Crude bounce.....
- Thread starter patbateman
- Start date
Lol.
Well give us bulls some time, we're still accumulating.
Soros still wants me to execute a 500 million barrel order, can't do it at once, can I?
Well give us bulls some time, we're still accumulating.
Soros still wants me to execute a 500 million barrel order, can't do it at once, can I?
have to admit...oil is not falling like i had anticipated...way too much strength off of support...why?...its beyond me...there is no technical or fundamental reason to support any of it
Lol, if you keep looking for reasons, you'll be broke in an irrational market.
The technical reason: Break of $70 double bottom, new high. Trend is up. Good enough.
I agree and disagree that there don't need to be "reasons." However, I do beleive that of all markets, surprisingly commodities do need to have a reason at some point. Its not like equities where you can have a dot.com and just run it off the market and crash it. With commodities there are clearly economic consequences as well as realistic implications of supply and demand. Whether you ignore them or not...fundamentals always always win in the end. With that said you have to wonder when the multi-year up trend in oil will end. It will most certainly have to end at some point. Clearly the president of OPEC would like to see prices come down as he fears a flight to alternative fuel sources in comparison to pricey oil. So how does the president do this? I guess he will just shove oil down everyone's throat until they finally choke. Something tells me presidents don't like to be "wrong."
Hehe, that's what they said. Remember, before Black Wednesday in 1992, the British finance minister said they would continue to keep the Mark/Pound above the predetermined rate.
And OPEC doesn't have that much excess production, does it?
And OPEC doesn't have that much excess production, does it?
well..thats a little bit of a different type of policy battle...as for OPEC...whether they can produce more or less, they'd never really tell us
OPEC is very good at supporting the price i.e. withhold production but they are useless at capping it i.e. they have very little spare capacity to increase production. The SPR is approaching a record high and oil is still over $70. A while back OPEC thought $60 was a fair price (i.e. read support level) so it's probably around $65 now. OPEC is far less concerned about high prices than the oil majors because their reserves will outlast those of the oil majors.
If the US really goes ahead with a windfall tax on the oil majors then they are basically giving OPEC and countries like China and Russia a whip to beat the US with. Hampering the oil majors ability to find new reserves (hard enough as it is with Chavez's manouverings, blocks in the Middle East etc.) is an issue of national security. Expect gas prices of $5 in the future.
If the US really goes ahead with a windfall tax on the oil majors then they are basically giving OPEC and countries like China and Russia a whip to beat the US with. Hampering the oil majors ability to find new reserves (hard enough as it is with Chavez's manouverings, blocks in the Middle East etc.) is an issue of national security. Expect gas prices of $5 in the future.
wow, such prescient remarks from traderguy, "the multiyear oil bull market will have to end at some point......" Obiously. but when? this year, 2 years, 5, 10 years???? This guy is hilarious. Such a BEAR. To be a bear in this market is financial suicide. I know what he is thinking right now.... fundamentals win! No they dont, not right now at least. We have the highest crude inventories since 98, yet prices are at all time highs...... someting is clearly happening that is not "fundamentally driven." I hope this guy is short because of fundamentals. I love it when guys are "smarter than the market" and get run over. Oil is going higher, how hard is it to just go with it? Look for a pullback to 68 or so and a resumption of the uptrend, making higher highs.
pat,
If this market is not fundamentally driven, then all the more reason for a collapse at anytime (now or weeks/months from now). You seem to be basing your decision to have a continuing bull market on pure psychology. The markets are nothing but psychology...though there are other aspects involved suppy/demand etc. My impression is that of all the market's aspects, psychology is the strongest yet "thinnest" influence. If psychology is the only thing holding this market up...fear has its place too.
If this market is not fundamentally driven, then all the more reason for a collapse at anytime (now or weeks/months from now). You seem to be basing your decision to have a continuing bull market on pure psychology. The markets are nothing but psychology...though there are other aspects involved suppy/demand etc. My impression is that of all the market's aspects, psychology is the strongest yet "thinnest" influence. If psychology is the only thing holding this market up...fear has its place too.