Crude bounce.....

Quote from Aaron:

This week gasoline inventories were up another 2.4 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization was up again to 90.2% and gasoline demand is down, yes, down 0.1% from a year ago. All three numbers are again bearish for gasoline and gasoline will drag oil lower with it.

Aaron Schindler
Schindler Trading
More...

funny how things work out...
 
Quote from Aaron:

Look how big the spread is from May to June crude. June is currently trading $1.63 per barrel greater than May. Imagine if you went long crude oil here and kept rolling it over for the next year and the spread stayed the same. In between rollovers, the price of spot crude would have to rise $1.63 x 12 = $19.56 per barrel just for you to break even.
More...

You can be sure the commodity index funds, which caused much of this contango to begin with, are looking into this problem of negative carry.

I suppose these funds are already spreading their book over longer dated futures or are taking correlated positions that have less of a contango problem.
 
I think the risk premium will start to decline over the summer as the hurricane season plays out, particularly after september ends and high gas prices might be hazardous to incumbent's health.

OTOH, a nice hurricane hit might spike it but good... limited risk on either side based upon time IMHO.
 
crude couldnt break the downward trend channel today to the upside. As of right now, you have to sell, save any fundamental news that would affect the price. There seems to be no direction to this mkt in the last month or so, very choppy...
 
crude will make new highs in the next 2 weeks. It will go up for the next 10 days in a row on its way to 82 dollars. Fundamentals will have nothing to do with this.
 
curious thing... Iran...the axis of evil..state sponsor of terror...overnite.....has all of a sudden become eligible for US subsidized light water nuclear (nu*Q*lar) reactors....amazing what tight US election numbers will do .....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top