Crude bounce.....

steveosborne · Mar 30, 2006

There is indeed an element of self-fullfilment or reinforcement but that's because of the participating function --in addition to the cognitive function-- through which a situation and participants are related. Not because of the mutual influence or compensating forces of macro economic variables.

I find the concept of reflexivity a good one to explain the role and influence of information. Information is, to use my own term, the electricity in the economy and the markets.

traderguy02 · Mar 30, 2006

surprised to see oil up as much as it is....would love to know the current rationale...the way I see this weeks inventory is simply nothing more than gas companies slowing down production to try and create demand thus boosting pricing...whether they like it or not they are still paying high prices for crude when the shelves are stocked the most they have ever been this century..

dealer · Mar 30, 2006

Quote from traderguy02:

surprised to see oil up as much as it is....would love to know the current rationale...the way I see this weeks inventory is simply nothing more than gas companies slowing down production to try and create demand thus boosting pricing...whether they like it or not they are still paying high prices for crude when the shelves are stocked the most they have ever been this century..

It's part of "today's" trade: sell global bonds, buy commodities, buy currencies, buy stocks (maybe -Jury still out on that one...)

jsmooth · Mar 30, 2006

Boone Pickens: "We'll see $75 before we see $60 again"

during an interview with CNBC this afternoon

traderguy02 · Mar 30, 2006

did he say why?

--kinda like bill gross calling a 3% 10yr 8 months ago

GlobalFinancier · Mar 31, 2006

Quote from traderguy02:

surprised to see oil up as much as it is....would love to know the current rationale...the way I see this weeks inventory is simply nothing more than gas companies slowing down production to try and create demand thus boosting pricing...whether they like it or not they are still paying high prices for crude when the shelves are stocked the most they have ever been this century..

You want to know the rationale, the media feeds you some rationale.
A day when the market is down, people are afraid of interest rates go higher.
A day when the market is up, rate fears are easing.
A day when oil goes down after DOE numbers, Big Media tells you supply is ample. If supply numbers are good, and oil still goes up, the omniscient Big Media tells you traders are worrying about Iran.
The point is, no one knows the REASON for what's happening.. Like in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" only suckers want to know the reason for things(which usually happen after the price moves on the chart).

GlobalFinancier · Mar 31, 2006

$67 will be short term resistance for May oil.
$70 next after that.

traderguy02 · Mar 31, 2006

all i'm suggesting is....if there is no rationale...guess whats going to happen

nobody really cares about big media...if you do you shouldn't

GlobalFinancier · Mar 31, 2006

Quote from traderguy02:

all i'm suggesting is....if there is no rationale...guess whats going to happen

nobody really cares about big media...if you do you shouldn't

Well, you're the one asking for REASONS.
In "New Market Wizards" there was this guy who was on vacation, looked at oil charts and saw it was bullish.
He made buy orders.
3 days later...
Gulf War I begins.

traderguy02 · Mar 31, 2006

Quote from GlobalFinancier:

Well, you're the one asking for REASONS.
In "New Market Wizards" there was this guy who was on vacation, looked at oil charts and saw it was bullish.
He made buy orders.
3 days later...
Gulf War I begins.

well...i'm just trying to learn and add to what i believe i already know...so that is why I ask for reasons or rationale...i'm looking back in hindsight...not trying to predict the future with REASONS at the moment...clearly to me...speculation is a driving force in this market at the moment...