Crude bounce.....

Quote from GlobalFinancier:


The reason I don't like to give out too many reasons, is I don't want others to copy me ;).
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Thats a ridiculous way to protect your so called expertise. Even if you dumped everything you know out here, it doesn't mean the reader is going to know when or how to pull the trigger. Buy/Sell..what do I do..when do I do it?

This is what I have seen:
For the past month, crude (april contract) has tested a very strong resistance level of about 63.75 - 64.10 four times. Four times and it has been rejected. All the while crude inventories have been building to a 7 yr high. We are now closing in on the end of March and should expect to see all the big boys finishing up their buying for the summer driving season. So...between now and the Memorial day holiday look for the bears to kick in. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil down to 57-58 before the end of March, assuming we don't have some off the wall geopolitical problems (as is usually the issue). Common sense folks...if you have all the oil you need (inventory) why buy when you can get it cheaper later on?
 
Quote from traderguy02:

Thats a ridiculous way to protect your so called expertise. Even if you dumped everything you know out here, it doesn't mean the reader is going to know when or how to pull the trigger. Buy/Sell..what do I do..when do I do it?
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The indicators are all in public domain.
I don't really care much about technical indicators, it can be MACD RSI Stochastics whatever. All simple stuff, nothing really complicated, prolly a million people know it.
I do trade against news though... only long when media is quiet and so on...
Anyways, we'll see what the MARKET tells us, it's always right.
 
Quote from GlobalFinancier:

1)Oil has disappeared from media,

...The reason I don't like to give out too many reasons, is I don't want others to copy me ;).
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Thank you for the details.

Actually, (in JimCramer style) don't you want everybody to copy you right after you finish "entering" your position. That is when you make money ;)
 
Quote from traderguy02:

This is what I have seen:
For the past month, crude (april contract) has tested a very strong resistance level of about 63.75 - 64.10 four times. Four times and it has been rejected. All the while crude inventories have been building to a 7 yr high. We are now closing in on the end of March and should expect to see all the big boys finishing up their buying for the summer driving season. So...between now and the Memorial day holiday look for the bears to kick in. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil down to 57-58 before the end of March, assuming we don't have some off the wall geopolitical problems (as is usually the issue). Common sense folks...if you have all the oil you need (inventory) why buy when you can get it cheaper later on?
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Anybody in with me on this? haaaa...we haven't even had the inventory release yet..geeez
 
Quote from traderguy02:

you called it too spoofy....
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i win!

my problem is that i know its going to drop but how much is hard to judge at this point. I am thinking the May contract will drop below 61 by weds.. but after that who knows.. the market has this thing about oil going below 60 for some reason.
 
Quote from spoofy:

i win!

my problem is that i know its going to drop but how much is hard to judge at this point. I am thinking the May contract will drop below 61 by weds.. but after that who knows.. the market has this thing about oil going below 60 for some reason.
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Thats true. The April contract bounced off of 59.50-60 just as much as it did 63.75-64.10. The entire session of the April contract from Feb-March has been a swing trader's dream. I think that tight range had a lot to do with the equal amounts of price agreement/disagreement on both sides of the field. It was a buying period for the summer driving season as well as a an observable inventory build up. Plus there were some mediocre geopolitical "boil ups" to keep the price very indecisive. I think 60 will be a slight obstacle but with a strong inventory release on Wednesday combined with a "seasonal" sell-off it may be possible to make 60 the new resistance level for the next few weeks. Perhaps 60 is a bullish resistance level? It may tank more, I have a weird feeling that a lot of people are going to want to vacate the supply wagon.
 
Quote from spoofy:

i win!

my problem is that i know its going to drop but how much is hard to judge at this point. I am thinking the May contract will drop below 61 by weds.. but after that who knows.. the market has this thing about oil going below 60 for some reason.
More...

You win!...
For now:D
I'm ready to cut losses in case it hits my stops and proves me wrong
 
I probably underestimated resistance in my zeal to buy oil.
Anyways, did you actually short anything oil related(or buy airlines) yesterday? Trading on one's convictions is what counts.
And yes, I bought an oil stock yesterday...
 
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