationships, add on positions and hedging open profits is all chart related.
I use monthly, weekly, daily and intray charts for adding on.
Oil and NG are now politicized in a way they never have been historically. Which is why I won't touch it. For Biden speaking about opening up strategic reserves and Putin's energy blackmailing (guy should have been beheaded a long time ago)...there's no edge in predicting direction. Too unpredictable.
CL market is deja vu again. Overnight buying on OPEC, China export and travel opening.
Near term market fundamentals are still bearish. We probably have another crude inventory build. The Goldman monkey prediction of nat gas to crude oil is not happening. A lot people still stay home working. US has adequate CL supply. Also, Shell's gulf production has come online and it adds about 1.75 MM BBLs each week.
The global oil trade has been slowing. Both China and India has turn to coal and draw down inventory and try to stay away from the high oil price from Mid East. US gulf oil inventory has been very high. Not sure who is buying at $80+ level. Cushing stock probably starts to come up.
OPEC's action will only hurt themselves for the long run since both India and China have turned to coal for the energy needs. Both will accelerate the EV business and reduce the dependence on Mid East oil.
Near term market fundamentals are still bearish. We probably have another crude inventory build. The Goldman monkey prediction of nat gas to crude oil is not happening. A lot people still stay home working. US has adequate CL supply. Also, Shell's gulf production has come online and it adds about 1.75 MM BBLs each week.
The global oil trade has been slowing. Both China and India has turn to coal and draw down inventory and try to stay away from the high oil price from Mid East. US gulf oil inventory has been very high. Not sure who is buying at $80+ level. Cushing stock probably starts to come up.
OPEC's action will only hurt themselves for the long run since both India and China have turned to coal for the energy needs. Both will accelerate the EV business and reduce the dependence on Mid East oil.
From looking at the CL daily chart, it appears CL wants to test $80 again tomorrow. This $3 daily drop is so heavy and convincing. The stock prices won't help much.
Also, the selling volumes are much greater than the previous 3 daily volumes on up days.
Some of the Dec to Jan contract rolling probably has started. That will add to Dec contract selling pressure.
Also, the selling volumes are much greater than the previous 3 daily volumes on up days.
Some of the Dec to Jan contract rolling probably has started. That will add to Dec contract selling pressure.
It appears the December contract rolling has been underway. The news is not on the side of bull camp.
With OPEC+ aggressively jack up the prices and rebuffed calls to increase production, it forces China, India and Japan to tap their petro reserves for this winter. Both China and India have turned to coal and delayed the green initiatives. This is not for oil consumption for the near term. This going backward is not to OPEC's benefit.
It is an illusion to state that US oil consumption has been higher than pre-pandemic level. The overall labor force has shrunk. A significant numbers of works continue to work at home. The demand from international air travel has been over-stated. A lot people still do not travel overseas. Business travel is still very slow.
On the supply side, US rig count continues to rise. Small drillers want to take advantage of the higher prices and may want to sell the company at the highest possible prices. By next summer, US oil market may turn to surplus and fill the oil inventory back to normal.
Still like to know how Citi energy analyst predicted US oil price can reach $120 next summer.
With OPEC+ aggressively jack up the prices and rebuffed calls to increase production, it forces China, India and Japan to tap their petro reserves for this winter. Both China and India have turned to coal and delayed the green initiatives. This is not for oil consumption for the near term. This going backward is not to OPEC's benefit.
It is an illusion to state that US oil consumption has been higher than pre-pandemic level. The overall labor force has shrunk. A significant numbers of works continue to work at home. The demand from international air travel has been over-stated. A lot people still do not travel overseas. Business travel is still very slow.
On the supply side, US rig count continues to rise. Small drillers want to take advantage of the higher prices and may want to sell the company at the highest possible prices. By next summer, US oil market may turn to surplus and fill the oil inventory back to normal.
Still like to know how Citi energy analyst predicted US oil price can reach $120 next summer.
There will be all out war again in the Middle East, it has been way too quiet. They are preparing to light up wells producing oil since they are no longer stupid. They know how to hurt the ruling elite. This will help drive oil above $ 100. Watch and see. However, this is not tradable. Neither of us trades in the long term.
If Trump wins again, expect oil prices to fall down hard as it goes back to drill baby drill and the oil pipeline gets built.