Crude bounce.....

[loufah]

Quote from Aaron:

It just started trading. I think that remains to be seen.

Keep in mind that the USO price isn't going to track the price of oil. The goal is to have the <i>percentage change</i> in USO over the past 30 days (I believe) track the percentage change in the front month oil futures contract.

It's been doing a reasonable job of tracking the front-month futures (e.g. QMM06 is down $2.025 today, and USO is down $1.97). There are some quirks, such as USO displaying round-number support/resistance while the futures keep on moving.

 

[Ebo]

Man it's tough being a dyslexic trader!
Did I say $70 or $80?

I guess I better not quit my day job!


$70.425 Last.

 

[patbateman]

wow, this thing is getting killed right now! I am impressed at the fear gripping the late longs and the greed of the new shorts. I am definitely short term bearish. Gasoline broke 2.00 today, but rallied above it at the end. No matter. This will continue its slide to around 66-67 and then resume the long term uptrend. Get ready to get long in a week or two!

 

[GlobalFinancier]

Reverse and SHORT!
Decisive bearish pattern.
Sentiment also rising(damn, shoulda seen it but anyways)...

 

[w99]

Quote from 2gtt:

June 06 now at $69.94.

there are a lot of hedge fund managers that are fading this board.

Edward:

What do you mean by "fading this board"?

 

[traderguy02]

Quote from w99:

Edward:

What do you mean by "fading this board"?

I think he means "they" are doing the opposite of what the opinion on this thread suggest.....

 

[GlobalFinancier]

Ok, strong bounce, at resistance now, won't go up higher.

 

[GlobalFinancier]

Quote from traderguy02:

I think he means "they" are doing the opposite of what the opinion on this thread suggest.....

They'd be broke with shorting gold... we were all long.

I used to use sentiment as an indicator exclusively.
My findings were that sentiment is useful, but hard to gauge, and even harder to apply successfully alone, or as a major factor.
Use tech+fundamentals+sentiment+ other stuff then your odds increase exponentially.

 

[traderguy02]

Quote from GlobalFinancier:

They'd be broke with shorting gold... we were all long.

I used to use sentiment as an indicator exclusively.
My findings were that sentiment is useful, but hard to gauge, and even harder to apply successfully alone, or as a major factor.
Use tech+fundamentals+sentiment+ other stuff then your odds increase exponentially.

how do you quantify the levels of sentiment?

 

[Aaron]

Quote from Aaron:

Gasoline inventories were up 2.1 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization was up to 88.8% from 88.2% the prior week. Gasoline demand is flat from a year ago. All three numbers are bearish for gasoline and gasoline will drag oil lower with it.

This week gasoline inventories were up another 2.4 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization was up again to 90.2% and gasoline demand is down, yes, down 0.1% from a year ago. All three numbers are again bearish for gasoline and gasoline will drag oil lower with it.

Aaron Schindler
Schindler Trading